Very quickly: Three new polls on RCP. All say it’s a tie. The Gallup is most encouraging in showing a Romney trend.
Romney is also up to 235 on the no-ties electoral college board. He’s escaped from the McCain box and is on the march. But it’s clearer than ever he can’t win without Ohio and might lose anyway.
If the election were over today, the most astute bet would be Romney a narrow victor in the popular vote, but a clear–if narrow–loser in the electoral vote.
Early voting might now be good for Romney, of course.
All in all, we’re back where we started before the conventions, and the ground game–together with the remaining debates–are more important than they should be. Soon the president will know whether he was right not to dump Biden.
October 8th, 2012 | 10:54 am
In the interest of wacking the dead horse a few more times, Karl Rove has entered the list of pollster gate conspirators. Of course Pete “The Buzzkill” Spiliakos is certainly free to disregard him as a member the Dick Morris League of Political Opportunists.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443768804578034341205066014.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
But I’ll just reiterate my prediction: if Romney is behind on the RCP average/electoral college going into Nov 7, he will win, if he is ahead on the RCP it will be a Romney landslide. In the event either of these prove true, and they will, I just want to know who to send my shipping information for the free beer.
Remember, it’s Stella Artois.
October 8th, 2012 | 12:28 pm
If the election were today, everyone would be really confused and the turnout would be abysmal.
It seems clear to me that the primary season should be pushed back by about 6 months, and run June through August, when the conventions can take place. Other than media outlets who get tons of attack ad revenue, who benefits or wants the current ridiculous timeline?
October 8th, 2012 | 12:54 pm
Pseudoplotinus, I’d feel better if Rove hadn’t been trying to torture the numbers to give Republicans hope in 2008 (though he was careful to give himself lots of outs since he knew full well where things were going) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411909182439021.html
I wish I could believe that:
a. Polls that show a small Obama lead really show a small Romney lead.
b. Polls that show a tie really show a substantial Romney lead.
c. Polls that show a substantial Obama lead are lies/incompetent.
As a Romney voter, it would be nice. But it remains true that, since the general election match up was set, the polls have fluctuated between a modest Obama lead (3%-4%) or a tie. That Romney peaks at a tie is not encouraging. It isn’t doom either. If he is tied on election day, I’m willing to have strong hope for his chances.
1980 is just a bad analogy for this year. I can’t get a summary of all polls for the first half of October, but Reagan led most of the polls (about 3 to 1) from October 20 on. You also had an incumbent with a job approval rating about 8% lower than Obama’s so you had a lot more undecided voters who did not approve of the incumbent’s job performance. I suspect that Rove knows all of this which is why he didn’t mention all of those polls that show Reagan with a lead of anywhere from 5% to 6%.)
http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf
October 8th, 2012 | 5:54 pm
Pseudoplotinus, enjoy this – http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/08/pew-poll-romney-erases-eight-point-deficit-now-leads-by-four-among-likely-voters/
October 8th, 2012 | 6:15 pm
Hmmm. I’m thinking of a word.
It ends with: “-esque”
And begins with: “Reagan-”
October 8th, 2012 | 6:45 pm
Think again. Obama’s appoval rating is over 50% in both Gallup and Rasmussen.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
If Romney wins (I still would bet the other way if I had to – though I can hope as I would like at least a shot at another Alito-type Supreme Court Justice), his victory would look more Carteresque (as in 1976) than any of Reagan’s four general election wins. But I’ll take what I can get.
October 8th, 2012 | 6:47 pm
It’s not November 7th yet.
Just let me know on the 8th where to send my shipping information.
October 8th, 2012 | 6:49 pm
Who do you plan to send you anything? Even if I was a good sport (which I’m not – actually I am sorta), you’re still not getting anything from me but congratulations.
October 8th, 2012 | 7:24 pm
It’s a basic calculation on my part, whereby I plan to exploit the overwhelming euphoria that will come in the victory’s aftermath. Especially to the pomocon folks here who have worked so dilligently to lower their expectations.
As it happens it’s exactly when people are most vulnerable to getting hit up for beer.
It also works after major sporting events.
October 8th, 2012 | 7:36 pm
I like how you think and if you are right (heck, even if you are wrong) and you catch me at a bar in the aftermath of the election (though I can’t remember the last time I sat at a bar), I’ll buy you a beer. But it will be whatever brand of Mexican beer I’m drinking (I don’t always – almost never – drink beer, but when I do…)
October 9th, 2012 | 11:15 am
Dear Pseudo-, “beer”, really!
The mark of the hoi polloi, sir!
Two fingers of Maker’s Mark over ice will do for the rather obvious victory celebration. Though, while I’m rooting for Romney, who’s not a commie, I shall not cast my ballot for him!
October 9th, 2012 | 1:49 pm
Well played Mr. Cheeks.
You’ve situated yourself as one who can both condemn the present regime while reserving plausible deniability regarding the fate of its successor.
I’m thinking of a word.
It ends with: “-esque”
And begins with: “Krugman”
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