According to Real Clear Politics, the average of the presidential head-to-head is tied at about 47% each (it is Obama +.2% but close enough.) Obama’s job approval average is still between 49% and 50%. This time in 2004, George W. Bush had the exact same job approval average but was running almost three points ahead of John Kerry in the head-to-head. Bush ended up winning by 2.4%. Gerald Ford’s last two job approval ratings were 44% and 47%. He ended up getting 48% of the vote and losing by 2%.
So let’s make the unlikely assumption that nothing changes between now and election day. We have the candidates tied and 6%-7% of the likely voter pool that claims to be undecided. My gut tells me that the undecideds should break for Romney. On the other hand, just over 49% of the public think that Obama is doing a good job as President. How many of them are going to vote Romney? Or put it this way, which do you think would be a bigger group on election day, Obama approvers who vote for Romney or Obama non-approvers who stick with the President? I think both groups will be fairly small, but that the latter would be bigger than the former. The head-to-head points (slightly) to a Romney win. The job approval number points to an Obama win.