I’m tired so I’ll keep it quick. I was listening to Ed Rollins predict that Ron Paul will win Iowa. Since Rollins ran the campaign of the last Republican to win the Iowa Caucuses I’m not inclined to disagree. But . . . the right-of-center media environment has turned on Paul pretty brutally. The Weekly Standard had a lengthy story on bigoted statements in the old Ron Paul newsletters, and Paul’s comments on the CIA. Rich Lowry and Ramesh Ponnuru also give Paul some tough hits.
Most of Paul’s Iowa support is solid, but his share of Iowa support didn’t rise from the high teens in November to the mid 20s this month just because a bunch of Iowa Republicans started to like the gold standard. Paul is picking up the support of people who used to support Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich and are now on their fourth or fifth choice. They are with Paul (for the moment) for the same reason Richard Gere was so intent on staying in the Navy. A little reminding about what is wrong with Paul and a strong push by one of Perry/Santorum/Bachmann might get some of them out of the Ron Paul column.
I think that there are enough loose Paul votes, enough loose Newt Romney votes, and enough scattered Bachmann/Perry/Santorum supporters to provide a surprise if somebody (I’m hoping Santorum) gets hot.
Anybody want to guess the over/under on the number of comments?