Ukraine’s Problem

Keith Darden writes in Foreign Affairsthat the main problem in Ukraine is not Russia but Ukraine.

It’s dangerous to ignore the fact that Russia is exploiting divisions that have existed in Ukraine for a long time: “inattention to Ukraine’s internal demons reflects a dangerous misreading of current events; the struggle between Russia and the West has been a catalyst, but not a cause. The protagonists in this conflict are subnational regions. The EU association process, and especially the protests, repression, and revolution that followed, activated very deep and long-standing divisions between them. Unless Kiev deals with its regions and installs a more legitimate, decentralized government, Ukraine will not be won by the East or the West. It will be torn apart.”

Given this situation, “the solution will also be Ukrainian. The country might not be able to fix its centuries-old divides, but it must finally craft institutions to accommodate them.”

The new Ukrainian government is dominated by western Ukrainians as much as the government they ousted was dominated by the east and south. Right now, “a region containing 12 percent of the population” controls “the majority of the top government posts.” Russians may be fomenting discontent in the east, but the discontent is already there to foment. A government strongly oriented toward Europe will only make the problem worse.

Ukrainians want to keep their country together, and Darden thinks that constitutional reform is the best solution: “Call it what you want: decentralization, federalization, regionalization. The label makes little difference. Kiev needs to transfer some very substantial powers, including those over education, language, law, and taxation, to the regions. It also needs to make the officials who hold such powers democratically accountable to elected councils and governors. The Russian plan to federalize Ukraine, which, in reality, is a plan to turn Ukraine into a weak confederation where the central government is largely ceremonial, is a step too far. It is a recipe for dissolution and Russian absorption of the territory, not a solution. But there is certainly a deal to be made between Ukraine’s regions that will satisfy its regional power bases, appease its neighbors, and keep the country whole.”

Without constitutional reforms to the current “winner-take-all political system,” Ukraine will remain unstable, and a source of global instability.