I’m still thinking over this post from David Frum. Frum argues that Republicans are unlikely to make large gains among Latino-Americans by putting Marco Rubio on the ticket and would be better off trying to win over Asian-Americans by nominating the Indian-American Jindal for Vice President. Frum is right that term Latino embraces lots of different national groups. I’m skeptical about how much putting the Cuban-American Rubio would help Romney with Mexican-American and Dominican-American voters is say Virginia. My sense is, if Rubio performs well and is seen as a credible vice presidential candidate, Romney might get a more sympathetic hearing among some non-Cuban-American Latinos. Whether that translates into a significant number of votes depends on the quality of Romney’s message and media strategy (and conditions most of all.)
But I don’t see how putting Jindal on the ticket helps very much with Asian-Americans as such. The term Latino conceals a lot of internal diversity, but the term Asian-American is even more problematic for these purposes . I’m not sure that picking Rubio will, in and of itself, help Romney with Mexican-Americans, but I see even less reason to believe that picking Jindal does anything to help Romney with Korean-Americans or Vietnamese-Americans. At the very least, there is a plausible argument that putting Rubio on the ticket would improve the Cuban-American turnout and Republican margins among Cuban-Americans in the key swing-state of Florida. I’m against using ethnic politics as a factor in picking a vice presidential candidate, but, to the extent that ethnic politics is any consideration, it cuts in favor of Rubio over Jindal
But it doesn’t matter. There are large downside risks in picking Rubio. Rubio has been a Senator for less than two years and has no executive experience. Yeah, I know Obama didn’t have a lot of federal experience either. But Obama spent 2008 running on a platform of middle-class tax cuts, and a whole bunch of new spending at the low price of repealing the Bush tax cuts and repealing some tax breaks for oil companies. What Obama was running on didn’t seem threatening to the median voter. Obama also had the advantages of a sitting Republican President with approval ratings in the low 30s and a financial crisis that could not have been better timed to benefit his campaign. Romney is running on some pretty major (and mostly not-at-all understood) entitlement reforms that will change the lives of millions of people. Good for Romney, but these policies are going to be a tough sell and Obama’s approval ratings are in the 46%-48% range. If Rubio comes off as a cynical gimmick choice, Romney’s image as the competent, realistic guy who can be trusted to do what needs to be done, is going to be damaged. Jindal’s record as an executive in cutting spending + improving government services + energy extraction + a lower-than-the-national-average unemployment rate is practically a ready made advertisement for Romney’s message.
Though, as a matter of rhetorical style and breadth of experience, I think I like Virginia governor Bob McDonnell better than either Rubio or Jindal.
May 8th, 2012 | 1:13 pm
I belong to the Japanese-American Citizens League, and don’t recall any stories in their weekly newspaper featuring anything about Bobby Jindal. The bulk of membership is in Hawaii and the Left Coast, so it tends to be another Democratic Party affiliate, even though it was FDR who put Japanese Americans into concentration camps for three years, and before that had publicly campaigned for the 1923 amendment to the immigration laws that banned further immigration from Japan. I don;t think the JACL or other Asian-oriented political organizations would give Romney any credit for picking an Indian-American as his VP. The fact that American bureaucracy has lumped India with China and Japan into a single “racial” category of “Asian” does not create any special affinity among the many diverse ethnicities on that continent. After all, much of Indian culture is a descendant of the same Indo-European language and racial group that spread out into Europe.
May 8th, 2012 | 8:41 pm
Raymond, that all sounds right to me. There might be some media coverage of Jindal as an “Asian-American”, but it would be nuts to assume tht it leads to any Republican votes among East-Asian identifiers or to use that kind of identity politics as a reason to pick Jindal.
May 8th, 2012 | 8:59 pm
It’s not truly executive, but Rubio was the speaker of the Florida House of Reps. I’m a native Floridian, and my friends involved in Florida politics all thought that he did a good job during a tough time (2008-2010, when the recession hit Florida as hard as it did anywhere else). That alone renders him more experienced as a leader than Barack Obama was.
May 8th, 2012 | 10:09 pm
Pete, is there any reason to believe that Jindal would significantly help Romney even with his own ethnic group – Indian-Americans? I doubt it. Of course, I also doubt that Indian Americans are a large enough group in any state potentially in play to influence the result.
You don’t mention it, but I think another problem with Rubio is his unmodulated and unreflective democracy-spreading talk, which is reminiscent of George W Bush’s second inaugural. Obama would love to turn the election into another referendum on the Iraq war.
May 9th, 2012 | 7:00 pm
Stephen, true as far as it goes, but unfortunately there is more to it than that – and not only becuase of media bias. The Republicans are ( at the moment – who knows what will happen) running in a less favorable electoral environment that the Democrats in 2008. It isn’t the the environment is UNFAVORABLE, it is just not as historically favorable the way it was 4 years ago for the Dems. The Republicans also aren’t running on a free lunch. Romey is running on some potentially scary-souding reforms and being reassuring is going to be at a premium though reassuring doesn’t mean “moderate” in the Susan Collins sense of the term.
djf, I think it is likely that some nonzero number Indian-American identifiers without a strong partisan identity would be somewhat more likely to vote for a Romney-Jindal ticket than say a Romney-Portman ticket. I don’t know how many. Having Dukakis on the ticket probably increased Democratic margins among Greek-Americans in 1988 (though Dukakis was at the top of the ticket.) But you are right about the numbers and concentration of Indian-American voters. Putting Jindal on the ticket to win the votes of Indian-Americans is only slightly less insane than putting him on the ticket to win over Korean-American voters. There is prudent cas for Jindal as running mate but it has 0% to do with ethnic politics.
I think you have a point with Rubio. There is also something about his speaking sound that puts me off a little. He is very good – far better than the average Republican and much more attention grabbing than even very good speakers like Bob McDonnell. There is just soomething about some of his speeches that come across a bit hysterical and over-the-top. I don’t bring it up because I’m not sure if this is really a problem or if it is just a personal reaction on my part that has no bearing on anything.
May 10th, 2012 | 4:52 pm
Pete, FWIW, I share your reaction to Rubio. He strikes me as the Republican equivalent of the children of Ted and Bobby Kennedy who went into politics (and are now mostly out of it). Hair, teeth, and shrill, simplistic rhetoric. Sue me if I’m being unfair.
May 10th, 2012 | 5:40 pm
djf, well I wouldn’t go that far or even close to that far. Rubio comes across much brighter, much more humble, and much more tolerant than any of the most recent generation of Kennedys to seek elected office. Compare Rubio’s speeches and debate performances to Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (allegedy the best and brightest of that generation – yikes) and he comes across great. Talk abour shrill, and simplistic…
You need not fear legal action thought – at least not from me.
May 10th, 2012 | 9:01 pm
Pete, well, perhaps I went a bit too far, but I still think Rubio’s being vastly overrated these days by Republicans looking for an easy way out of Romney’s electoral difficulties. He needs quite a bit more cooking and seasoning before being seriously considered for a place on the national ticket.
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