Obama and the Democrats, all the experts are bragging today, had a much more “metric-driven” campaign. They had a much better handle on who would vote and why, and they were much better organized with paid guns who knew what they were doing to get their guys out. On election morning, they pretty much knew they were going to win. They feared surprises, of course, because they didn’t achieve total control. But their real uncertainty only extended to VA and FL—which they didn’t need. They focused their campaign on nailing down a majority of the electors, and they did so quite scientifically. Compared to the Democrats’ technocratic elite, the Republican evangelicals and big-money libertarians with their SUPER PACS—beginning with the Koch Brothers—were clueless. Karl Rove used to know stuff and know how to use it. No more.
All the Republican projections to the contrary were wishing, hoping, and praying. They were very short on dispassionate thinking. We lost, let’s admit, because we were out-thought and so out-gunned.
The argument about whether the Republican message was too conservative or not conservative enough is beside the point. Blaming ordinary Americans for being suckered by a superior marketing machine is shifting the blame from where it belongs. It’s not that Romney’s commercials etc. and campaigning message were all that intelligent (as Pete repeatedly pointed out). They were just rather naive and ineffective.