Comments on: Political Notes

By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 01:08:55 +0000

MPB, compared to his posts up until this last week, Pete’s comments above are practically giddy in their optimism for Romney. And I suppose it’s for good reason since credibility is important in his line of work. The rest of us can just come up with another lame pseudonym when our prognostications come up rediculously short.

I do agree, however, that conservatives do have a certain pessimistic mindset that perhaps makes them a little too ready to be dissapointed.

A good case in point is AEI’s (short for American Eor Institute) recent panel on the election this last week. Only Michael Barone offered the possibility of maybe Obama not winning. It’s worth watching if one has an hour of kitchen cleaning or jogging or something.

http://www.aei.org/events/2012/10/25/aei-election-watch-2012-session-6-down-to-the-wire/

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 00:03:38 +0000

“but the job approval ratings number is precisely the sort of stat that would be OVERRATED for Obama because people are uncomfortable saying something negative about America’s first black president.” I wouldn’t assume that. His approval rating had fallen as low as 44% a couple of years ago and he would be toast now if his approval rating was 44%. I don’t know why 4%-5% of the electorate would start lying within the last 24 months – especially to robopolls. If Obama’s “real” job approval rating was in the low to mid 40s and with Romney not being an obvious joke candidate, you would expect a 1980-style 40 state sweep by Romney. But instead, the Electoral College map looks a lot closer than that. In fact, it looks (in its closeness if not its geographical distribution) like the elections of 1976 and 2004 when you had an incumbent president of similarly marginal approval ratings.

By: MPB

MPB — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 22:53:49 +0000

The numbers are all over the map, pun intended and all…

I cannot fathom how one can augur anything at all the polls numbers the media, the campaigns, and the average person are throwing around.

Though I appreciate PoMoCon’s election year coverage on this issue- this obsession with the job approval rating is a strange fetish.

Maybe it is ugly and cynical to point out, but the job approval ratings number is precisely the sort of stat that would be OVERRATED for Obama because people are uncomfortable saying something negative about America’s first black president. It, along with personal likability polls, would be where there may be an overcompensation because of a discomfort over America’s racial problems.

If I were mistaken, wouldn’t we assume the polls should show a correlation with Democratic enthusiasm and likely voters which would mirror the job approval/likability ratings (especially this late in the game?) They simply don’t.

So even though I don’t believe Romney has this wrapped up at by any stretch; you fine PoMoCon gentlemen seem a bit reticent over the most imprecise and confounding stat being tossed our way; and it isn’t making much sense to me.

So when I hear a job approval of 49%; I, very arbitrarily and in the most unscientifically biased manner, would say the real number may be 5 to 6% lower than that. And a job approval rating in the low to mid forties (maybe even as low as the upper thirties) would not portend well for the President.

By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 22:18:15 +0000

Though the drop does correspond nicely with the Obama Campaign’s recent vulgarity offensive.

It would be ironic if it turns out that they succeed in bringing out the slacker college student vote only to alienate themselves from all the adults in the American Electorate who actually will be the ones who determine the next POTUS.

I do so love a good ironic ending.

By: Tim Van Milligan

Tim Van Milligan — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 21:52:32 +0000

I concur with you that the “Imagine America” video is aimed at the wrong crowd. It is aimed at the utopian socialists; and they should already be a lock for Obama. I’m not sure why someone would make this video, except they are trying to chastise Americans for voting Republican. I contend that the Democrat Party splits after the shellacking they are going to get on November 6.

By: Pete Spiliakos

Pete Spiliakos — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 15:14:37 +0000

Carl, part of my reticence to feel really, really good about Obama’s job approval decline is a sense that Gallup is skewing the average a little. I’d like to see if the Gallup number holds up and if more polls show job approval below 49%.

By: Carl Eric Scott

Carl Eric Scott — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 04:27:56 +0000

Pete, that RCP average is one I watch, too. Finally!

Job-approval-wise, Gallup now has Obama down to 46%. http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-obamas-job-approval-drops-7-points-3-days

By: Brian

Brian — Sun, 28 Oct 2012 03:55:47 +0000

Counting electoral votes is all that matters, but I maintain there’s just no way to lose the popular vote by 3-4 points, as seems entirely likely, and win. It’s just not going to happen.

By: Pseudoplotinus

Pseudoplotinus — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 23:42:13 +0000

Or, conversely, its the bahavior of a campaign that has convinced itself that it can do an end around conventional campaign math:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-in-ohio-magic-gone-the-president-grinds-it-out/article/2511690

Either way, it screams desperation.

By: Brian

Brian — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 23:30:02 +0000

This is not the behavior of a campaign that thinks it is either winning or even capable of winning. This is the behavior of a campaign trying to do nothing more than stir up its partisans, and that has completely given up on independents or undecideds. One shudders to think how nasty they’ll still get in the remaining ten days…