even as Obama’s RCP average job approval rating gets up near 50%,
1. The economic fundamentals are still pretty bad. Median income is still down. The unemployment rate is both high and stagnant. This is the raw material for a campaign message. What Romney needs to get into his head is that the lousy economy is not a reason to vote for Romney. It is a reason to listen to Romney. If all people hear is “the economy is bad so vote for me”, then the median voter is likley to stick with the decent-seeming guy who isn’t doing a great job, over the smarmy rich guy who doesn’t respect you enough to give a coherent answer about why we should switch presidents.
2. Romney’s campaign is having a lousy week, but his campaign is better than it looks right now. The Romney campaign adjusts. He will probably have better weeks than this.
3. No matter who wins, we have to make the best of the moment (and every moment) and make the best choices from whatever unpleasant and shrinking choices we face.
September 20th, 2012 | 7:10 pm
yikes. those are the reasons for hope?
September 20th, 2012 | 7:40 pm
Well, I try to think of the National Review editorial from right after Martin Luther King was shot to get a sense of how much worse things had looked not too long ago.
September 20th, 2012 | 10:46 pm
If I may, I would like to suggest a fourth reason that should be kept in mind as we follow the various polls.
4. Most of these polls use turn out models based on the 2008 election which probably far too optimistic for Obama. Especially in light of other relevant factors:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/14/why_romney_will_win_115452.html
September 20th, 2012 | 11:09 pm
lol @ Pete. On the upside things are only really bad if you are expecting a job in the Romney administration… in which case maybe the “smarmy rich guy” agrees with Obama on the issue of not “building that”+”being an audacity of hope blank slate” In which case Romney is just sort of auditioning for backers who will advance a message. (one which he can plausibly deny as the mad rantings of a surrogate he has barely or never met). So just make stuff up about what Romney believes (because he potentially does) and if it is good enough to be sold to all the key groups as policy, Romney will scoop you up. (i.e. Paul Ryan went out and sold his vision first) and when enough folks believed it Romney bought him. Same stuff Romney did at Bain, entrepreneurs went out and created businesses, and once they had a good brand name, romney scooped them up for value. That is Romney doesn’t have to believe in anything directly, he just has to believe that other people believe in the product, much as there is no contradiction in Mayor Bloomberg and Warren Buffet both agreeing that Coca Cola is a overly sweet drink which causes obesity, but having major holdings, because the dividend and brand is good as gold. Romney is simply using his money to aquire the brand you create. All you had to do is solve all the political problems with workable/arguable policy, and some sort of voter base, commited to your brand and Romney will hire you.
September 21st, 2012 | 9:36 am
You might as well add that everyone should hope for things unseen.
September 21st, 2012 | 5:48 pm
Peter, Divine Providence? Okay. Salvation? Sure. Romney with principles? That might be too much. I kid (mostly.) I don’t doubt that Romney is for democracy, freedom of religion and such. Whether he has opinions on what divides the parties today? Things unseen.
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