Fairly interpreted give Romney a very narrow but real lead. He also picked up Colorado on the no-tie chart. It goes without saying that I was mocking the dramatic Andrew S. below. The election is too close to call, and the Obama campaign remains the better campaign. But the big mo’ is with Mitt, and all you Republicans should get your friends to early-vote now.
Pennsylvania and Michigan are in play for real. PA is looking about the way it did in 2004, when Bush almost carried the Virtuous State.
October 9th, 2012 | 4:50 pm
It seems like nothing is what it seems anymore. Here is John Podhoretz’s contribution to Pollstergate. He adds a wrinkle to the problem with our state of polling this year which I am now beginning to believe may explain the data we’ve been seeing.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/the_day_polling_died_avC02WOQrbvvohrTLZwgAI
The problem may not be oversampling of democrats or republicans, but unrepresentative sampling in general. Turns out 9 out of 10 people who are now called by pollsters hang up on said pollster, which, as Iowahawk is quoted as saying in this article, suggests that:
“political poll results accurately reflect the opinions of the weirdo 9 percent who agree to participate in political polls.”
So my revised interpretation of our poll problem is that we aren’t measuring votes so much as partisan enthusiasm. The guy who is willing to answer the pollsters questions is probably the guy who is feeling pretty good about his candidates chances. So Obama’s lead jumped after the DNC, and now Romney is surging after the Debate.
So statistically speaking, we’re flying blind.
Pretty cool eh?