1. Pete was right again. Henry Olsen nailed it: Non-evangelical white blue collar voters in the MIDWEST and Latino voters were the difference. And those two groups are a big reason why the electorate identified as more Democratic than Republicans thought. The polls in general, as I thought, nailed it.
2. But remember it’s a very close election–Romney will probably lose FL and CO. Maybe VA. The result will likely be a very decisive electoral college victory for Obama. But change less than 250,000 votes and he loses.
3. OH was closer than I thought it would be.
4. It looks like Obama’s popular vote victory will be narrow–maybe very narrow.
5. Clearly Romney was wrong to try to sit on his lead. But he did well to get himself into the lead for a while. Obama did even better to get his guys out where he needed them.
6. Obama was lucky with Sandy and his mini-popularity surge. If you want to, you can focus on THAT as the difference, and the exit polls seem to back you up.
7. Overall: The 50/50 result or very near I was predicting all along.