I posted about a survey taken under the AP’s auspices that showed 40% wanted even more government control over health care, while only 20% opposed it and wanted repeal. I don’t trust the survey for reasons I mentioned. I still think that, and have taken the careful responses from those who disagree–which I appreciate–into consideration.
The bottom line, it seems to me, is that the Democrats are not running as if that poll is true. That would seem to indicate their own polling shows that most people oppose Obamacare as going to far, not far enough.
In this regard, I saw this Rasmussen Poll today that shows 56% wanting repeal. Rasmussen has been very reliable pollster in recent election cycles and is considered a top tier pollster. From the poll:
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Likely Voters nationwide now favor repeal of the new health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor repeal, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. That’s down slightly from results found last week, when 61% favored repeal of the bill. Thirty-five percent (35%) oppose repeal of the law, including 25% who are Strongly Opposed. To see survey question wording, click here. Since Congress’ passage of the bill in late March, however, a majority of voters have consistently favored repeal of the new law, with support ranging from a low of 53% to a high of 63%
And this is very interesting:
There also continues to be a large divide between the Political Class and Mainstream voters on the issue. While 73% of Mainstream voters favor repeal of the law, 86% of voters in the Political Class oppose repeal.
Take a look at how R identifies the “political class.” Another word might be elites. I think that includes the MSM.
So, we have a political class minority pushing against the wishes of the majority of the American people on this issue. At election time, pipers must be paid. That is why it was so hard to pass Obamacare, and why so many of the law’s enacters are running away from their handiwork only months after passing it with great fanfare.
September 28th, 2010 | 12:47 pm
Any reason you’re not picking apart their methodology like you tried to do with the UPI poll, Wes?
It wouldn’t be because this poll, from a pollster that seems to consistently skew right-wing, agrees with your pre-existing conditions?
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 28th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Yes. Because he has been particularly reliable in recent elections, and is considered widely a top notch pollster. You should look in the mirror on this one, padraig, given your slur that he is “right-wing kerfluffle,” which if true would soon doom him to oblivion, rather than fame. Besides, his poll, unlike the other, is far more in line with other polls.
September 28th, 2010 | 12:53 pm
Oh, and here’s a beauty.
My first question was, “Political Class”? What the HECK is the “Political Class”?
It took me three links to find it, but here’s Rasmussen’s “definition:”
‘In the survey, the term “Political Class” is not defined (see question wording). ‘
If I needed any more proof that Rasmussen is a bunch of right-wing kerfluffle, this pretty well does it. Their survey is about as scientific as Tarot cards.
September 28th, 2010 | 1:57 pm
Wes: ‘he is “right-wing kerfluffle,” which if true would soon doom him to oblivion, rather than fame.’
Right-wing kerfluffle is pretty darn profitable these days, Wes. Check out Rush’s house down in Florida if you don’t believe me.
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 28th, 2010 at 11:08 pm
padraig: He’s never invited me. But seriously, Rasmussen isn’t a hack. I still say the Democrats are running like he is right and the other poll wrong. Don’t you think?
September 28th, 2010 | 2:16 pm
Complete repeal of ObamaCare is the acid test of the tea party movement.
September 28th, 2010 | 3:14 pm
From his website (which is not organized logically and does very poorly for people looking at long-term trends. He and Zogby can do good polling but their website staffers needs the axe):
The Political Class Index is based on three questions. All three clearly address populist tendencies and perspectives, all three have strong public support, and, for all three questions, the populist perspective is shared by a majority of Democrats, Republicans and those not affiliated with either of the major parties. We have asked the questions before, and the results change little whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge of the government.
In many cases, the gap between the Mainstream view and the Political Class is larger than the gap between Mainstream Republicans and Mainstream Democrats.
The questions used to calculate the Index are:
– Generally speaking, when it comes to important national issues, whose judgment do you trust more – the American people or America’s political leaders?
– Some people believe that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Has the federal government become a special interest group?
– Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors?
To create a scale, each response earns a plus 1 for the populist answer, a minus 1 for the political class answer, and a 0 for not sure.
Those who score 2 or higher are considered a populist or part of the Mainstream. Those who score -2 or lower are considered to be aligned with the Political Class. Those who score +1 or -1 are considered leaners in one direction or the other.
In practical terms, if someone is classified with the Mainstream, they agree with the Mainstream view on at least two of the three questions and don’t agree with the Political Class on any.
Initially, Rasmussen Reports labeled the groups Populist and Political Class. However, despite the many news stories referring to populist anger over bailouts and other government actions, the labels created confusion for some. In particular, some equated populist attitudes with the views of the late-19th century Populist Party. To avoid that confusion and since a majority clearly hold skeptical views about the ruling elites, we now label the groups Mainstream and Political Class.
September 28th, 2010 | 3:19 pm
Well-recognized but unintentional sampling bias tilts Rasmussen’s recent poll results to the right. An analysis by Nate Silver concluded:
“The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen’s polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters.”
Rasmussen overrepresents Republican voters 5 or 6%.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html
At Real Clear Politics, for the latest 10 Rasmussen polls, the averages were 37% Favor and 57.3% Oppose Health Care Reform(+20.3% difference). For the last 10 non-Rasmussen polls average results were 40.3% Favor and Oppose 50.6% (+10.3% difference).
Rasmussen likely has incorporated a systematic error into their sampling methods. Or it’s possible that Rasmussen has it right and every other national poll is wrong.
That said, even without the flawed Rasmussen data, in general, 40% favor and 51% oppose Health Care Reform.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html
September 28th, 2010 | 3:32 pm
That’s all very enlightening, JC, but the point is that Rasmussen asked their respondents what they thought about the “Political Class” without explaining what they meant by it. It’s a vague, slightly elitist term, so of course the response is negative. It’s a made-up, nearly meaningless term as used. I take it as a sign that, for this particular poll at least, Rasmussen was more interested in countering the UPI poll than it was in measuring opinion.
I mean, doesn’t the timing at least look a LITTLE suspicious?
September 28th, 2010 | 4:40 pm
Rasmussen reports has been justly praised for its accuracy in predicting the results of the 2004 presidential elections and the 2006 general elections but has since acquired a reputation as a conservative leaning pollster especially when it comes to polls about issues. As David Weigel wrote in 2009:
His poll numbers for those supporting repeal have been consistently high and frequently exceed the proportion of those who (according to other pollsters) oppose the legislation. This March article from the American Conservative points this out:
No other studies I’ve come across have results comparable to Rasmussen’s. A CNN poll (conducted this September) has 47% favouring repeal and 49% saying the bill should either be left as it is or that “federal lawmakers should make additional changes to increase the government’s involvement in health care”.
There are probably lots of other poll results out there – and I’m sure you came across others with results that failed to meet with your approval. Most show that while more Americans oppose “Obamacare” than support it, a majority do not wish to see it repealed. It’s unfortunate that you chose to go with the Republican pollster of choice, rather than give us a sampling of results from rather less controversial sources. You obviously went out looking for a poll to confirm your expectations – not an intellectually honest course of action, and not very useful for your readers.
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 29th, 2010 at 6:34 am
As I have stated repeatedly, WE CAN JUDGE THE TRUTH BY THE WAY THE POLITICIANS ACT. Railing against the faux right wing conspiracy doesn’t change the facts on the ground. If the first poll was deemed accurate, both Republicans and Democrats, particularly the latter, would act consistently with that public sentiment on the campaign trail. But they are acting as if Rasmussen is correct. Hence, it seems much more likely that R has the better take on the public pulse.
Raven C., we are not the UK or Europe.
September 28th, 2010 | 5:13 pm
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Vince Humphreys, Stand In The Gap, J. Robert Howell, Michael Stryder, Sherri Draper and others. Sherri Draper said: RT @CO2HOG: SHS: Rasmussen: Majority Want Obamacare Repealed–”Political Class” Doesn’t http://bit.ly/cjkGKN #tcot [...]
September 28th, 2010 | 6:51 pm
Actually Tarot Cards can be quite scientific if applied using psychological rules.
September 29th, 2010 | 7:23 am
Notice: UPI’s results were termed a “poll” — the term actually put in quotes by Wesley, as if to say “so-called” for the purpose of denigrating the result. Rasmussen’s ill-defined statements about “the political class,” however, get top billing as if their results were the truth, the whole truth and nothing but. Just like Faux News — unfair and unbalanced.
September 29th, 2010 | 9:24 am
Raven,
There are no pollsters of independent repute. Every single one has their bias, so please don’t act like Rasmussen is some mysteriously biased outlier. Every pollster has to subjectively weigh every silly little demographic. They are all useful, to a point, mostly for trends, since they tend to apply the same weighting methods over time. The first thing you learn in political science statistics, the first 10 minutes of the course is that you can take the same sample and get them to give completely contradictory results. But you know this.
I believe Wesley’s point is good about how the politicos are treating the situation on the ground (that Obamacare is not popular for many reasons and not getting any more popular) is more accurate than sampling sizes and phrased questions, especially from the AP. If they really did believe people thought they didn’t go far enough, they would be plastering every media outlet with a focus group message. At the end of the day, you have to admit, Rasmussen has been pretty spot on with predictions for elections, and that’s the only objective way to examine pollsters. Remember, most other polling outfits are hired through media companies, and those media companies have their own apparent political bias. And whether Padraig likes the term or not, most “political class” types who find themselves attracted to the political system and the policy process tend to skew liberal, be it in state capitols, national media or polling firms and even Republican staffers.
September 29th, 2010 | 11:24 am
Wes: “I still say the Democrats are running like he is right and the other poll wrong.”
Certainly the Republicans are. What Democrats do so I think are mistaken. The big percentages aren’t for outright repeal, which is what the tea partiers are promising, and that ain’t gonna happen.
I’ve seen a lot of indications that the health reform provisions that have gone into effect have had a good effect, and that people are noticing. The Republicans run the risk that people will look at the actual results of the reform rather than the scaremongering, and that could backlash against them.
September 29th, 2010 | 1:57 pm
Wesley,
Your critics are predictable and unimaginative.
September 29th, 2010 | 3:28 pm
Wes and JustChris:
Don’t misunderstand me. I believe that Rasmussen’s results represent something very real about the sentiments of likely voters. The fact that they are the Republican “pollster of choice” does not necessarily mean that their results are inaccurate (by all indications they are among the most reliable pollsters out there when measured against the single most important criterion – the outcomes of elections). It does mean that we need to look very closely at what precisely the results say and how they have been presented.
This poll, for instance, does not tell us about the positions of “the American public”. It rather focuses on that subset of the American public likely to turn up at the polls in November. All indications are that, in this election cycle at least, this group of motivated voters lean conservative and are far more likely than the Average Joe to oppose the healthcare legislation. The CNN poll, conducted amongst American adults (and not just likely voters) over the same time period, had more people opposed to repeal than supporting it.
Obviously politicians care about public opinion only to the extent that it affects election results – and that is one of the reasons why (presumably) Democrats are running scared. A large number of people who favour the healthcare bill are unimpressed by the current crop of Democrats in congress and appear far less likely than their Republican counterparts to show up at the polls. It is irrelevant that half the country happens to be on your side if that half stays home on election day.
There’s also the issue that these are national polls and the November elections are (correct me if I’m wrong) based on results in congressional districts. If the members of his own constituency favour repeal it is of no consequence to a Democratic congressman what the national polls say.
It doesn’t help that the results of the AP poll are apparently being unintentionally misinterpreted and it makes them seem more of an outlier than they are (though at this point it seems clear that their figures are markedly at variance with those from other pollsters). The AP poll still has more respondents opposed to healthcare than supporting it. It shows that most members of the public are deeply dissatisfied with the way the whole process was handled and that more of them distrust the federal government than trust it. It also shows that more people prefer a small government providing fewer services to a large one providing a lot of services. And although the poll has 40% favouring greater government intervention in healthcare it also has comparable numbers favouring less (and these appear to be more motivated). These results are entirely consistent with “the way the Democrats on the ground are running”.
The bottom line though is that, as we probably all know, the Rasmussen poll is almost certainly more representative of what will happen in the November elections. A substantial number of Americans wish the reforms had gone further but more would like to loosen the grip of federal regulators on healthcare.
[I find myself struck by the wording of the question asked in the Rasmussen survey. It begins: "A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect . . ."
In spite of all that has been said about sampling errors and partisan bias I feel that this phrasing accounts for most of the difference between the Rasmussen pro-repeal percentages and those of other pollsters. Voters who are led to believe (or reminded) that the process of repeal is either underway or under serious consideration, who are primed with the idea hands are poised to smoothly turn back the clock to a time before the nastiness of Obamacare, are more likely to support the process than if they are asked without this reminder. This doesn't diminish the validity of the resulting figures (voters in the real world, after all, are never presented propositions without some kind of contextual priming) but it just serves to remind us how dramatically poll results may be altered by word choice (as previously demonstrated in polls about euthanasia and assisted suicide).]
September 29th, 2010 | 3:51 pm
Tim: “Wesley, your critics are predictable and unimaginative.”
I knew you were going to say that, Tim.
September 29th, 2010 | 10:12 pm
According to Real Clear Politics the average of the latest eight polls (including the latest Rasmussen “poll”) find that 52% oppose healthcare reform and 40% are in favor.
Wesley expects us to believe that more people want repeal (R’s 57% and Yahoo’s 65%) than oppose healthcare reform (52%).
Does it make sense that more Americans favor repeal than oppose reform?
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 30th, 2010 at 12:48 am
Well Jeffrey, we’ll find out in November. But the Democrats are running from Obamacare for a reason. And it isn’t because the people support it.
September 30th, 2010 | 7:49 am
You claim that 57% (Rasmussen) to 65% (Yahoo) of Americans want to repeal health care reform. You also claim that “Democrats are running from Obamacare” without offering evidence. When challenged, you retreat to “we’ll find out in November”. Do you now contend that expected Democratic House and Senate losses in the mid-term elections is evidence to support your above claims?
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 30th, 2010 at 9:51 am
Jeffrey: Read the news. Most Dems aren’t even bringing the issue up and those that do are the ones who voted no.
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