At first glance it seems to be a Romney nightmare scenario :

Which leads to Romney’s nightmare scenario: If things don’t turn around for Romney soon, those super PACs may give up on the task of electing Romney as president and turn to the task of encircling Obama’s second term with a Republican House and a Republican Senate.

Consider the numbers they’re looking at. A week ago, Obama was leading by 3.1 percent in RealClearPolitics’ average of polls, and he had a 74.8 percent chance of winning the election in Nate Silver’s electoral model. But that was supposed to change: Obama’s convention bounce was dissipating, and the plan was for Romney, the RNC and the super PACs to flood the airwaves, creating the conditions necessary for Romney to mount a comeback.

One week later, Obama is up by 3.7 percent in the polls, and up to 77.6 percent in the model.

The truth is that if Romney’s campaign continues to tank, the result will be felt up and down the ballot, no matter what those super PACs spend. Romney loses big and the Republican lose it all.

I kind of agree that the argument for voting for Romney turns out to be mainly the argument that Obama’s second term will be a disaster, AND Romney, as a competent, sensible guy, would be a significant improvement. But it only works if Romney is actually a contender.

So THE REPUBLICAN NIGHTMARE SCENARIO is that Romney slides into irrelevance. How could that not happen if he doesn’t do well in the debates?

We cant’t deny the evidence (for example from Florida today) that Mitt’s position is a little weaker every day.

Look at this no toss-up states map. How could it be that Mitt has retreated into only McCain territory, given the president’s record and all?

Articles by Peter Lawler


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