I am not presenting much new about the election and the political scientists here have far more information than I do, by profession. However, observing the political scene and responding to the recent posts here, I feel compelled to weigh in. I believe Romney is winning the election. I say that as if it were a continuing process because I live in a state with early voting and despite what polling and the Obama campaign says, pollsters only get to talk to people who will talk to them and get to choose who they poll. That always leaves me suspicious of the results. Is there polling outside of major metropolitan areas? If I believe preference polls, Romney is ahead in our state and that must have an effect on the early voting. In our little county, 150-200 people a day are voting early, according to folks at the BOE.
In addition, the composition of parties and those independents who “lean” one way or another has changed considerably from 2008. That is according to Pew Research, and that report was completed in August before the debates and the turns in the campaign that have been subsequent. The first debate had an enormous effect on public perceptions of Mitt Romney as far as I can tell. The way the Obama campaign has played the game since then has not been attractive; some kinds of aggression appear desperate in politics. Maybe I can dissect what I mean by that later.
Looking at that Pew data, I am impressed by how many people now identify themselves as independent voters. This has to be significant, doesn’t it? Perhaps it is a postmodern issue. Can we talk about it?