Today’s studies show that Romney ‘mo from the debate has come to an end. The result: Everything everywhere seems to be well within the margin of error, and the national polls really are all just one percent one way or the other. Romney arguably has a microscopic lead, but it didn’t grow (or shrink) today.
Pete said that when Romney is flourishing, the result is a tie. When he’s flailing, Obama is up four or five. Pete was right.
That doesn’t mean Romney can’t win. It does mean his margin for error–in every sense of error–is much, much more narrow.
On the accuracy of polls: Remember they were pretty accurate in 2008, and there’s no better science (in a way that can’t be explained that well scientifically) than taking an average of all the available polls–as does RCP.
On lying: Pete has convinced me that Romney believed what he said about his tax scheme, even as he convinced me that the scheme is not that serious a proposal. I’m happy to repeat that there’s no evidence that Mitt lies more than the president. And it’s not criticism, exactly, when I report that the president is somewhat better in putting forward deceptions we (not including Carl, of course) can believe in.
October 11th, 2012 | 2:10 pm
Or NOT.
“Final point: We absolutely, positively must remember polling in 2012 is politicized as never before, and it is incumbent upon the consumers of political polls not to accept the data naïvely, but to perform due diligence to see what goes into the product.”
-Jay Cost, Weekly Standard, in today’s article which you can find here:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-politics-and-gallup-poll_654143.html?page=2
Like I said before, we are flying blind. Pete should atleast list the assumptions underlying these poll treatments because they are becoming laughable.
October 11th, 2012 | 6:10 pm
Peter, thanks!
Pseudoplotinus, Rasmussen (presumably not a den of weenies who buckled to liberal pressure), shows Obama with a job approval rating of 51% and a lead of +1 on the head-to-head. As long as Obama’s job approval ratings hover at 50% it is going to be difficult to impossible for Romney to build a substantial and durable lead. He can win, but unless Obama’s job approval number comes down, there is little chance of a 1980-style break in the direction of the challenger.
October 11th, 2012 | 6:37 pm
Pete, a couple of thoughts:
1. Presumably Rasmussen is dealing with the same issue that is being noted across all polling which is that the success rate of poll participants answering pollster calls is now less than 10%, which I think pretty much undermines the claim that the sample represents the population of voters generally. But I do agree that Rasmussen is about as sober an institution as there is in polling, I just think, even if your methods are objective, that the noise in this data is overwhelming whatever signal there may be.
2. I think after Nov 7 we’re going to find that the election didn’t turn on the question of Obama’s likability, but whether Romney succcessfully gave independent voters a reason to think he provides a better alternative to the policies that, according to focus groups of independants that I have read about, are profoundly dissatisfied with Obama’s record the last four years despite finding him likable. My assertion is that Romney is successfully fulfilling that challenge. I think this election will prove unique in that it will be determined more by how compelling the policy claims of the candidates prove, rather than personality.
October 11th, 2012 | 6:42 pm
Pseudoplotinus, I’m not so worried about Obama’s likeability as his job approval rating. I just don’t see that many people who approve of his job as president voting for Romney. The two most similar elections (1976 and 2004) produced very close results and Obama is running about 1% behind Bush in 2004 in job approval (that is from memory, I’m too lazy to look it up.)
October 11th, 2012 | 7:30 pm
Ah, my mistake. You did site Job Approval.
I’ll just say I find the number implausible given recent events, including Benghazi, Slackergate (ie, the president who let his dog eat his debate homework) and the general ridicule his Big Bird Insurgency has received on both left and right. He’s looking more feeble now than he ever did and his approvals edge upward?
So I’ll go back to my first point in the previous post: 51% of the 9% who actually answer pollster phone calls now think the president is doing a good job. What that means in terms of the actual voters I would submit remains to be statistically justified.
October 11th, 2012 | 7:42 pm
Pseudoplotinus, the head-to-head numbers have moved but the job approval number has stayed almost unchanged since the second weekend of September. Maybe those answering all the polls are unrepresentative of, and more favorably disposed to Obama. It is possible. I think it is more likely that the President has just about half the country thinking he has done a decent (not the same as great) job under tough circumstances. My confidence in the polls isn’t absolute, but I haven’t seen anything to make me think that Rasmussen (and not just them) is farther from the truth about popular opinion than any alternative explantion of what folks think about the President’s job performance. Or rather, I think they are too close to the truth for my liking.
October 12th, 2012 | 8:39 am
I have to imagine that the “studies show…” line is a sign that this is at least somewhat of a parody…I mean, come on…
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