Comments on: The Republican Nightmare Scenario

By: sds

sds — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 18:19:04 +0000

Keep your eyes on Rasmussen. Its the only poll that’s close to objective. Its tied. Agreed it shouldn’t be even that close given the president’s record. But that just shows you the degredation of the country.

By: MPB

MPB — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 15:23:34 +0000

I hate to add to this but we do know that this administration has been very tough on journalists for access to them- going so far as to require “quote approval” for all journalist who get access to the Executive Branch. So it is not hard to imagine pressure placed on pollsters or the media when using polls by politicians (which is not so unusual) in a similar way the administration tries to control the free speech of journalists who surround it. And it’s not hard to imagine that those journalists, already put upon, are told to use the polls in a certain way to make them look better.

After all, most people don’t bother looking into what polls actually say but what NBC, the NYT, CBS and Fox SAY those polls say. It is very easy to manipulate a poll of 500 possible voters into saying something big about, say, Ohio voters.

So I don’t think it’s that far out there to imagine some favorable nudging in the President’s direction.

By: Joseph Marshall

Joseph Marshall — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 03:19:21 +0000

A good deal of this foolishness about polls comes from not knowing which are really relevant. From about now on the key polls are in the states, not any of the national trackers. Moreover, a poll from Texas or New York is really not going to tell you that much. I wouldn’t presume to call an Obama victory in Texas, and I assume old Pseudoplotinus is unlikely to call a Romney victory in New York, no matter how skewed we think the polls may be. The difference is made not in these states, but the 5-6 states where the lead is between 1-5%. Anybody here look at them lately? If not, you have your nose pointing in the wrong direction.

Arguments of the form: Because the media is biased the polls must be biased, too, are simply silly. Without the facts of which polls where and by whom, as well as their sampling assumptions all criticisms of polls are just hot air–wish fulfillment and special pleading because you don’t like the flavor of the result.

Numbers are powerful things, even if we barely made it through doing sums. You may not win by betting Don’t Pass at the Craps table, splitting a pair of tens in Blackjack, or betting only after 3 consecutive wins by the Player in Mini-Baccarat, but you sure will lose a lot slower.

By: Sam Haysom

Sam Haysom — Wed, 26 Sep 2012 02:57:35 +0000

Honestly, at this point the people who don’t think the polls are rigged are the slow ones. Using 2008 turnout models for the 2010 mid-terms might have been acceptable, using at the largest mid-term defeat for the ruling party since the Great Depression is silly. None of the woe-is-me-cons ever address this. Probably, because working in the media it’s best to leave that stone unturned.

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Wed, 26 Sep 2012 00:00:55 +0000

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By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 21:49:15 +0000

I think its healthy to be skeptical about these things as well. But I would temper that skepticism with atleast two observations.

1. Clearly the mainstream media is off the rails in terms of its professional standards of objectivity. So if mainstream media is so skewed, why should we think the pollsters are any more insulated from the same biases?

2. Apparently it is common knowledge that the bulk of these polls are using 2008 turn-out models. Is there any objective argument one could make in favor of using 2008 as the basis of 2012?

I would not suggest a conspiracy is occurring, just epic group think among the professional media and its associated organizations. I don’t see a reason to think pollsters are somehow immune to the condition.

By: Peter Lawler

Peter Lawler — Tue, 25 Sep 2012 21:10:37 +0000

Pseudo, I kind of doubt that there’s a conspiracy here involving a lot of polls. Nonetheless, I hope you’re right. But the fact remains that the turnout depends on Romney reversing the negative momentum generated by his terrible campaign. My hope is still alive, and my criticism is tough love.