Black Swan is a term and theory coined by Nassim Taleb that describes an unpredictable event whose effect is greatly disproportionate to its cause. Taleb outlines three criteria for such events: The event is a surprise (to the observer), the event has a major impact, and after the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected. Some examples are the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11 attacks.
Generally, the term Black Swan is used in reference to global, history-changing events. But as Doug McGruff, an emergency physician in South Carolina, notes, they can be personal too. Dr. McGruff outlines twelve tips on avoiding what he calls ‘negative Black Swan events’—occurrences that we consider unlikely that lead to an early demise:
1. Drive the biggest vehicle you can afford to drive.
2. Never get on a 4-wheeler ATV [quad bike].
3. Do not road cycle or jog on public roads/roadsides.
4. Do not fly a plane or helicopter unless you are a full-time professional pilot.
5. If you are walking down a sidewalk and are approaching a group of loud and apparently intoxicated males, cross to the other side of the street immediately. If confronted, run.
6. If your gas grill won’t start . . . walk away.
7. Never dive into a pool or body of water (except in a pool diving area marked 9 feet or deeper after you have checked it out feet-first).
8. Never get on a ladder to clean your gutters, or on your roof to hang Christmas lights. Do not cut down trees with a chainsaw.
9. If you are retirement age and plan on moving to a new home . . . think twice.
10. If anyone tries to force you into your car or car trunk at gun point, don’t cooperate.
11. If you are in any personal or professional relationship that exhausts you or otherwise causes you recurrent distress, then end the relationship immediately.
12. Don’t play the lottery . . . you might win.
Read the rest to hear his explanations. I’ll be cutting the article out and giving it to my wife to justify my decision to never clean gutters again.
(Via: Lone Gunman)
October 14th, 2009 | 9:48 am
[...] Meanwhile, if you haven’t already, read The Anchoress on the brown scapular and avoid any Black Swan Events. [...]
October 14th, 2009 | 11:53 am
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by First Things, Peter Johnson. Peter Johnson said: RT @ROFTERS: How To Avoid Being Killed By a Black Swan http://bit.ly/VayP [...]
October 14th, 2009 | 1:13 pm
Re: #4. How does one become a professional pilot without first flying a plane?
October 14th, 2009 | 2:24 pm
Good stuff, mostly, but, follow his advice, and pretty soon, our highways will be littered with Hummer drivers who lost battles to dudes in tanks. I’ve always asked people who say big cars are safer: safer for whom?
How ’bout we *all* drive reasonable-sized cars, if we must drive?
October 14th, 2009 | 3:36 pm
Is # 13 “Bury your talents”?
Some of these are obviously good ideas, but it also reads a bit like “12 steps for being mommy’s little sugar pants.” Do not cut down trees with a chainsaw? Come on.
If you followed #6, you would have to get a new gas grill every month.
October 14th, 2009 | 5:05 pm
If we follow the advice to avoid all relationships that cause “recurrent distress” that would pretty much put an end to marriage. Oh, and raising children.
October 14th, 2009 | 6:20 pm
Joe, Just before closing our camp, I took my boat for a test ride and I saw a bunch of birds on our lake and there appeared to be a few black crows in the flock. I honestly didn’t think I could catch up to these birds but believe “IT” or not, my supped up carb helped me to get right into the middle of this flock and to my surprise, these so called crows were actually black swans so what does that mean?
For what “IT”s worth I never hit any of them! :)
October 14th, 2009 | 8:56 pm
Latte Links (10/14)…
Happy Wednesday! I hope that you are having a good day today. It’s been a full one for me. I’m in the midst of hiring for a couple positions for the ministry I work for (we just announced the position openings yesterday). So if…
October 15th, 2009 | 11:36 am
[...] How Not to Die Filed under: Uncategorized — Matthew Schmitz @ 11:36 am Joe Carter presents some tips on how not to die: [...]
October 16th, 2009 | 4:46 am
Here in Australia, all the swans are black; there are only a few tame white ones, put in parks to give them an exotic feel…
Links
Blogs
Find Us
Contact