Comments on: It’s a Tie (Except Where It Counts)

By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 18:49:02 +0000

Well played Mr. Cheeks.

You’ve situated yourself as one who can both condemn the present regime while reserving plausible deniability regarding the fate of its successor.

I’m thinking of a word.

It ends with: “-esque”

And begins with: “Krugman”

By: Robert Cheeks

Robert Cheeks — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 16:15:21 +0000

Dear Pseudo-, “beer”, really!
The mark of the hoi polloi, sir!
Two fingers of Maker’s Mark over ice will do for the rather obvious victory celebration. Though, while I’m rooting for Romney, who’s not a commie, I shall not cast my ballot for him!

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 00:36:41 +0000

I like how you think and if you are right (heck, even if you are wrong) and you catch me at a bar in the aftermath of the election (though I can’t remember the last time I sat at a bar), I’ll buy you a beer. But it will be whatever brand of Mexican beer I’m drinking (I don’t always – almost never – drink beer, but when I do…)

By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Tue, 09 Oct 2012 00:24:41 +0000

It’s a basic calculation on my part, whereby I plan to exploit the overwhelming euphoria that will come in the victory’s aftermath. Especially to the pomocon folks here who have worked so dilligently to lower their expectations.

As it happens it’s exactly when people are most vulnerable to getting hit up for beer.

It also works after major sporting events.

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:49:54 +0000

Who do you plan to send you anything? Even if I was a good sport (which I’m not – actually I am sorta), you’re still not getting anything from me but congratulations.

By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:47:30 +0000

It’s not November 7th yet.

Just let me know on the 8th where to send my shipping information.

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:45:56 +0000

Think again. Obama’s appoval rating is over 50% in both Gallup and Rasmussen.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

If Romney wins (I still would bet the other way if I had to – though I can hope as I would like at least a shot at another Alito-type Supreme Court Justice), his victory would look more Carteresque (as in 1976) than any of Reagan’s four general election wins. But I’ll take what I can get.

By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 23:15:04 +0000

Hmmm. I’m thinking of a word.

It ends with: “-esque”

And begins with: “Reagan-”

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 22:54:51 +0000

Pseudoplotinus, enjoy this – http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/08/pew-poll-romney-erases-eight-point-deficit-now-leads-by-four-among-likely-voters/

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Mon, 08 Oct 2012 17:54:33 +0000

Pseudoplotinus, I’d feel better if Rove hadn’t been trying to torture the numbers to give Republicans hope in 2008 (though he was careful to give himself lots of outs since he knew full well where things were going) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411909182439021.html

I wish I could believe that:

a. Polls that show a small Obama lead really show a small Romney lead.

b. Polls that show a tie really show a substantial Romney lead.

c. Polls that show a substantial Obama lead are lies/incompetent.

As a Romney voter, it would be nice. But it remains true that, since the general election match up was set, the polls have fluctuated between a modest Obama lead (3%-4%) or a tie. That Romney peaks at a tie is not encouraging. It isn’t doom either. If he is tied on election day, I’m willing to have strong hope for his chances.

1980 is just a bad analogy for this year. I can’t get a summary of all polls for the first half of October, but Reagan led most of the polls (about 3 to 1) from October 20 on. You also had an incumbent with a job approval rating about 8% lower than Obama’s so you had a lot more undecided voters who did not approve of the incumbent’s job performance. I suspect that Rove knows all of this which is why he didn’t mention all of those polls that show Reagan with a lead of anywhere from 5% to 6%.)

http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/Proceedings/papers/1981_011.pdf