Comments on: Debates Matter; Babies Matter More

By: JonathanR.

JonathanR. — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 04:58:41 +0000

“Some people are perhaps unready to have children until their late thirties.”

If most of your adult population are unready to have children until their late 30′s, then something is wrong with your adult population.

By: Abelard Lindsey

Abelard Lindsey — Sat, 06 Oct 2012 22:01:34 +0000

In contrast, I view the CDC 2011 report as a very positive development. It says that those with more financial resources are having more kids and those without are having fewer. You will also note that the biggest decline in fertility is among the NAM’s and the lower income and less educated. This is a very positive development because it means the idiocracy that is bandied about by the HBD types will not happen.

There is another reason why this is very positive. It is argued that robotics and automation is going to reduce the amount of employment, particularly at the lower end of the economic ladder. If this is true, the last thing society needs is to have a large youth population that can’t find jobs because of automation.

I view a long-term slow decline in population as a very benign trend. Japan is experiencing such a trend. Yet, Japan actually has higher living standard than 20 years ago and is more affordable.

By: Michael PS

Michael PS — Sat, 06 Oct 2012 11:40:47 +0000

John Uskglass

It is not so much a smaller population, but a declining one that gives rise to problems.

A declining population is an ageing one, as each generation is smaller than the one preceding it. The population of dependent elderly increases and the population of working age shrinks.

The number of women of child-bearing age also shrinks, so the downward trend becomes more and more difficult to reverse.

Then consider the economic effect. “As it ages, the population will spend less and save more for retirement. That is, demand will shift from present goods to future goods, i.e., securities. The price level of present goods falls. The price of future goods rises, that is, the compensation for waiting for the future declines, and the rate of interest falls. The ageing population trades surplus present goods for future goods, that is, exports goods and purchases securities with the proceeds, shifting the current account balance to surplus. The exchange rate will rise. In other words, we have Japan.”

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 20:09:51 +0000

Romney’s strong debate focusing on the free market is a positive step towards weaning the country off of cradle to grave entitlement Western European style philosophies of Obama. These recent US fertility statistics only display the decaying fruits of what have been going on in Western Europe for decades. Mark Steyn brilliantly expresses this in his books “America Alone” and “After America”. Failure to bring America back in line with its founding economic principles will lead to further erosion of families through the unsuccessful experiment of Government as “Benevolent Provider”.

By: John Uskglass

John Uskglass — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 19:36:07 +0000

Largely I agree, but I do have some questions.

1) Why is a declining population necessarily a bad thing? You are right, we are leaving less people behind. But won’t those less people then be better able to enjoy the resources we have available to us? Many would argue that we have far too many people already and that it may be good for the population to decline for a bit.

2) Couldn’t encouraging early parenthood lead to some of the very problems typical of dysfunctional families? Some people are perhaps unready to have children until their late thirties.

Just some thoughts.

By: Kevin Jackson

Kevin Jackson — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 17:20:28 +0000

I’d be curious to see this coupled with abortion data. For example, even though teen births have declined, I wonder if teen abortions are up the same or a greater amount over the same period.

Either way the picture is, as you say, not rosy for the United States.

By: Stephen Baker

Stephen Baker — Fri, 05 Oct 2012 17:12:58 +0000

David, I am not at all optimistic about the lower teen pregnancy rate. I highly suspect the lower rate is due to abortion, “morning after” pills, and other contraception. Don’t you think?

Thanks for the post.