Today’s studies show that Romney ‘mo from the debate has come to an end. The result: Everything everywhere seems to be well within the margin of error, and the national polls really are all just one percent one way or the other. Romney arguably has a microscopic lead, but it didn’t grow (or shrink) today.
Pete said that when Romney is flourishing, the result is a tie. When he’s flailing, Obama is up four or five. Pete was right.
That doesn’t mean Romney can’t win. It does mean his margin for error—in every sense of error—is much, much more narrow.
On the accuracy of polls: Remember they were pretty accurate in 2008, and there’s no better science (in a way that can’t be explained that well scientifically) than taking an average of all the available polls—as does RCP.
On lying: Pete has convinced me that Romney believed what he said about his tax scheme, even as he convinced me that the scheme is not that serious a proposal. I’m happy to repeat that there’s no evidence that Mitt lies more than the president. And it’s not criticism, exactly, when I report that the president is somewhat better in putting forward deceptions we (not including Carl, of course) can believe in.