Hedgehogs and flamingos in Tehran
By Spengler
In Wonderland, Alice played croquet with hedgehogs and flamingos. In the Middle East, United States President Barack Obama is attempting the same thing, but with rats and cobras. Not only do they move at inconvenient times, but they bite the players. Iran’s presidential election on Friday underscores the Wonderland character of American policy in the region.
America’s proposed engagement of Iran has run up against the reality of the region, namely that Iran cannot “moderate” its support for its fractious Shi’ite allies from Beirut to Pakistan’s northwest frontier. It also shows how misguided Obama was to assume that progress on the Palestinian issue would help America solve more urgent strategic problems, such as Iran’s potential acquisition of nuclear weapons.
By assigning 64% of the popular vote to incumbent President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in last weekend’s elections, Iran’s reigning |
mullahs, if there was indeed rigging, made a statement – but to whom? The trumpet which dare not sound an uncertain note was a call to Tehran’s Shi’ite constituency, as well as to a fifth of Pakistani Muslims. Religious establishments by their nature are conservative, and they engage in radical acts only in need.
Tehran is tugged forward by the puppies of war: Hezbollah in Lebanon and its co-sectarians in Pakistan. With a population of 170 million, Pakistan has 20 million men of military age, as many as Iran and Turkey combined; by 2035 it will have half again as many. It also has nuclear weapons. And it is in danger of disintegration.
Against a young, aggressive and unstable Pakistan, Iran seems a moribund competitor. Iran’s fertility decline is the fastest that demographers ever have observed. As I reported on this site last February (Sex, drugs and Islam, February 24, 2009), Iranian fertility by some accounts has fallen below the level of 1.9 births per female registered in the 2006 census to only 1.6, barely above Germany’s.
snip
Ahmadinejad’s invective may be aimed at Jerusalem, but his eye is fixed on Islamabad. That explains the decisions of his masters in Tehran’s religious establishment who may have rigged, or at least exaggerated, his election victory. Pakistan’s ongoing civil war has a critical sectarian component which the Shi’ites never sought: the Taliban claim legitimacy as the Muslim leadership of the country on the strength of their militancy against the country’s Shi’ite minority. Were the Taliban to succeed in crushing Pakistan’s Shi’ites, Iran’s credibility as a Shi’ite power would fade, along with its ability to project influence in the region.
snip
The issue is less baffling when raw numbers are taken into account. The issues on which Iran’s supposed moderation might be relevant, such as the Arab-Israeli conflict, are less pressing for Tehran than the problems on its eastern border. Of the world’s 200 million Shi’ite Muslims, about 30% reside in Iran. Another 10% live in neighboring Iraq, and comprise about two-thirds of the country’s population. Yet another 30% of the Shi’ite live in the Indian sub-continent, about equally divided between India and Pakistan. Pakistani Shi’ites make up only about one-fifth of the country’s population. Their numbers are just large enough to make the Sunnis ill at ease with their presence.
| |
Shi’ite |
Sunni |
| TOTAL |
219,667,367 |
1,238,699,792 |
| Iran |
61,924,500 |
6,880,500 |
| Pakistan |
33,160,712 |
127,668,738 |
| India |
30,900,000 |
123,600,000 |
| Iraq |
18,158,400 |
9,777,600 |
| Turkey |
14,550,000 |
58,200,000 |
|
June 15th, 2009 |
[...] Spengler Must-Read: Hedgehogs and flamingos in Tehran A question nobody needed to ask with Bush: Will Obama stand with Iran’s Democratic Reformers? [...]
June 15th, 2009 |
[...] Hedgehogs and Flamingos in Tehran by David P. Goldman [...]
June 15th, 2009 |
This is the first analysis of the Iranian election that I’ve read this morning that has a real factual basis. It certainly helped me make sense of the situation. Thank you for this insightful analysis.
The statistics on Shi’ite vs Sunni in the various countries are very useful.
June 15th, 2009 |
Mr. Goldman,
I always enjoy your demographic analyses and interpretation of present behavior of nations based on their population trajectory. Our main stream media understand nothing of these kinds of issues as Thomas Friedman’s banal OpEd column today suggests. Like most other journalists who opinionize about the MidEast he is 20 years out of date on his statistics. He cites the often-cited but completely out of data statistic that Iran’s under 30 population is 70% of the total population.
That was true in 1986 and has not been true ever since. According to CIA data, Iran’s median age is now 27, which means the under 30 population is about 56%. This is important, because if the under 30 group were still 70%, Moussavi’s margin of victory would have been much larger than what it was, which of course is a number we don’t know because of the fabrication of results.
Iran’s young adult population (20-40 years old) is now at its historic peak in relative and absolute number. In the past it was smaller and in the future it will be much smaller, as the population rapidly ages and eventually declines, for the reasons you have cited. What this means for the outside world is, if Iranian youth are going to use their demographic preponderance and youthful energy to throw out the theocratic regime, the time to do that is now or very soon. If 5 years go by, and the Islamist regime is still in power, there may not be enough surplus bodies, especially the unemployed ones, to go out into the streets and threaten the stability of the regime. Aging populations rarely stage revolutions.
So, let’s hope for the best, which means the worst for the Islamic regime.
June 15th, 2009 |
This is a very enlightening angle on than the one we’re used to reading about. Thanks.
Although I’m a lightweight on this, I have to ask a question about your previous article – Sex, Drugs and Islam. Your suggestion is that Iran’s demoralization and low birthrate is due to its run-in with modernity. I had always assumed that it was due to its being smothered by a toxic form of Islam since the fall of the Shah. Most of the Iranians I knew, who came here in the 70’s, were practically European in their outlook and proud of their Persian heritage (which was very cosmopolitan and respectful of women). I can imagine that the young people who identify with this world view – and are in still in contact with those who fled – would be very disillusioned with life under the mullahs today.
I do understand that there is another population of poorer citizens in Iran, who were angry with the Shah. I have less familiarity with their worldview but wonder if these folks are disillusioned as well.
June 16th, 2009 |
[...] Spengler asks the crucial question. If the candidates in Iran did not represent “reform” versus the “status quo” (even though the election itself was used as a vehicle for protest) then why didn’t the Ayatollah’s put forward the candidate the media insists on describing as “reformist” instead of Ahmadinejad. “The mystery about the Iranian elections, writes my old friend Daniel Pipes, is why the religious authorities who run the country decided to declare a massive victory for the crude and brutal Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, rather than advance the slick and deceptive Hossein Moussavi.” [...]
June 16th, 2009 |
So?
Should we support the Iranian protests? Maybe with demonstrations of our own?
June 16th, 2009 |
This is a disturbing take on the future of Pakistani – Iranian relations. If what you speculate proves to be true, once Iran can build up a nuclear arsenal, life will become uncomfortably interesting in Southwest Asia.
June 16th, 2009 |
The real demographic question is the distribution of the Iranian population of concern between the (for want of a better term) peasantry and the educated classes. I suspect that it is lopsidedly in favor of the poor. I believe that there is no way for Iran to turn into a semi/demi/sortof democratic republic in a modern sense because the poor are going to support the mullahs or ayatollahs or whatever they are.
June 16th, 2009 |
I have no reason to believe that the protests are likely overthrow the Islamic republic. They appear limited to Tehran and to a relatively narrow base of young people and university students. But the protests will undermine the regime’s legitimacy and demonstrate to the world that it is headed into a blind alley. The Pakistani situation is very hard to read. The army made scorched earth of large parts of the Swat valley. The Punjabis seem quite adept at killing Pashtuns. But I cannot imagine that the successful operation against the Taliban is the end of the story in Pakistan.
June 16th, 2009 |
[...] Spengler: If you missed it, a must-read: Hedgehogs and Flamingos in Tehran Protests do not seem to be slowing down or losing steam Must check-out blog: Where is my vote? [...]
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