So here is the RCP link and now for a few quick thoughts,

1.  Obama has pulled ahead by .4% in the RCP head-to-head polling average.

2.  Obama’s average job approval rating is 49.9%.  So I ask one more time, which group is likely to be larger, Obama approvers who vote for Romney or Obama non-approvers who vote for Obama?  My gut says that the second group will be larger.  But . . .

3.  Which group do you think is larger, decided Obama voters who are saying to pollsters that they are Romney voters/undecided or decided Romney voters who are saying they are Obama voters/undecided?  I don’t know if either of those groups are very large but my sense is that the second group would be larger.

4.  You can cherry pick swing state polls to make it look like there are enough swing states that are a virtual tie and then believe (hope) that the remaining undecideds will break strongly for Romney.  You can tell a non-crazy story that Romney might win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio . . . But wouldn’t a Romney supporter feel a lot better if Romney was up 2.8% in the aggregate of Ohio state polls rather than down by 2.8%?

Articles by Pete Spiliakos


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