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Thursday, March 28, 2013, 3:31 PM

Yesterday, I read Juan Williams in the WSJ, Race and the Gun Debate.   Williams is looking at where the gun problem is in the United States.  He notes, “Gun-related violence and murders are concentrated among blacks and Latinos in big cities. Murders with guns are the No. 1 cause of death for African-American men between the ages of 15 and 34.”

There are probably as many or more guns per capita or even per household where I live in not-quite-suburban Ohio than in the city neighborhoods where, “In 2009, for example, the Centers for Disease Control reported that 54% of all murders committed, overwhelmingly with guns, are murders of black people.”  I find discomfort in looking at race like this.  There are black people where I live, though most of the black families who have lived here for generations are so integrated and intermarried in the white community, only the callow think of them in terms of race.  Those who move out here are something else and can bring city problems with them.  This is a very white area and the incident of gun violence of last year put the whole community in shock.  Therefore, people here rarely talk about banning guns as anything society needs to think or worry about.

Williams’ assertions are supported by “Gun Deaths Shaped by Race in America” in the Washington Post last week.  That defines gun violence by the statistics that show that blacks are shot by others and whites shoot themselves.  That piece seems to play with the data and implies a virtual holocaust of white suicide; the author is obviously pro-gun control.  However, I link to it because the first visual makes Juan William’s point so dramatically.

Mid-essay, Williams shifts focus to the real problem of black America, which is out-of-wedlock births.

Almost 50 years ago, when the 1964 Civil Rights Act was passed, the national out-of-wedlock birthrate was 7%. Today it is over 40%. According to the CDC, the out-of-wedlock birthrate for white children was just 2% in the 1960s. Today it is 30%. Among black children, the out-of-wedlock birthrate has skyrocketed from 20% in the 1960s to a heartbreaking 72% today. The Hispanic out-of-wedlock rate, which has been measured for a much shorter period, was below 40% in 1990 and stands at more than 50% as of the 2010 census.

Williams thinks that for white America, the gun debate is about what he dismissively calls abstractions.  He wants gun control, but not because he is unaware that guns are merely a symptom of the real problems of black America.   He seems to suggest the president knows this, too.  Guns are a symptom of what is wrong, not really the problem. Maybe as with a cold virus, people figure the illness will be gone if the symptoms are lessened. It’s really like taking analgesics for cancer. The proposed solution amounts to wishful thinking, that making guns illegal will remove them from the neighborhoods that are so sorely troubled.

The root problem is familial; it is a problem of males without fathers.  That problem manifests itself in the concomitant problem of out-of-wedlock pregnancy among women.  That was what Daniel Moynihan saw when the problem was far smaller.  In his book, Coming Apart,  Charles Murray says those problems are growing among whites, but that it is strictly a class problem. Recall, Murray doesn’t touch race in that book.  Juan Williams doesn’t go into it, but I’ll bet for blacks this is a problem of class, as well.  If minorities are less likely to be middle class and less likely to live in peaceable neighborhoods, their family structure, or lack of it, is the problem and it is a compounding problem.  It has an effect on many aspects of national life, including the problem of government spending.  Do you suppose it has anything to do with problems like this?

In a sense, the defense of marriage should be inarguable based on the statistics about family structure and the poverty rate.  That marriage, that intact families, can be a matter of life or death also seems evident.  What we can do to change, to improve that problem, I am still open to suggestions.


Friday, March 22, 2013, 12:50 PM

This is just my two cents on the pop culture scene. I am guilty of not watching television and being routinely clueless about the pop culture scene. Here, I lurk in wonder at who the hell has time to watch TV programs regularly.  What I will do is catch up with some show friends rave about.   That happens if I have a bad case of the flu or during housecleaning bouts when my hands are busy but my eyes and mind are mostly free.  Then I’ll get a whole series on DVD from the local library and watch right through, or all too often stop watching and wonder what on earth my friends saw in that program.

Today, here, there and all over the Internet, I see that The History Channel series, “The Bible” has somewhere between 10-13 million viewers per installment.  I also see theological arguments over the content, but if the Church at large were not so arguing, we would have to assume it was dead and the good news for modern Christianity is that, apparently, interest in the Bible is not dead.

2013.3.22-Ratings-Whale

 

 

 


Thursday, March 21, 2013, 10:09 PM

Andrew Ferguson informs and amuses at The Weekly Standard about that other orthodoxy in, “The Heretic: Who is Thomas Nagel and why are so many of his fellow academics condemning him?”

It is longish, but I liked it and for possibly unnatural reasons, thought some of you might like it, too. I think it is good, but have no scientific or material reason for thinking it is. I promise that statement will make sense if you read the whole thing.

Here is a piece I like:

Applied beyond its own usefulness as a scientific methodology, materialism is, as Nagel suggests, self-evidently absurd. Mind and Cosmos can be read as an extended paraphrase of Orwell’s famous insult: “One has to belong to the intelligentsia to believe things like that: no ordinary man could be such a fool.” Materialism can only be taken seriously as a philosophy through a heroic feat of cognitive dissonance; pretending, in our abstract, intellectual life, that values like truth and goodness have no objective content even as, in our private life, we try to learn what’s really true and behave in a way we know to be good. Nagel has sealed his ostracism from the intelligentsia by idly speculating why his fellow intellectuals would undertake such a feat.

‘The priority given to evolutionary naturalism in the face of its implausible conclusions,’ he writes, ‘is due, I think, to the secular consensus that this is the only form of external understanding of ourselves that provides an alternative to theism.’”

If the whole landscape of the human mind is really inexplicable by science, that puts certain scientists in a terrible bind. Some deny the mind has such scope, but must have to deny themselves, their own minds and complex thoughts, in order to do so. Now they are absolute atheists. Then there are those who say, “Not God, please, anything but God.”

The positive mission Nagel undertakes in Mind and Cosmos is to outline, cautiously, a possible Third Way between theism and materialism, given that the first is unacceptable—emotionally, if not intellectually—and the second is untenable. Perhaps matter itself has a bias toward producing conscious creatures. Nature in that case would be “teleological”—not random, not fully subject to chance, but tending toward a particular end. Our mental life would be accounted for—phew!—without reference to God.

Hat tip to one of my heroes, Joseph Knippenberg.


Sunday, March 17, 2013, 10:06 AM

American liberals need conservatives to be racist as justification for resisting change to the status quo of our government in terms of social programs and “entitlement” spending. Does it follow that conservatives must be racist? Funny, I don’t feel racist. What brings this up? At National Review Ramesh Ponnuru and Jonah Goldberg take apart the Sam Tanenhaus piece in The New Republic that is titled “Original Sin: Why the GOP Is and Will Continue to Be the Party of White People.”

Their chosen quote, and I hope you can read it with as much incredulous merriment as I did, “When the intellectual authors of the modern right created its doctrines in the 1950s, they drew on nineteenth-century political thought, borrowing explicitly from the great apologists for slavery, above all, the intellectually fierce South Carolinian John C. Calhoun.”

I read the authors of the modern right back in the day and I say, “What? What? What?”

Ponnuru and Goldberg express similar indignation:

Tanenhaus’s claim that National Review was baptized into the cult of Calhoun rests largely on a handful of quotes from Russell Kirk and James J. Kilpatrick. What results is a distorted picture of Kirk, but a nearly unrecognizable one of NR and conservatism. Neither Kirk nor Kilpatrick had the influence on NR that Burnham, Meyer, Chambers, Willi Schlamm, or Willmoore Kendall did. None of these founding editors of National Review is even mentioned in Tanenhaus’s indictment.

Nor is Harry Jaffa mentioned; Tanenhaus writes with blinders on, unaware of so much of thought on the right that he assumes there must not have been much thought. Just read the whole thing.

I suppose the left needs the right to be attached to Democratic antecedents like Calhoun so they can disallow them, despite an ideology and choice of policies that keep the descendents of American slaves in “safe” Congressional districts in the inner cities, dependent on government whenever possible, and securely in the Democratic voting bloc. Heck, I know I simplify grossly with that assertion, but for all the left has done for blacks since FDR and Johnson, what has changed so much for the better for our black population? With friends like the Democrats, who needs enemies? To slap the “racist” label on anyone who does not agree with the left denies any right to independent thought and to political opposition. That’s the real point, according to Ponnuru and Goldberg.

Perhaps the problem is in the word, conservative. It means someone who wants to conserve, of course, but we all choose the right to conserve what we believe is and was the best of civilization, based on judgement and discrimination. For example, I don’t know any conservative who longs for the good old days of chattel slavery. That “Progress” is inexorable in the left’s direction, which seems to be all about certain types of control and not others, is something any conservative feels free to argue. Tanenhaus seems to think we have no right to make the argument; that such arguments are sin. This is liberality these days. Where do conservatives get off looking at what modern liberalism has done for blacks in America and saying, “There must be a different, better, way to handle this. We have a mess here and it is a mess we cannot afford.”? Who has a vested interest in the racial divide of modern politics? It is not the GOP.

Coda: Apparently, Tanenhaus is working on a biography of William F. Buckley and given what he writes about him in “Original Sin”, God help Buckley’s memory.


Friday, March 15, 2013, 10:10 AM

Ohio Senator Portman, a supporter of DOMA, has come out in favor of gay marriage. This reversal of principle about marriage is apparently rooted in the relative in that his change of mind comes about because of a relative: his son. He also suggests that Republicans cannot hope to attract the votes of the young unless they cave on principle in this matter. He offers this salve to conservative conscience:

We conservatives believe in personal liberty and minimal government interference in people’s lives. We also consider the family unit to be the fundamental building block of society. We should encourage people to make long-term commitments to each other and build families, so as to foster strong, stable communities and promote personal responsibility.

That begs the question that homosexual unions are family-building entities. Do we have to accept the premise because it is popular? The young have experienced considerable propaganda about the goodness of homosexuality; the entertainment industry made it a verity that there was great wisdom in same-sex unions, despite sociological and medical evidence to the contrary. Portman offers this,

It is understandable to feel cautious about making a major change to such an important social institution, but the experience of the past decade shows us that marriage for same-sex couples has not undercut traditional marriage. In fact, over the past 10 years, the national divorce rate has declined.

Hooray for a declining divorce rate, but it exists mainly because of a decline in marriage, not because marriage has been strengthened. There are many factors in the decline of marriage and the arguments for gay marriage can certainly be factored into the decline. We do not ensure social stability by saying that anything goes.

What is important about morality is that things are moral because they have been proven better over generations, not simply by the fiat of tradition. Especially true is that behaviors are not right simply because people we love do them. The state of Portman’s son’s sexuality has nothing to do with what is right for society. If his son were a womanizer who had many children by many different women, do you suppose Portman would promote polygamy so his son could marry all of those women and make “honest women” of them and save his grandchildren from the stigma of illegitimacy? I don’t think so. Anyone following his heart when it means ignoring his head becomes muddled; we want to love our children whatever they do. We do love, despite what they do, but that does not mean we must condone what they do. Portman has fallen prey to relativism, as the word can be variously understood.


Wednesday, March 6, 2013, 9:23 AM

Why don’t people take the sequester seriously? How about this:

In its bid to make the sequester as painful as possible, the White House announced Tuesday that it is canceling all visitor tours of the White House “during the popular Spring touring season.” This fits President Obama’s political strategy to punish the eighth graders visiting from Illinois instead of, say, the employees of the Agriculture Department who will attend a California conference sipping “exceptional local wines” and sampling “tasty dishes” prepared by “special guest chefs.”

Anyone doubt there will be plenty of stories like this one in the coming weeks? Pete and other Twitterites might enjoy the Tom Coburn twitter feed as a source of daily outrage about the way the executive branch manages taxpayer money. What do you suppose is worse, the sequester or the political use it put to?


Tuesday, March 5, 2013, 8:31 PM

The Republicans are winning this one, according to John Feehery.

We’ll see, I suppose.


Monday, March 4, 2013, 10:08 AM

Arthur Brooks argues that conservatives have Faulty Moral Arithmetic. He is complaining about Republicans and conservatives, though perhaps more about the perception about Republicans and conservatives than about their essence. There have been many reports and studies over the years about the charitable giving of conservatives. Are our politics not really influenced by our charity? Here is the gist of Brooks’ argument:

Conservatives are fighting a losing battle of moral arithmetic. They hand an argument with virtually 100% public support—care for the vulnerable—to progressives, and focus instead on materialistic concerns and minority moral viewpoints.

The irony is maddening. America’s poor people have been saddled with generations of disastrous progressive policy results, from welfare-induced dependency to failing schools that continue to trap millions of children.

Meanwhile, the record of free enterprise in improving the lives of the poor both here and abroad is spectacular. According to Columbia University economist Xavier Sala-i-Martin, the percentage of people in the world living on a dollar a day or less—a traditional poverty measure—has fallen by 80% since 1970. This is the greatest antipoverty achievement in world history. That achievement is not the result of philanthropy or foreign aid. It occurred because billions of souls have been able to pull themselves out of poverty thanks to global free trade, property rights, the rule of law and entrepreneurship.

The basic point, about the moral value and superior practical benefit of economic liberty seems inescapable. That conservatives do not care about the poor? I’d have to argue about that; how they care might matter. The poor as a problem for society is not the same thing compassion for poor people.

With this moral touchstone, conservative leaders will be able to stand before Americans who are struggling and feel marginalized and say, “We will fight for you and your family, whether you vote for us or not”—and truly mean it. In the end that approach will win. But more important, it is the right thing to do.

One of the appalling things about “social conservatism” was that it was no less set on expanding government programs for the poor than the welfarist’s agenda. That kind of thing is just what hurts the poor most in the long run. Free enterprise is “the greatest antipoverty achievement in world history”. Blaming the poor for their poverty is counter-productive; effectively arguing for the best way out of poverty is a winning argument with plenty of empirical evidence from developing nations around the world. What we have been doing in America has exacerbated the gap between the wealthy and the poor, as noted by Charles Murray and also in this video, which probably comes from a very different assumption about the causes of the fact. I see that video as an argument against government anti-poverty policies of the last sixty years and more, as we seem to be losing the “War on Poverty”.

Do the wealthy have a moral right to their wealth? Maybe, but even if they do, but who cares? Apparently, even in a a couple generations of “war” they can take care of themselves.


Saturday, March 2, 2013, 10:46 AM

The more our government has been involved with regulating and directing health care in the US the more expensive that care has become. New, expensive technology: hardware, pharmaceuticals, modes of treatment, are all aspects of modern medical care and wonderful because they keep people alive longer. Those are the results of expensive research and development. Just that matter of keeping people alive longer is expensive. Note I keep using the word “expensive”.

Time magazine’s Stephen Brill looks at current health care costs and pricing, the money-go-round, in “Bitter Pill: Why Medical Bills are Killing Us”. He asks,

Where’s all that money coming from? And where is it going? I have spent the past seven months trying to find out by analyzing a variety of bills from hospitals like MD Anderson, doctors, drug companies and every other player in the American health care ecosystem.

Brill says we spend 20% of our GDP on healthcare. Of course, he also notes that “The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that 10 of the 20 occupations that will grow the fastest in the U.S. by 2020 are related to health care.” Hence, we might conclude, health care is a growth industry in America. That’s not how Mr. Brill sees it. He says,

Employing all those people in the cause of curing the sick is, of course, not anything to be ashamed of. But the drag on our overall economy that comes with taxpayers, employers and consumers spending so much more than is spent in any other country for the same product is unsustainable. Health care is eating away at our economy and our treasury.

Growth industry, eating away… these things might be contradictory, except for how the system works. That is really big and Brill looks at that system from the point of view of people’s hospital bills, which they never look at with any care, and he does not look at offering any real insight. He is also looking at rates of payment for services and procedures; it is all very complicated which makes for a complicated set of complaints. Apparently, this is the biggest article in Time’s history, according to Holman Jenkins in his short piece in the Wall Street Journal. His main complaint against Brill’s point of view is this: “what he describes—big institutions dictating care and assigning prices in ways that make no sense to an outsider—is exactly what you get in a system that insulates consumers from the cost of their health care.”

As Brill notes, if we do look at our bills we find them incomprehensible and outrageous. Most people do not pay their own hospital bills or most of their hospital bills. According to Brill, poor people do and they don’t, which is another piece of complicated contradiction (read the article). For the most part, patients have no incentive to look through bills item by item and figure out what is real, what is unreal, what is reasonable or not reasonable in charges and fees. Yet,

The real issue isn’t whether we have a single payer or multiple payers. It’s whether whoever pays has a fair chance in a fair market. Congress has given Medicare that power when it comes to dealing with hospitals and doctors, and we have seen how that works to drive down the prices Medicare pays, just as we’ve seen what happens when Congress handcuffs Medicare when it comes to evaluating and buying drugs, medical devices and equipment. Stripping away what is now the sellers’ overwhelming leverage in dealing with Medicare in those areas and with private payers in all aspects of the market would inject fairness into the market. We don’t have to scrap our system and aren’t likely to. But we can reduce the $750 billion that we overspend on health care in the U.S. in part by acknowledging what other countries have: because the health care market deals in a life-or-death product, it cannot be left to its own devices.

Fair market? We are not talking about a free market, not at all, as that ended a long time ago. Medicare began in 1965 with a premium of $3 for anyone 65 years old or older. Old people had medical bills three times that of the young, and Medicare was intended to correct that problem, lift that burden. Life expectancy was 67 years for men and 73 years for women. Today, if I am reading this CDC chart correctly, if a person lives to age 65, he can expect to live another 19-20 years after that on average. Life expectancy at birth has not improved all that much in the US, mostly because of crime and accidents. However, if you can make it to 65, you have the great chance of living a very long time. That’s modern medicine for you. I can find no direct correlative statistic, since seniors do not have medical expenses in the same way, but reading statistics from the CDC and the USDHH, generally medical expenses for those over the age of 65 are half of what is spent on medical care in the US. If we really wanted to cap medical expenses in the US, then the kind of cap that would make the best sense in a “Modest Proposal” way would be to execute everyone who comes into the hospital with a major health problem who is over the age of 65 years. Nip it in the bud, that problem of extending life through medical means.* Who can afford it?

If the Brill piece is too long, too anecdote-laden for you, Chris Conover at Forbes has Five Take-Aways from the Brill article. His first is my favorite, that “Healthcare is a Cesspool of Crony Capitalism” and he notes from Brill:

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the pharmaceutical and health-care-product industries, combined with organizations representing doctors, hospitals, nursing homes, health services and HMOs, have spent $5.36 billion since 1998 on lobbying in Washington. That dwarfs the $1.53 billion spent by the defense and aerospace industries and the $1.3 billion spent by oil and gas interests over the same period. That’s right: the health-care-industrial complex spends more than three times what the military-industrial complex spends in Washington.

Part of that might just be lobbying for favorable treatment of drugs being vetted by the FDA, but I also suggest that what is happening in Washington with Medicare and Obamacare is not without the influence and guidance of the “health-care-industrial complex”. Why does Brill and why do others think that more government in the health-care “industry” will bring down costs? In his conclusions, when he says “When you follow the money, you see the choices we’ve made, knowingly or unknowingly,” who could disagree? He deplores that, but what he proposes will actually bring us more of the same.

*Note: I spent part of yesterday at the bedside of a dear friend who is dying of cancer at the age of 100 years old. She says that no one should live that long; it is too hard. No, neither does she see an alternative. “It wasn’t my choice.” She does not blame her doctors. Who would make you die when they can help you live? Looking at modern medicine from her perspective, in a hospice bed, with a sharp mind in an impossibly withered body, it is a wonderful horror what modern medicine can do. That’s another story.


Sunday, February 24, 2013, 9:12 PM

The biggest story this weekend concerning the nation’s financial condition and especially the sequester is the prevarication of the president. The other day the president made a speech wherein he bashed the Republicans for creating the frightening situation of the sequester. The government would shut down because of the disaster created by Republicans in Congress.

What did the president say, again?

Now, if Congress allows this meat-cleaver approach to take place, it will jeopardize our military readiness; it will eviscerate job-creating investments in education and energy and medical research. It won’t consider whether we’re cutting some bloated program that has outlived its usefulness, or a vital service that Americans depend on every single day. It doesn’t make those distinctions.

Emergency responders like the ones who are here today — their ability to help communities respond to and recover from disasters will be degraded. Border Patrol agents will see their hours reduced. FBI agents will be furloughed. Federal prosecutors will have to close cases and let criminals go. Air traffic controllers and airport security will see cutbacks, which means more delays at airports across the country. Thousands of teachers and educators will be laid off. Tens of thousands of parents will have to scramble to find childcare for their kids. Hundreds of thousands of Americans will lose access to primary care and preventive care like flu vaccinations and cancer screenings.

How terrifying is the sequester? According to the WSJ, we are talking about 2.4% of the budget. What’s that, again?

$85 billion? That sounds like a lot of money. How does this compare with the size of the government’s budget? The government spent $3.538 trillion in the fiscal year that ended in September 2012. So $85 billion is 2.4% of the federal budget. What’s unusual about the sequester, though, is that some of the largest programs in the federal budget are exempt. That means the cuts are concentrated on a smaller pool of government programs. Depending on the agency, cuts are going to be in the ballpark of 5% and 13%, according to various estimates from government officials.

As George Will says,

Batten down the hatches — the sequester will cut $85 billion from this year’s $3.6 trillion budget! Or: Head for the storm cellar — spending will be cut 2.3 percent! Or: Washington chain-saw massacre — we must scrape by on 97.7 percent of current spending! Or: Chaos is coming because the sequester will cut a sum $25 billion larger than was just shoveled out the door (supposedly, but not actually) for victims of Hurricane Sandy! Or: Heaven forfend, the sequester will cut 47 percent as much as was spent on the AIG bailout! Or: Famine, pestilence and locusts will come when the sequester causes federal spending over 10 years to plummet from $46 trillion all the way down to $44.8 trillion! Or: Grass will grow in the streets of America’s cities if the domestic agencies whose budgets have increased 17 percent under President Obama must endure a 5 percent cut!

Hmmmm. So our president is exaggerating about the extent of the sequester and suggesting in that speech that it is all Congress’s fault? Also in the WSJ, Speaker Boehner reminded us about the summer of 2011 and The Budget Control Act.

The plan called for immediate caps on discretionary spending (to save $917 billion) and the creation of a special House-Senate “super committee” to find an additional $1.2 trillion in savings. The deal also included a simple but powerful mechanism to ensure that the committee met its deficit-reduction target: If it didn’t, the debt limit would not be increased again in a few months.

But President Obama was determined not to face another debt-limit increase before his re-election campaign. Having just blown up one deal, the president scuttled this bipartisan, bicameral agreement. His solution? A sequester.

With the debt limit set to be hit in a matter of hours, Republicans and Democrats in Congress reluctantly accepted the president’s demand for the sequester, and a revised version of the Budget Control Act was passed on a bipartisan basis.

Who is telling the truth? Bob Woodward of the Washington Post says,

The president and Lew had this wrong. My extensive reporting for my book “The Price of Politics” shows that the automatic spending cuts were initiated by the White House and were the brainchild of Lew and White House congressional relations chief Rob Nabors — probably the foremost experts on budget issues in the senior ranks of the federal government.

Obama personally approved of the plan for Lew and Nabors to propose the sequester to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). They did so at 2:30 p.m. July 27, 2011, according to interviews with two senior White House aides who were directly involved.

Tell me I am wrong, but my memory of the news about the 2011 budget talks was that the sequester was proposed by the White House because they thought the new Republican Congress would never agree to major defense cuts. But they did though neither side seemed to think we would get to this point where cuts actually happen. Guess what? Who wants the blame? Will it matter? The cuts do not touch the real spending problems nor do they amount to enough to do real good. This begins to sound like much ado about nothing, but if the president is willing to lie about all of this, then surely there must be something here we are missing.

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