That Henry Olsen article linked by Pete is the most penetrating account of the election’s likely outcome I’ve seen. Olsen ends up agreeing with the RCP no-tie number (and more or less Nate Silver’s number) for Obama–303 electoral votes. He also explains what we already knew: Romney has to win the popular vote by probably 2% to win the electoral vote. Olsen’s article is one of several from leading conservatives yesterday analyzing Romney’s defeat before it actually happens. They could be wrong, and you wouldn’t have to tweak Olsen’s numbers all that much to give Romney a win. We’ll talk about the alleged twilight of the Reagan coalition and all that later. My less-than-pessimistic thought is that there’s nothing wrong with the Republicans that couldn’t be fixed if they just listened to PETE. For example, if Romney loses OH, it’s because he came off as needlessly anti-UNION. If he loses CO and NV, and conceivably PA and VA, it’s because he came off as needlessly anti-immigrant (and so anti-Latino etc.). If Obama wins, he can thank blue-collar, non-evangelical white guys in the MIDWEST and Hispanics voting (not without reason, of course) identity politics.
UNFILTERED NOT-BAD NEWS: The three polls out this morning show a PERFECT TIE.
November 6th, 2012 | 8:11 am
Very heavy voting in Wayne Twnshp, Columbiana County, Ohio this morning at 7:30. There where ten people at the polls to vote, and that’s a whole bunch. There were no SEIU union thugs near the polling house!
November 6th, 2012 | 8:57 am
To beat the same old horse that conservatives have been pounding on for months, if the internals on those “tied” polls from this morning are correct, Mitt wins comfortably.
Meh. We’ll know fairly early tonight either way.
November 6th, 2012 | 9:22 am
Brian, I hope you are right. Bob, I’m sure you could have handled those union thugs if they had shown up.
November 6th, 2012 | 10:07 am
Whatever your opinion of the SEIU, I’ve worked the polls in Ohio, and it is illegal to campaign within those tiny American flags so many yards away from the door, even to the mild degree of wearing a campaign button.
So if you see anyone doing it, go tell the poll workers. They will call the police, if necessary. And if you see anyone intimidating voters call the following number:
(202) 514-1888
It’s the number for the FBI. Because voter intimidation is a federal crime.
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