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Wednesday, May 8, 2013, 7:22 PM

I’ve never been able to get worked up about the Benghazi attack. I always thought that the refusal to order a prompt rescue mission was judgment call. The story cooked up that the attack was a response to a video was also pretty obviously a lie and a political attempt to prevent the story being about the administration’s failure to prevent the killing of the US ambassador by an Al-Qaeda affiliate on September 11.  After all, the administration could hardly be faulted for not anticipating the response to a YouTube video. Lots of YouTube videos out there.

The testimony and emails revealed at the hearings today make it clear that the State Department had information that the Benghazi consulate attack was not a “demonstration” long before ambassador Susan Rice went on television to pretend that the administration believed the Benghazi attack caused by a video mocking the Prophet Muhammad.

So I made it a point to watch all three major network evening news broadcasts. All three covered the story. They all had fair pieces on the question of whether a rescue mission should have been attempted. They all played down the aspects of the story dealing with the administration’s fake Benghazi talking points.

What struck me was that all three newscasts led with the story of the horrible Cleveland kidnapping case. I can understand why they did so. Benghazi is a complicated story about a far way place. The pro-sensationalism incentives of modern network news are such that the mainstream media will have a strong bias in favor of intensely covering (and even hyping) a story about a house of horrors in which spectacular and disgusting crimes were committed for years and years right under the noses of authorities. Which certainly explains their coverage of the Gosnell murder trial.

The mainstream media have a boundless appetite for covering “local crime” stories.  Sometimes.


Monday, May 6, 2013, 8:15 PM

Yuval Levin has some eminently sensible suggestions for how to improve the Gang Of Eight’s immigration bill. Levin’s suggestions include mandating the near-term adoption of E-Verify for all employees, eliminating the guest worker program and shifting future immigration toward high-skill immigrants for the sake of current low-wage American residents (to include many such residents who would be getting amnesty.)  That is an immigration program that I can enthusiastically get behind.

Levin frames his proposals as a suggestion for fixing the Gang of Six Deal. William Kristol wonders if it is at all likely that the current Congress would adopt Yuval Levin-style immigration reform. I doubt it. The Senate bill is basically amnesty, plus some gestures toward border enforcement that are and insult to the intelligence, plus increased legal low-skill/low-wage immigration, plus internal enforcement that will at best be delayed and most likely be abandoned altogether when the heat is off. The complex of interest groups and politicians who produced the Gang of Eight deal got what they wanted. They don’t want Yuval Levin-style immigration reform. John McCain doesn’t want it. Charles Schumer doesn’t want it. Barack Obama doesn’t want it. The left-wing activist groups don’t want it. The Chamber of Commerce doesn’t want it. I suspect that most of the above would prefer to stick with the status quo and hope to win immigration reform on their terms later on than support Yuval Levin-style reform now. Sufficient public pressure could push some elected officials to supporting better immigration reform, but public opinion would have to strongly favor better reform and probably make itself felt in elections.

Opponents of the Gang of Eight deal are drawing from deep wells of public opposition to increased low-skill immigration and amnesty that is not combined with effective enforcement. The problem is that the opposition to the Gang of Eight deal often just sound too negative. They often sound like Mitt Romney opposing amnesty until some indefinite time when the border is secure and that illegal immigrants will self-deport. This strategy is self-defeating in the end. It means that the best that opponents of the Gang of Eight deal can hope for is the maintenance of the broken status quo. It means that Chuck Schumer and his allies only have to win once while the best their opponents can hope for it to not lose even more than they already are.

A better option would be to contrast the Gang of Eight-style immigration reform with Yuval Levin’s far superior immigration proposals. I think it is very likely that Levin’s proposals would have substantial public appeal. Levin’s set of policies could form the basis for a humane, pro-growth, pro-working-class immigration reform program. They key is to create the political incentives for Republican office holders and candidates who want to position themselves as conservatives to adopt Yuval Levin-style immigration reform. It means establishing Yuval Levin-style immigration reform as the authentic and realistic alternative to the Gang of Eight deal. One thing e could do is hope that some brave politician or politicians would adopt Levin-style immigration reform and assemble a coalition around it. That would be great, but it would be more likely that politicians would adopt this agenda if there was already a movement in favor of such a set of policies.

My tentative suggestion is to start a petition (along with major newspaper ads) with as many conservative journalists, activists and office holders as can be found who favor Yuval Levin-style immigration reform. If we can shift opinions among conservative activists, then it becomes more likely that even the John McCains of the Republican party will go along and we might even get enough support from Democrats from competitive constituencies to actually pass a good immigration reform bill. Such a path would be slower than I would like, but it seems like the best option we have given the current balance of political forces.


Sunday, May 5, 2013, 8:06 PM

Ross Douthat is on a roll lately. He points out that the recent Oregon study indicates that expanding health care coverage isn’t the most cost effective way to improve the well being of the poor and lower middle-class. I would agree, but I would put the emphasis in different places, not because Douthat is wrong, but because Republican politicians might hear him wrongly.

The Oregon study’s finding that expanding Medicaid had a statistically insignificant impact on the health of beneficiaries could be used by many Republican politicians as an excuse to ignore health care policy beyond making some gestures in the direction of repealing Obamacare. That would be a mistake because the Oregon study indicates that policies developed by conservative wonks might be the way to go, and that adopting those policies could expand the appeal of the Republicans.

The Oregon study found that expanded health insurance coverage was good for several things. It protected beneficiaries from financial shocks from catastrophic health costs and it increased their peace of mind. All of this is to say that health insurance is more valuable as insurance than as health. It is nice to see that the political culture is catching up with David Goldhill. That doesn’t mean that health insurance is not important to families and that it is not an important political issue. If you were to somehow abolish the health insurance of most middle-class American families, the response of those families would probably be a slow and quiet panic even if the health of the families stayed the same month in and month out. Republicans are only injuring themselves if they seem indifferent to public’s desire to have coverage or to people’s frustration with premium increases that eat into their disposable income.

What Republicans can do is use the findings of the Oregon study and the work of conservative wonks to address people’s health care and earnings concerns. Republicans could take on the Obamacare model of comprehensive health care prepayment as eating into people’s wages and imposing unnecessary burdens on taxpayers. Republicans could argue for moving health care financing to a model of catastrophic health insurance coverage, plus coverage for routine preventive care, plus health savings accounts to pay for non-catastrophic health care costs. James Capretta has been working on this. Republicans would be able to plausibly argue that their plans would maintain the health care security of middle-class families while reducing health care premiums and expand health insurance coverage for low-earners at lower cost to taxpayers than Obamacare. Republicans can be the party of health care security and more take home pay and lower spending. C’mon people. You can do this.


Friday, May 3, 2013, 3:49 PM

Here is Megan McArdle on the new Oregon Medicaid study. One implication is that a comprehensive prepayment model of health insurance might not be the most cost effective way to get people health care services. There is no statistically significant evidence that Medicaid improved the health outcomes for those enrolled, but it did increase their financial security and it does seem to have decreased incidence of depression. Avik Roy suggest you can get the same outcome for a lot less money by the government converting Medicaid into a two-part concierge medicine/catastrophic care plan.

My totally non-expert read is that we should try to shift Medicaid (and health insurance generally) in the direction of Health Savings Accounts (maybe with vouchers for preventive care) and catastrophic health insurance. Ross Douthat rightly complained on twitter that the Oregon study showed that the Republicans are wasting an opportunity on health care and that while there are conservative alternatives to Obamacare, there are no Republican alternatives.

That is fair enough, but I would point out that at least one Republican implemented programs that included HSAs and catastrophic coverage for both those with employer-provided and Medicaid-provided health care. That guy was Mitch Daniels.  C’mon Republicans. You can do this. Just take a break from trying to pass guest worker programs and middle-class tax increases. There might be some votes in good policy.


Thursday, May 2, 2013, 4:18 AM

Republicans can and should be both.  If Republicans choose to be the party of high-earner self-interest, Democrats will end up making policy in the long-term.


Wednesday, May 1, 2013, 6:44 PM

Over at Legal Insurrection, William A Jacobson writes about the costs of low information voters who get their information primarily through liberal-leaning (or sometimes straight partisan liberal) news outlets. I think the problem is less that they are low information than that many voters are no information when it comes to a sympathetic presentation of conservative ideas. The media (often of the entertainment or infotainment variety) that many people consume will just never run these kinds of stories or have those kinds of conversations. That might be the single biggest structural weakness in how political conservatism gets out to the public.

Yesterday, in the course of an unpleasant day, I involuntarily watched some of an afternoon talk program. It is the kind that comes on after the noon local news and seems to be displacing soap operas. The theme of the show seemed to involve banter among a team of hosts who would then teach the viewer how to cook various dishes. The hosts opened the show talking about the NBA player who had declared that he was gay.

I don’t imagine that the audience for these types of programs tune in for any political content, but people are shaped by what they watch. I was watching the program and it struck me that this was exactly the time, both of the day and of the election cycle, to run a one minute or ninety second ad about late-term abortion or family-friendly tax reform. My sense is that when it comes to changing people’s minds, such ads now would be worth dozens of generic “vote for the Republican” thirty second ads the week before the election when viewers are beaten numb from back-to-back-to-back political commercials.

 


Saturday, April 27, 2013, 8:57 AM

Over on twitter, Reihan Salam and Patrick Brennan were discussing a Matthew Yglesias post on the Koch brothers’ attempt to buy the Tribune line of newspapers. Yglesias is for it since he thinks that the Koch brothers buying the Tribune papers and turning them into conservative news outlets focused on reporting would be good for the media environment.  Yglesias writes some things I agree with and some things I disagree with. He writes:

After all, the big problem with right-leaning media in America isn’t that it doesn’t exist. It’s that it’s terrible. There is a large audience out there that’s so frustrated with the vile MSM that it’s happy to lap up cheaply produced content from Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, and you can make lots of money serving that kind of thing up. By contrast, to build a great media company that’s top-to-bottom staffed with conservatives is going to be very expensive.

I want to push back on this a little. Fox News is very good – at being Fox News. As Reihan Salam said on twitter, Special Report with Bret Baier and Fox News Sunday are outstanding politics-focused news shows. Hannity and O’Reilly are very good at being what they are. They aren’t just cheap and the only game in town. They provide entertainment and reinforcement for that minority among conservatives who want to feel good about their political commitments in that moment when those shows are on.

Salam pointed out that the left-of-center audience has more options, and that is true, but number of options is not the problem in itself. We would be only slightly better off (and maybe not better off at all) if there were three more cable news channels that had Sean Hannity imitators in the same time slot. What we are missing is (as Yglesias indicated) a right-leaning news outlet whose most prominent programs are based around reporting rather than commentary and narrative reinforcement.

Patrick Brennan wrote that he didn’t think there was a large audience out there clamoring for that kind of conservative news outlet. I think he (and not Yglesias) is right about that, but the problem is one of perspective. There is a very limited audience for a smarter Fox News. There might be a large (and cross-ideological) audience for an excellent mainstream news outlet with a center-right-leaning newsroom and editorial staff.

A cable outlet that tried to market itself as a smarter or more serious version of Fox News would be dooming itself at the outset. They would be insulting the existing Fox News audience and those conservatives who don’t watch Fox News but also can’t stand a self-congratulatory narrative from the same mainstream media that downplayed the Gosnell murders. Liberals don’t want anything that sounds like Fox News. The apolitical fraction of the public would find a “smarter” Fox News branding incomprehensible. It is a lose-lose-lose proposition.

A more useful conservative news outlet would not be a smarter version of Fox News. It would be a conservative version of the major network news divisions. The intended audience wouldn’t be conservatives as such. It would be people who wanted the best reporting about counter-terrorism efforts in Indonesia, the depletion of social capital in rural America, the rise of evangelical Christianity among American Latinos, and a hundred other things.

It wouldn’t be news for conservatives. It would be news for everyone by a newsroom that recognizes the Gosnell trial as more obviously a huge national story than Martha Burke’s protest at Augusta National. The audience for such a product would tend to skew conservative. No matter how well they guard against bias, such an outlet’s tone and story selection would alienate some liberals. But there are a lot of people (including some liberals) who do not have a strong partisan identity and do not come to the news hoping for affirmation of their choices to join Team Red or Team Blue.  A better conservative outlet would have to avoid the temptation to consciously pitch their stories to conservatives as doing so would undermine their product. It would need to be a product that contained can’t-miss, can’t-get-anywhere-else information for everyone.

The conservative media ecosystem is incomplete. The liberal media ecosystem has liberal-produced news for a general audience (ABC, NBC, CBS) and an alternative (MSNBC) for liberals who want their news to make them feel good about choosing Team Blue. Fox News plays both of these roles and the second one more prominently than the first.

We don’t need another conservative alternative to the mainstream media. We need a conservative version of the mainstream media. Patrick Brennan is right that there is no great clamor for such a thing. My sense is that this is a case in which supply could create its own demand. – and the demand would not come not so much from current Fox News viewers, but from across the right, center, and apolitical segments of the population that do not watch much Fox News.

The problem, as Yglesias points out, is that such an outlet would require enormous expense, the reporting would be very difficult to get right, and financial viability would be far from guaranteed.  I think it would be worth it to give Mollie Z. Hemingway a prominent television platform to report stories. But then again, it isn’t my money.


Thursday, April 25, 2013, 7:40 PM

Isaac Chotiner explains that the expressed desire/hope/prediction of many liberals that the Boston bombers turn out to be white non-Muslims was based on a “reasoned reactions to a society that is still full of racism and bigotry” and that “in times of national emergency or stress, double standards—one form of that dreaded disease called political correctness—serve very useful purposes.” He writes that if the bomber had turned out to be white, then the bombing would have been treated as an isolated incident and that if the bombers were “militia-men type extremists”, then you wouldn’t have seen racial profiling and such. It is almost convincing but…

Did you notice that when liberals were talking about white terrorists, they didn’t mean just any old white terrorists?  Liberals were predicting (hoping for) “militia-men” who were “on the right” and inspired by Tax Day.  Whites, like most large groups of people, are a varied bunch. So are white terrorists. Most of the Occupy movement-inspired bombing conspirators in Cleveland were white. Kathy Boudin, Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn were all white.  Somehow I don’t think that Isaac Chotiner’s liberal friends were hoping that the Boston bombers were deranged fans of the Occupy movement.

If liberals really were hoping that the Boston bombing would be a one-off, then they, in all their deep commitment to tolerance, would have hoped that the bombers were left-wing extremists. Remember how, after the Gabby Gifford’s shooting, we were all told by the president to tone down our rhetoric and how a New York Times entertainer suggested that Sarah Palin had contributed to the climate that led to the shooting?  The guy who shot Giffords was just a loon whose obsessions had nothing to do with partisan politics, but that did not stop liberals in the media from suggesting that the shooter was tied to the Tea Party. That was a collective smear against millions of innocent people, but these things happen.  Now do you remember the lunatic who tried to shoot up the Family Research Council? He actually was inspired by a liberal group’s description of the Family Research Council as a “hate group.”  That wasn’t such a big deal was it? Just an isolated event. The guy only represented himself. No reason to curtail robust public debate. Certainly it wasn’t a moment for liberals to rethink the virulence of their rhetoric.

So if liberals really hope that the next terrorist event will be treated as an isolated incident, they should, in the immediate aftermath, say something like “We really hope these are left-wing terrorists who were inspired by the ability of the Weather Underground bombers to leverage their terrorist activities into employment in academia.” Because liberal journalists, activists, politicians and entertainers are saying they believe and “hope” that that it is a right-wing terrorist, aren’t hoping that the terrorism will just be treated as an isolated event. They are hoping it is a chance to smear their peaceful and democratic political opponents. They should be despised first for their approach to democratic debate, and second for their hypocrisy.


Wednesday, April 24, 2013, 7:02 PM

Don’t believe Peter Lawler’s self-deprecation.  He actually has way more twitter followers than I do.  As well he should.  I seem to have lost the ability to write at less than essay(ish) length.  But even if I can’t add much to twitter, I can still enjoy those who are good at the medium.


Tuesday, April 23, 2013, 7:34 PM

Ramesh Ponnuru has a great article in opposition to a guest worker program.  We should welcome new immigrants as prospective citizens.  If you look at that article alongside Ponnuru’s articles on taxes and the Republican party’s agenda problem, you can see the outline of a patriotic, populist, limited government politics as opposed to the myopic high-earner interest group politics that seems to have captured the imagination of too many Republican leaders.

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