I can’t believe this is controversial. The debate over whether to publish a paper describing how scientists bioengineered a deadly bird flu to make it airborne–and hence super deadly to humans–continues. The US Government–which foolishly funded the experiment–now wants it censored to prevent the knowledge from getting into the hands of terrorists. Right call. But as I noted in an earlier post on this subject, they should have thought of that before funding and established rules ahead of time if the experiment succeeded.
Now, the scientists who created the potentially Armageddon Flu (I’ll call it) are truculently resisting the needed censorship. But the stakes are too high in this case for academic freedom to prevail. From the NYT story:
The naturally occurring A(H5N1) virus is quite lethal without genetic tinkering. It already causes an exceptionally high death rate in humans, more than 50 percent. But the virus, a type of bird flu, does not often infect people, and when it does, they almost never transmit it to one another. If, however, that were to change and bird flu were to develop the ability to spread from person to person, scientists fear that it could cause the deadliest flu pandemic in history. The experiment in Rotterdam transformed the virus into the supergerm of virologists’ nightmares, enabling it to spread from one animal to another through the air. The work was done in ferrets, which catch flu the same way people do and are considered the best model for studying it.
The story notes that the Spanish Flu that caused the pandemic circa 1918 only had a 2% lethality rate.
The scientists involved justify their work by stating if they could bio engineer the mutations, the same mutations could happen in nature. True, as to possibility, but extremely unlikely as to actuality. The scientists intelligently designed the mutations to effectuate a specific purpose. That isn’t how natural selection works. Besides, sometimes you have to use common sense. The dangers of creating a potential catstrophe far outweigh the benefits to be gained by the scientific knowledge derived. Or to put it another way, just because something might be scientifically interesting doesn’t mean it should be done, or that once done, it should be published.
And here’s some real cluelessness:
Some scientists dismiss fears of bioterrorism via influenza, because flu viruses would not make practical weapons: they cannot be targeted, and they would also infect whoever deployed them. Dr. Fouchier said it would be easier to weaponize other germs. Which ones? He would not answer. “That should tell you something,” he said. “I won’t tell you what I as a virologist would use, but I would publish this work.”
Good grief! Talk about refusing to see the world as it really is. Read a newspaper! Every day of the week and there are stories of people blowing themselves into vapor in order to kill 20 or 30 people in the service of a religiously-motivated powerfully Utopian cause. Do these scientists really think that most radical Jihadists wouldn’t hesitate to spread the flu, even knowing they would contract it themselves, if they thought it would destroy the West? Not only would they, but would expect to be rewarded in heaven for so doing.
There are others who might also want to destroy civilization. Take someone as crazy as the Unabomber, but with a profoundly unhinged deep ecology Utopian obsession. He/she/they might well be willing to attempt to actualize the radical environmentalist desire to reduce the human population to under 1 billion in order to “save the planet.” I mean, some have yearned publicly for the very kind of pandemic this engineered flu virus could unleash. Not that those advocates would spread it, but there could well be at least a few crazy enought to try and make it so.
Naivite can be lethal. So yes, censor this work completely, make the information inaccessible to hackers like “Anonymous,” and destroy those altered viruses. We would be mad to let this information become accessible and/or this virus to escape the lab. The scientists who created this threat owe it to the world to make sure that Contagion remains just a movie.
December 27th, 2011 | 2:03 pm
I thought of the deep ecologist/deep ecology movement when I read this-at least the ones I’ve read about at SHS. If they are serious, they’d see this as a gift to them. I suspect they’d develop a vaccine for themselves before setting the birds lose. Maybe we’d see a remake of “The Birds.” I wonder if stories like this will lead to more claims that HIV was an engineered virus, meant to destroy Africa etc. Someone will definitely write a book or include it in some apocalyptic book comparing it to the plagues that are to come at the end according to the apocalypse described in the Revelation of St. John.
The worst thing to me about these sort of created viruses is that if the Deep Ecologists or terrorists ever get a hold of it, they’d see it as a gift to their causes.
December 27th, 2011 | 3:21 pm
[...] of deadly H5N1 bird flu mutations test scientific ethicsLos Angeles TimesTIME -CTV.ca -First Things (blog)all 68 news [...]
December 27th, 2011 | 3:35 pm
Wesley, in Contagion, the pandemic is caused by a virus which mutates in the wild, crosses the species barrier, and unleashes havoc on an unprepared world. This is precisely the scenario which the scientists are working to avoid.
They established that it is easy to create an airborne form of the virus. So few mutations were involved that this could soon happen in the wild, without human intervention or “intelligent design”. They also established that this airborne virus would still retain its lethality – something many eminent virologists had doubted.
Why are these discoveries important? First of all, it alerts us to the possibility of an airborne flu pandemic. This is not just the stuff of disaster movies, it is a very real threat for which we should have contingency plans. Secondly, if the genetic sequence of the mutated virus is published, this would allow public health authorities to track the virus’s progress in the wild. It would be possible to tell how close a wild strain of the flu virus is to going airborne. A flu outbreak caused by a viral strain one or two mutations away from the published version, for instance, would be cause for great concern and concerted action.
Clearly, there are security issues to consider – but I am more concerned by the thought that the virus may be inadvertently released from labs with inadequate safety protocols than by any fears that it may be deliberately disseminated by terrorists. No jihadist would be willing to unleash a virus that would leap across national boundaries, kill indiscriminately and ultimately find its way back to his or her own people. Suicide bombers may sacrifice their own lives if this sends a message to the infidels, but they rarely sacrifice the lives of their own wives and children or those of the wives and children of their brethren.
There may well be some crazy people out there who would be willing to release a deadly virus on an unsuspecting world. However, it is unlikely that any of these crazies would have access to the relevant research facilities or even begin to know what to do with a published viral gene sequence. Creating a lethal virus isn’t like building a bomb. You can’t just get the instructions off the internet and head down to the nearest Radioshack for parts. And, furthermore, the people who would know what to do with the gene sequence would be able to cause more targeted damage using other viruses. As Dr Fouchier himself suggests, “terrorists” to whom this information would be useful would already have other far more effective means of wreaking havoc at their disposal.
The threat to security is real (I do not think the US Government would be getting involved if it were not) but we must nonetheless consider both sides of the argument without hysteria or condescension. I notice, for instance, that you refer to Dr Fouchier as “naive”. Here is a scientist with expertise in viral evolution and pandemics, a researcher who has been active in the field of virology for circa two decades. You may disagree with him but please appreciate that he has probably spent a great deal more time thinking about this subject than you have and is probably a lot more informed about bioterrorism than you are. Take a little time to try to understand what his argument is before you dismiss it so casually. A little humility wouldn’t hurt.
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
December 27th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
I saw the movie, Raven. The point of using it was that it was a vivid depiction of what could happen. And that involved spread by touch, not airborne. Don’t be such a rigid literalist, it is really wearisome. And please, no condescension.. I understand the argument. I consider it folly, particularly if it is published after which it would be readily makeable by many bad players. Humility was what these scientists needed specifically, and the sector needs generally.
December 27th, 2011 | 4:37 pm
A big 10-4, Raven. I’ll add two things: first, these eco-terrorists usually aren’t terribly technically astute. I’m far more worried about natural mutations than I am about them following a set of technical directions correctly.
Second, when viruses like this develop, and they often have, there are usually both natural and man-made barriers that limit their range and seriousness. Otherwise we’d all be dead of Ebola or the 1918 flu or H1N1 or H1N5 or whatever already.
So this needs to be taken seriously, but panic-mongering like calling this the “Armageddon Virus” is uncalled for and irresponsible.
Remember, when we were all worried about missile strikes and suitcase nukes, the most successful terrorist strike on U.S. soil only needed boxcutters and plane tickets. We need to focus on the terrorists, not their tools.
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
December 27th, 2011 at 4:55 pm
Of course, this has never been done before and counting on unsophistication of potential terrorists is idiotic. Heck, N Korea got the bomb and if one is willing to die to spread the virus…. Airborne bird flu with 50 percent kill rate would properly be called an Armageddon virus if it got out. And many SCIENTISTS are very concerned, not just SHS. What hubris and reckless complacency.
December 27th, 2011 | 5:22 pm
This is a perfect doomsday weapon, a retaliatory device that could be set loose by a regime threatened with overthrow or conquest, a “Samson pulling down the pillars onto the Philistines” moment.
Saying you will “concentrate on the terrorists” is a joke. We don’t know they are terrorists until AFTER they kill people. We cannot maintain a level of surveillance on people with no prior history of terrorist actions that would prevent them from using this research to weaponize bird flu. While trying to keep guns out of the hands of bad guys is useless because guns are ubiquitous, the entire effort of the TSA searches at airports is an attempt to deny terrorists access to the “weapons” of civilian aircraft. Publishing all of this research is like giving every terrorist his own jet plane, and telling him all he needs is a few thousand gallons of Jet A-1 to fuel it.
padraig Reply:
December 27th, 2011 at 6:38 pm
@Raymond Takashi Swenson, the plans for building an atomic bomb were published 20+ years ago. How many terrorist a-bombs have gone off? You watch too much television.
And Wes, North Korea is an actual country with an actual military and actual scientists. They don’t compare to four vegans talking big in the back of a coffee shop. Most of their threats are sabre-rattling to take their citizens’ minds off their real problems.
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
December 27th, 2011 at 8:19 pm
Four vegans? Jihadists? How moronic can you get? Oh, and that Unabomber, yea, he was an eccentric anti tech guy sure, but really, just a harmless hermit living without electricity in the woods. Not very bright either.
You teach people how to create an Armageddon flu and someone will, and not to find a vaccine.
padraig Reply:
December 28th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
@Wesley J. Smith, the Unabomber was actually a very bright guy, just completely insane. And he didn’t need a germ bomb to wreak havoc.
And what’s moronic is worrying about armageddon bugs and imaginary terrorists instead of trying to solve real and imminent problems.
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
December 28th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
My point exactly regarding the Unabomber (who killed one of our best friend’s boss). You pooh poohed the potential of “four vegans” having no sophistication. But insane people like Unabomber have plenty of ability to take a method of mutating a virus into a killer and then releasing it. So do Jihadists, and they are clearly up for killing as many people as they can by whatever means. If the information about how to mutate this virus is published, it will become a potentially imminent problem. Because then, anyone will be able to do it, sane and responsible mostly, but it would only take one insane and murderous to kill a lot of people.
Raven Chukwu Reply:
December 28th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
@Wesley J. Smith, The responsible course of action, in my opinion, is to publish enough information to aid further research into developing countermeasures but withhold details about precisely how the lethal strain was created. This (and not complete censorship) is what the US government urges.
[Art Caplan also has a take on this. Note the absence of hysteria.]
padraig Reply:
December 29th, 2011 at 12:17 pm
@Raven Chukwu, Excellent citation. The panic mongers assume that if this work isn’t published, the problem goes away. Now THAT is naive. If one group of scientists can do it, so can another. Not to mention it simply happening in the wild via natural mutation.
We keep anthrax and smallpox viruses alive for the same reason as this study, so we have some idea how to deal with them if they do spread. It’s a poorly kept secret that in certain places, you could get an anthrax sample by going to a certain place in the woods with a shovel. Silly to think that blocking this study would make us safe.
padraig Reply:
December 29th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
@Wesley J. Smith, Yeah, or they could take boxcutters, or fertilizer, or any other number of household substances and wreak havoc in a much simpler and cheaper fashion.
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
December 29th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Are you that delusional? That’s chump change for these nihilists. They want mass death. As to the jihadists: If they had a nuke, they’d set it off. If they could spread small pox or Armageddon flu, they’d release it in the subways of NYC and DC, if they had chemicals to release, they would. If they could poison the water supply, they would happily. If they caught you and I in a dark alley, they’d cut our throats. They live to destroy, not build up. We should make their task as hard as possible, certainly not give them a formula for a potent biological weapon!
padraig Reply:
December 30th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
@Wesley J. Smith, 9/11 was chump change?
Who’s delusional here?
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
December 30th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Chump change as it relates to the number of people they tried to kill that day, tens of thousands, and the number they want to kill, millions. Wake up and see reality.
Links
Blogs
Find Us
Contact