2 Comments

Mike Melendez
March 14th, 2013 | 10:46 am

Just looking at titles, “In Papal Elections, Are Longshots the Rule?” is absurd. Nobody really knows how to make odds on papabile. It’s not the elections that go “dark horse”, it’s the media and the odds makers, both of whom simply don’t know.

Mike Melendez
March 14th, 2013 | 10:49 am

And now having read Nate Silver’s article, he essentially says that the media and odds makers don’t know, though he does take a long time to do it.