Comments on: OTB?

By: M. Miller

M. Miller — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 04:24:10 +0000

Republicans need to remember that the American peoples disappointment with Obama’s first term is not enough to guarantee a win in 2012. We need to choose a true conservative contender. If the republican party chooses a RINO or a weak challenger, like another John McCain or Bob Dole, they lose.

By: Robert Cheeks

Robert Cheeks — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 20:00:33 +0000

Because of his obvious incompetence and failures as a president, I’m pretty sure Barry will not be able to recapture the Stupid White People (SWP) vote. That, alone, may doom his efforts to seek a second term.

By: Flagg Taylor

Flagg Taylor — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 19:44:50 +0000

Jonathan Last has an interesting piece on this over at The Weekly Standard. One interesting point: He says no President since FDR has been reelected without expanding their share of the popular vote. Can Obama do better than 53% or win with a smaller share and break the pattern?

Question for the experts like Pete, Peter and Jim Ceaser: What does the Democratic party look like in two years and how does that affect Obama’s reelection chances? It’s been noted that the Dem caucus is now more liberal since many of the moderates lost (e.g. Ike Skelton). Obama kept these folks on board with his agenda and told them he’d have their backs. Look where that got them! Will there be some sort of backlash by those moderates that remain? There are 23 Dems up for reelection in the Senate in 2012, some in red or purple states–e.g., Webb, Conrad, Tester. Will they or can they assert themselves on principled grounds for more centrist policies than the Pelosi/Reid camp? How might this affect Obama?

By: Peter Lawler

Peter Lawler — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 18:07:28 +0000

Pete is exactly right.

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 16:49:38 +0000

The Democrats got about 45% of the congressional vote in November. That tracks pretty well with the President’s job approval rating and might be a fair proxy for how he would have done this year if the turnout had been exactly the same (which of course it wouldn’t have been.) He would have lost to a non-scary Republican. If you tweak the Latino and African American turnout up to the 2008 ratios and have the Democrats do as well they did among those groups in 2010, the Democrat share of the popular vote goes up to a little more than 47%. He still loses but it is closer. Now keep in mind that Republicans won 60% of the white vote in a favorable turnout environment and near the bottom of the labor market with the Democrats holding undivided control (and blame) of the elected branches. Republicans were winning a huge fraction of persuadable whites.

Republicans could repeat that performance among whites (and the right campaign might even make gains among Latinos) if the labor market stays the same or (gulp!) worsens, but if the unemployment rate is trending downwards, then Republicans better pick their fights over the budget really carefully, pick their words even more carefully, and run a good presidential campaign in 2012