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Saturday, February 27, 2010, 10:00 AM
James Poulos

Whatever you want to call the doctrine that America must continue indefinitely to use its ideology as a tool in proactively working to shape world order, the key point is that such an effort may today be desirable and essential on the one hand and self-destructive and unsustainable on the other. There is nothing preventing such a paradox from being true, and much working in its favor. In particular, the paradox could be true if the alternative to Americanist interventionism was so risky, unmanageable, and dangerous that American leaders would be derelict to permit it. Indeed this is the root argument of the National Review and Weekly Standard wings of the Republican Party.

To compel and justify their approach, it is not enough — and I think Lowry and Ponnuru recognize this — for the United States to be possessed of a unique character in the world, or a uniquely salutary character, or for the United States to possess those things at a moment when we enjoy a particular kind of opportunity to spread it about the world. It must also be true that the fate of the world, including the US itself, is inescapably bound, right now, to the conviction among America’s leaders that these things are true and must be acted upon in comprehensive, unwavering fashion. Any leader who fails to have, and enact, those convictions is, on these facts, un-American, no matter how sharp, well-meaning, or even patriotic.

Arguing the merits of this case is important, but I’m more interested in whether thinking harder about the future than the present might shift the terms of the current argument in decisive ways. Specifically, I want to make the following claim: the fate of the world and the US does now demand something broadly similar to what Lowry and Ponnuru describe, but, a fortiori, it demands the re-creation of an international system in which the US stops playing the role Lowry and Ponnuru advocate, and ceases to require from its leaders the matrix of conviction and action they advocate as a matter of duty.

This re-creative project is apparently a challenge that daunts even the steeliest neocon. Yet it also offends the most principled paleocon. For international policy thinking on the right, this is a serious, perhaps fatal, problem, and it explains the relative sanity but also the limits of the realist approach many smart friends and colleagues put forth. I like realism a lot, but I am unconvinced that it can reconstruct an international geostrategic order that will free the US from an unsustainable, poorly borne burden on terms finally acceptable to us. Unfortunately, most idealists on the right seem convinced that no such project is possible because the rest of the world is not, in any combination, able to make up an order acceptable on our terms. I believe that such a conclusion, though perhaps all too valid now, must be made to change starting now: the most fateful task set before American policymakers since the height of the Cold War.

This is the frame in which our foreign policy debates should be taking place. As yet, we’ve utterly failed to adopt it — at great cost in resources and, even more important, time. Any takers?

5 Comments

    Samuel Goldman
    February 27th, 2010 | 11:49 am

    Count me among the skeptics, James. If we’re going to get out of the empire business–as we must, sooner or later–we’ll have to acknowledge that we can’t shape the world at our pleasure.

    In other words, we can’t impose an imperial exit strategy through which everything will turn out just as we’d wish, but unsupported by our hard power.

    Probably the best thing we can do to maintain stability is to get serious about working with China–which means accepting its dominance in East Asia. Our colleague Spengler been pushing something like this for a while.

    James Poulos
    February 27th, 2010 | 5:54 pm

    You tease! I’m not talking about a free hand around the world, as you seem to hint by getting specific about China. But China already dominates East Asia, and we’ve never had a problem with that. I’m talking about rebuilding a world in which China does not dominate most of Asia and Africa, a world in which Europe is flourishing, not failing, a world in which India, not Iran, prevails. Should the fate of the world run counter to our interest, really terrible things are likely to happen for a long time. People touting a turn inward with all haste are not being frank enough about how unpleasant things are likely to get if we don’t get cracking on the order that will inherit what we leave it. Maybe we can’t create that order no matter how hard we try. But if that is true, we should all just be Paulistas or something.

    Samuel Goldman
    February 27th, 2010 | 11:13 pm

    Well, if that’s what you have in mind, I fear it’s game over–with the exception of India and Iran. I don’t think China can be prevented from dominating Asia and developing an even stronger position in Africa. And Europe is finished as a world power. I’m not a Paulista, and I don’t think that this prognosis means that we should withdraw into ourselves and batten down the hatches. But seriously tough times ARE ahead–and in my opinion we should be thinking about how to weather them rather than planning a last efflorescence of imperial glory.

    James Poulos
    February 28th, 2010 | 7:35 am

    Somewhere between duck and cover and Custer’s last stand is a sane, assertive foreign policy. I have no doubt that you and I could cash that out in practical terms, but I worry a bit more about our clashing ideological armies (including the ‘moderate’ FP version of Broderism, Keohane-based ‘complex interdependency’). If Europe is finished and China is sure to dominate the half of the globe that isn’t finished, well, that sets up some stark choices for the US — choices that too many commentators remain unwilling to name and tally up in their proper grim context.


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