I read this survey report with some interest over the weekend.
Entitling the report “Beyond Guns and God,” the authors clearly want us to cease clinging bitterly to our caricatures about the white working class. To that end, they “challenge five myths” about their subject.
- There’s really no difference between working class and college-educated Americans in their identification with the Tea Party.
- Religion and the work ethic remain alive and well.
- There’s nothing the matter with Kansas. While members of the white working class who earn more than $30,000 per year support Romney over Obama 51-38 percent, those with lower incomes or who have accepted food stamps in the past two years, dispaly somewaht different preferences (42-39 for Romney in the first instance, 48-36 for Obama in the second).
- White working class voters care much more about the economy than about social issues, regarding which they’re pretty evenly divided.
- There’s a strong strain of economic populism in this group, and less support for the free market.
There are all sorts of nuggets buried in the report, and not entirely captured by the executive summary. For example, on social issues, there are significant regional (and religious) differences within the working class. Northeastern members of the working class take liberal stances on same-sex marriage (57-37) and abortion (59-33), while their southern brethren are significantly more conservative (32-61 and 42-54). Stated another way, Catholic members of the working class (well-represented in the Northeast) are more liberal, Protestant (especially evangelical) members of the working class (well-represented in the South) are more socially conservative. Class is less important than religious affiliation here.
Virtually across the board, white working class respondents evince a preference for Romney over Obama (48-35). The most pronounced preferences come from Southerners (62-22), those over 65 (56-31), Protestants (56-27), and men (55-28). Women are evenly divided (41-41), while working class whites in the Midwest actually favor Obama (44-36). The authors don’t attempt to explain this last outlier, but I’d guess that some combination of lower income, use of food stamps, and labor union membership might be factors connected with it.
On the basis of what I’ve said so far, I can offer no good short-term political advice to Republicans. I suppose that if there were fewer labor unionists and more evangelicals in the Midwest, Romney would be the front-runner. Both developments may well occur, but not before November. Even more likely in the long(ish) run (but also not before November) is a continued migration of people from the Midwest to regions of the country (especially the South and Southwest) where there are fewer labor unions and more evangelical churches. To the degree that migrants adapt to rather than transform their surroundings, this might well lead to a more pronounced preference among white working class voters for Republican candidates as time passes.
I’ll have more to say in another post about what sorts of lessons we can draw from this survey.
September 24th, 2012 | 4:59 pm
I’m not clear as to the definition of working class. Anyone who didn’t go to college? In a certain salary range? Blue collar vs White collar? Salary vs. hourly?
September 24th, 2012 | 5:47 pm
32% of white working class Southerners support same-sex marriage? I would have thought it was closer to 10%. Huge Bradley effect there.
But if it’s a myth that the white South is Republican as a result of racial and cultural issues, why did it move so decisively toward the Republican Party after the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the emergence of the abortion/religion issues. One would think that if the economic views of white Southerners were more in line with those of the GOP, they would have discovered this sooner. Instead, the vast majority of white Southerners voted for Democrats before 1964, and soon thereafter, the vast majority of them voted for Republicans. Did they go from advocating big government to small government over the course of a few years? Or is there something more sinister going on?
Nixon’s political adviser Kevin Philips wrote the following in 1969: “Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more [blacks] who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the [racist] whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That’s where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats.” (I changed words that some may find offensive.)
September 24th, 2012 | 9:31 pm
My short-term advice to Republicans is to adopt Rick Santorum’s economic strategy of preferentially reducing taxes on consumer durables manufacturers which locate skilled labor blue collar jobs within U.S. territory. This would necessitate that the GOP vocally repudiate the falsehood that the only purpose of government is to promote economic efficiency.
The most recent U.S. census, on which congressional representation is based, was conducted by the cronies of ACORN and their ilk. For workers (white or otherwise) to move out of Democratic strongholds will simply cede key swing states to the Democrats. Walking off the playing field because the game is rigged may feel good in the short run, but it is not a winning strategy.
The GOP leadership is, however, too stupid to recognize the long-term failure of their strategy and too cowardly to ever press the offensive. Voters would do well to keep in mind that you can generally nudge a politician in the direction you would like him to go with enough money and grass roots pressure, but it is nigh impossible to transplant testicular fortitude into a crybaby compromiser.
September 24th, 2012 | 9:53 pm
Blue collar support for Obama gets flagged as tied to food stamps and unions without mentioning the auto bailout?
September 24th, 2012 | 10:25 pm
Mr. Hillsman,
Good point. The bailout surely helps to explain some of the difference between working class whites in the Midwest and elsewhere.
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