So Flagg Taylor of RICOCHET fame writes in response to my dissing of his very pro-Romney election prediction:
I love that I am now lumped in with Mr. Barone. The only way most of these state polls can be accurate is if the electorate looks like it did in 2008. I’m betting more like 2010. And Romney’s winning independents handily, and he’s close with women. Young people ain’t coming to the polls like they did in 08. And even if O’s margin with Blacks is the same, will they turn out in similar numbers as 08? Where are O’s margins in all of these state polls coming from?
It is possible that most polls are so wrong on their turnout models that Romney is being significantly lowballed. It’s also possible that we’re fooling ourselves if we believe that so many polls are so wrong. We’ll see. I’m hoping Flagg is right.
UPDATE: On the other hand, I go over to RICOCHET to get a heaping helping of their hope, beginning with the Paul Rahe landslide for Mitt hypothesis. Paul has a link in a thread that he says shows that Romney (according to Rasmussen) is up 5 in Michigan. Click on the link and the actual study shows Obama up 5. And I also learned that even Dick Morris is fearful that this last weekend might have been for Obama something like the last weekend in 1992 was for Clinton. So, to repeat, we really don’t know, and everyone drink some of whatever they’re drinking at RICOCHET and get out to vote.
November 5th, 2012 | 3:35 pm
GO vote Romney get a clue Obamacare will force companies to layoff. Don’t buy Obamas non existent budget and four year failures he’s still blaming Bush if you elect him more job loss, weaker defense and higher deficit. if you are in the middle class you will feel it. Wake up America Romney is not George Bush
November 5th, 2012 | 5:34 pm
While I don’t think we can expect the same kind of pro-Democratic wave that we had in 2008, I also wouldn’t expect the electorate to look like it did in 2010, either.
First, when the electorate gives power to one party they expect things to get better. If they do get better, they reward that party. If they don’t get better, they tend to punish them by putting more of the other guys into office. That’s what we saw in 2008, when Obama was elected and a large number of Democrats were elected to Congress (the apogee of Democratic enthusiasm). When things didn’t get better- and in fact, when they got worse- a large number of Republicans were elected to the House in 2010.
In 2012, I think the public still views Obama’s first term as a qualified failure, but the question is whether the wave that gave Republicans a majority in the House was also an apogee. Will voters look at the last two years and be satisfied with Republican opposition to Obama, or will they partially blame them for the stagnant economy and the lack of action on the debt? There may be more enthusiasm on the Republican side because the incumbent is a Democrat, but there certainly isn’t the same kind of enthusiasm as there was in 2010.
Second, 2010 was a midterm election, and turnout is lower in midterm elections than it is in presidential elections. That favors Democrats largely because, at least historically, lower income people and minorities tend to be less politically engaged, and therefore are less likely to vote in midterm elections that get comparatively less cultural and media play.
So while I think it makes sense to expect far less enthusiasm for Obama than we saw in 2008, we also can’t expect the same kind of enthusiasm we saw among Republicans in 2010. If the feeling of the electorate is still that we need new leadership to fix some of our problems, then there ought to be enough enthusiasm to elect Romney. If the feeling is that Republicans didn’t do enough with their House majority, or if the electorate is beginning to feel like nobody could’ve fixed our problems in the last four years, then Obama will win.
November 5th, 2012 | 7:32 pm
Here’s a prediction from a guy whom I really respect on this type of issue, Jack Pitney: http://www.bessettepitney.net/2012/11/prediction-of-presidential-election.html
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