Well, I’ve been waiting to use this headline–an erudite reference to the GILLIGAN’S ISLAND theme song–in reference to Gingrich and his second and vengeful ex-wife. I thought I’d better use it now, just in case Newt unexpectedly drops out after a poor showing Tuesday.
The polls in Florida show Romney’s lead widening, and it’s possible they underestimate what his real margain will be–due to his industry in getting his people to vote early. There’s nothing obvious Newt can do to turn things, which is probably why Mitt shouldn’t be going as negative as he is against Gingrich in these final days. The Santorum surge is certainly very modest, although enough to cause him to finish well ahead of Ron Paul. Said surge, of course, is also hindered by all that early voting. It’s difficult to see how Rick can meet the challenge of February campaigning in those random states. My advice: Bet everything on Minnesota and Michigan. Probably won’t work, but probably is better than certainly.
Professor Ceaser might be right that Mitt hit a ground-rule double on his Declaration statement (when read). But it did nothing for me when said. And we still have to be stunned when a candidate studies enough to hit a theoretical home run that wasn’t simply fed to him by some theorist.
I just read part of a softball biography of Romney, which did remind me that he is a very good guy. He raised his five sons in the Boston suburb of Belmont, where Charles Murray is locating all those irresponsible and ungrateful bourgeois bohemians. Mitt is a kind of genuinely bourgeois, deeply religious, big-family guy living in Belmont. We probably should appreciate that more than we do. So there’s nothing wrong with a bourgeois Declaration backed up by a fervently American yet deeply transcendent (Mormon) faith. Mitt needs to work on getting the electoral advantages of who he is down, because the Democrats are going to come after him ferociously with the patriarchal, “traditional” downsides.
PC is certainly right that Santorum had the advantages of being able to take a position above the real combat in the recent debate. But he certainly did so well.
In the one shoot-out between Rick and Mitt, Mitt was wounded really badly. Santorum sold the point that Romney won’t be able to campaign effectively against ObamaCare, given how similar it is in structure and weaknesses to RomneyCare. I kind of admire Romney’s determination not to take Paul Rahe’s advice and radically dissociate himself from his own work. So far nobody is pushing Ted Kennedy’s role in helping MASS not to have to pay for its new entitlement. And if you don’t have to pay, you don’t have to raise taxes.
Having said that, Romney deserves some kind of high commendation for his overall performance in that stupidly huge number of debates. And a month (February) with only one debate it in deserves not only the gratitude of every American but is an opportunity for Mitt to consolidate the advantages he certainly has earned.
I’d say (keeping in mind my predictions are never right) there’s about one chance in three there’s still a real campaign by Super Tuesday. And Gingrich and Santorum have about equal chances of still being around. Because of my irresponsible, fantastic buying into the chance for the brokered convention, I’m probably too much about hoping that my vote in Georgia will actually mean something.
January 29th, 2012 | 2:01 pm
Peter notes the key point, that while Mitt is a Mormon, after you get past the theology, he appears to Americans as the archetypical WASP. I made this point here before, but after I did I got a nice note from one of my grad students. It came after Mitt won New Hampshire and appeared with four (or five) of his sons standing behind him. The grad student said, referring to the sons, “but they forgot their lacrosse sticks.” if mitt gets the nomination, “tone” will be an issue. but as against a card carrying member of the intellectual elite and a card carrying member of the financial elite, i’d like to think americans have their priorities straight and dislike intellectuals more. newt did mitt a favor by forcing the publication of the tax returns. it did seem to free mitt in some way about the personal embarrassment of being among the 1% of the 1 percent. it lifted a psychological burden. the overkill on newt probably comes from the experience of iowa. you think you have squashed him, but here he comes again–to switch from gilligan’s island to another pop image–a bit like freddie krueger. not to dramatize, but the thursday night debate (on my birthday, no less)–and the sunday debate,too– strike me as “historical,” perhaps eliminating a great threat to the republic. And all of the establishment endorsements in the world could not have done that..it had to be done on the stage. so for that i credit mitt. i think i agree with peter–or i hope–that this week will mean that the alternative to mitt, if he does not win, is now more likely rick or someone not in the field, rather than newt…the real choice of 2012 can be made, without the election depending mostly on personal character… unless, of course, you still can’t count freddie out….
January 29th, 2012 | 5:13 pm
It just occurred to me that me and the beloved visited her rather brilliant cousin, a designer of secret gummint stuff, in Belmont, Mass. during our honeymoon, where it seemed everyone drove a Benz.
January 29th, 2012 | 6:15 pm
There are more Mormons that you’d might expect in Belmont. Surely a little oligarchy is less offensive than cultural contempt. An unfriendly critic might say that all the circus candidates are rallying around Newt–Palin, Cain, Perry etc. A fairer critic can hear the agony of the Tea Partier who just isn’t going to get a candidate worthy of his devotion.
January 29th, 2012 | 6:53 pm
“A fairer critic can hear the agony of the Tea Partier who just isn’t going to get a candidate worthy of his devotion.”
Rather depressing considering I am taking you and Pete’s subtle advice and rooting for the Evangelical Rick..God’s Will be done in these matters, however, which I think, is what the Greeks were hoping. My beloved, has suggested that Barry may be modernity’s Nebuchadnezzar.
January 29th, 2012 | 8:21 pm
Pete just did well in laying out the limits of Rick. Nonetheless, he is worthy of devotion. But only a miracle could get him to the nomination.
January 29th, 2012 | 10:16 pm
Never been to Belmont, but Salt Lake is really CLEAN, as in the bureaucratic kind of clean. And with all the talk about compromise and efficiency I’ve been hearing from Mitt lately, it does have me wondering how much room for wandering we’ll have under a Romney presidency.
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