What Really Bugs Iran...from Spengler on ATOL
"The only weapons on which Iran can rely are unguided missiles that require no electronic controls and simply shoot in the general direction of a target. At relatively short range and in very large number, these are very effective weapons against Israeli cities, for example.
After the Stuxnet humiliation, and with great uncertainty about the usability of more sophisticated weapons, Iran is likely to risk a demonstration of its power through Hezbollah. The more successful the cyber-war attack on Iran's nuclear capacities, therefore, the more dangerous becomes southern Lebanon."
This is one of the stories that belong in the file titled, "Great Ironies of Modernization." The more sophisticated technology becomes, the more primitive the means of warfare become. Why is this so?
The period of the Cold War between the two great industrial superpowers produced the frightening situation known as MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction. Both sides had nuclear equipped long-range missiles, remote-controlled, that could traverse the circumference of the earth and end up on the other side in a fairly accurately controlled trajectory that would blowup a city like Hiroshima or Nagasaki. Each side had in the range of 15 to 20,000 of these missiles at the peak, before denuclearization began.
Russia was a backward country in most respects when it went communist, but it had an intelligentsia that was second to none in the world in its brilliance and devotion to excelling in science and other fields like classical music. That's why they could produce such high-level technology, before their brainpower (heavily Jewish) emigrated starting in the 1970's. By the peak of the Cold War, they were the equivalent of the US in technological prowess and manpower, which is why neither side could risk a direct confrontation with the other in an all-out war. Instead, they fought small guerilla wars and localized conflicts all over the third world, letting other primitive peoples take the casualties and collateral damage.
For those of us who followed these things, Jonah Savimbi in Angola, the immortalized Contras in Nicaragua, various tinpot figures in the Islamic world, were all the vehicles for American warfare against the Soviet Union with fairly primitive weapons in the hands of primitive people, while the nuclear-tipped missiles stood silent and decayed from obsolescence.
Iran wants to join the club of great powers in the world, now that the Soviet Union is gone, the EU has been emasculated, and America is growing tired. Problem is they don't have the brainpower the Soviet Union had, and emigration is allowed, and therefore quite massive. Gorbachev knew the Soviet Union could not compete with the US the minute he allowed the gates of emigration to open to Jews and others. Iran's Islamic thugs think Islam is enough and infidel brainpower isn't needed.
If Stuxnet was anywhere near as successful as we think, we are now back to the age of primitive warfare between proxies. Except in this case, the Israeli proxy is Israel itself. Israel has no proxies. If Hezbollah tries anything against Israel this time around, it will be its last war for them. Iran is going down and will soon lack enough exportable oil to fund Hezbollah's pointless activities, in any case. The best point in Spengler's essay is that without the trained brainpower, you can't trust your "advanced" military equipment these days. Who knows what malicious viruses lurk within the software? A missile fired from Central Iran may end up landing on ....Teheran! So, it's back to short-range Scud missiles and the cannon fodder of South Lebanon.