That Henry Olsen article linked by Pete is the most penetrating account of the election’s likely outcome I’ve seen. Olsen ends up agreeing with the RCP no-tie number (and more or less Nate Silver’s number) for Obama–303 electoral votes. He also explains what we already knew: Romney has to win the popular vote by probably 2% to win the electoral vote. Olsen’s article is one of several from leading conservatives yesterday analyzing Romney’s defeat before it actually happens. They could be wrong, and you wouldn’t have to tweak Olsen’s numbers all that much to give Romney a win. We’ll talk about the alleged twilight of the Reagan coalition and all that later. My less-than-pessimistic thought is that there’s nothing wrong with the Republicans that couldn’t be fixed if they just listened to PETE. For example, if Romney loses OH, it’s because he came off as needlessly anti-UNION. If he loses CO and NV, and conceivably PA and VA, it’s because he came off as needlessly anti-immigrant (and so anti-Latino etc.). If Obama wins, he can thank blue-collar, non-evangelical white guys in the MIDWEST and Hispanics voting (not without reason, of course) identity politics.
UNFILTERED NOT-BAD NEWS: The three polls out this morning show a PERFECT TIE.