Get out of Muni Bond Funds Now

[Marcus]

. . my argument was predicated on a government making sweeping cuts in public welfare, a policy they would support, and a widepread breeakdoen of public order, especially in the inner cities, as a result. That is when I see the TP supporting "firm measures," all in the name of "ordered liberty," of course. . .

Exactly. Anyone remember Kent State?

Tocqueville wondered, as he pondered democracy in America, where the democratic impulse—that is, the disintegration of class-oriented social order—would lead as it worked itself out politically. Ike warned us of the military-industrial-congressional complex. Is there then a place for a professional army in a democracy? Or is a professional army rather an instrument of statism and state control?

[Michael]

. . my argument was predicated on a government making sweeping cuts in public welfare, a policy they would support, and a widepread breeakdoen of public order, especially in the inner cities, as a result. That is when I see the TP supporting "firm measures," all in the name of "ordered liberty," of course. . .

Exactly. Anyone remember Kent State?

Tocqueville wondered, as he pondered democracy in America, where the democratic impulse—that is, the disintegration of class-oriented social order—would lead as it worked itself out politically. Ike warned us of the military-industrial-congressional complex. Is there then a place for a professional army in a democracy? Or is a professional army rather an instrument of statism and state control?

Toqueville's views seem to have undergone some developement when he became Citoyen de Tocqueville in the Constituent Assembly.

Here is an extract from his speech of 12 September 1848

Finally, the French Revolution wished—and it is this which made it not only sacred but holy in the eyes of the people—to introduce charity into politics. It conceived the notion of duty towards the poor, towards the suffering, something more extended, more universal than had ever preceded it. It is this idea that must be recaptured, not, I repeat, by substituting the prudence of the State for individual wisdom, but by effectively coming to the aid of those in need, to those who, after having exhausted their resources, would be reduced to misery if not offered help, through those means which the State already has at its disposal. That is essentially what the French Revolution aimed at, and that is what we ourselves must do.

I ask, is that socialism?

From the Left: Yes! Yes, exactly what socialism is

Citizen de Tocqueville: Not at all!

No, that is not socialism but Christian charity applied to politics. There is nothing in it . . .

(Interruption.)

There is nothing there which gives to workers a claim on the State. There is nothing in the Revolution which forces the State to substitute itself in the place of the individual foresight and caution, in the place of the market, of individual integrity. There is nothing in it which authorizes the State to meddle in the affairs of industry or to impose its rules on it, to tyrannize over the individual in order to better govern him, or, as it is insolently claimed, to save him from himself. There is nothing in it but Christianity applied to politics.

Yes, the February Revolution must be Christian and democratic, but it must on no account be socialist. These words sum up all my thinking and I leave you with them.

Having witnessed the June Days, three months earlier, when General Eugène Cavaignac had killed 1,500 insurgants on the streets of Paris, summarily executed 3,000 more and deported another 4,000 to Algeria, Tocqueville seems to have become less doctrinaire on the role of the state.

Nevertheless, he supported Cavignac's action in preventing a socialist revolution and without the need of a professional army. As he says, in the same speech

the French Revolution peopled the land of France with ten million property-owners

In other words, the peasant proprietors created by the breakup of the estates of the great feudal nobility. It was their sons who formed the backbone of the conscript army of the Second Republic. Both as voters and as soldiers, these could be relied on to see off socialism, in a country where electoral districts were, effectively, based on territory, not population.

Yes, I do remember Kent State, but wasn't that the National Guard, rather than the army?

[Marcus]

Michael,

Yes, it was the National Guard. But it does, in my eyes anyway, illustrate your point about the possibility of alienation between the military and the populace in general.

As for Tocqueville, I must shamefully admit, at my age, to just having begun Democracy In America for the first time and am only in the Introduction. That said, I see no contradiction whatever between his views there stated and the quote you posted. How the [irresistible] democratic impulse of the previous centuries would eventually express itself in the state seems to be his primary concern.

Hence my question: Is, in terms of principle, a professional army possible in a democracy?

Do you know whether Tocqueville was Roman Catholic or Protestant?

[CognitiveDistoibance]

Right enough, but my argument was predicated on a government making sweeping cuts in public welfare, a policy they would support, and a widepread breeakdoen of public order, especially in the inner cities, as a result. That is when I see the TP supporting "firm measures," all in the name of "ordered liberty," of course.

Remember, as I noted earlier on this thread, it was the closure of les ateliers nationaux [National Worshops - the equivalent of Welfare to Work] in 1848 that led to a workers' uprising.

Hmmm... I guess I really don't see "sweeping cuts in public welfare" (much as I might like to). But if there was a breakdown of public order, I suspect most TP folk would view quarantine of those sections and the 2nd Amendment as firm enough.

Incidentally, I ran across this Bonus Army yesterday, which I was unaware of. I think most TP folk (and myself--whether or not I'm TP material) would find it disgusting.

[Michael]

Right enough, but my argument was predicated on a government making sweeping cuts in public welfare, a policy they would support, and a widepread breeakdoen of public order, especially in the inner cities, as a result. That is when I see the TP supporting "firm measures," all in the name of "ordered liberty," of course.

Remember, as I noted earlier on this thread, it was the closure of les ateliers nationaux [National Worshops - the equivalent of Welfare to Work] in 1848 that led to a workers' uprising.

Hmmm... I guess I really don't see "sweeping cuts in public welfare" (much as I might like to). But if there was a breakdown of public order, I suspect most TP folk would view quarantine of those sections and the 2nd Amendment as firm enough.

Incidentally, I ran across this Bonus Army yesterday, which I was unaware of. I think most TP folk (and myself--whether or not I'm TP material) would find it disgusting.

Well, I was arguing, in my earlier post, that those who did propose succh cuts, should ask themselves, if they were ready for the likely consequences

What I said was

At what point does the withdrawal of panem et circenses lead to a breakdown of public order?

After all, as Tallyrand observed « gouverner n’a jamais été autre chose que repousser par mille subterfuges le moment où la foule vous pendra, et tout acte de gouvernement rien qu’une façon de ne pas perdre le contrôle de la population. » {governing has never been anything other than postponing by a thousand subterfuges the moment when the mob will lynch you, and every act of government is nothing but a way of not losing control of the people.]

Will the force of law, backed by bayonets, be enough to keep the underclass in check? If we want to curtail welfare spending, are we ready for a repetition of les journées de juin 1848, following the closure of les Ateliers Nationaux?. Then, the Liberals secured a victory over the Radical Republicans, but at the cost of 1,500 dead in the streets and thousands of summary executions of prisoners. The Assembly, one recalls, welcomed the surrender of the last barricade with cries of “Long Live the Republic!” What they got, inevitably, was Napoleon III; as Marx observed of this, history repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.

Nowadays, when governments depend for their legitimacy on media coverage and the cult of personality, it is pretty generally recognised that welfare cheques, drug-dealing and cheap alcohol are indispensible guarantees of the political order.

Everything else is an elaboration of that and, like you, I do not see any government grasping the nettle of welfare reform.

[CognitiveDistoibance]

Well, I was arguing, in my earlier post, that those who did propose succh cuts, should ask themselves, if they were ready for the likely consequences

OK, I follow you. Yet nevertheless, I would advocate proposing such cuts, if by asking for a mile, I might obtain an inch. And eventually obtain several hundred yards over time.

But, doubtless we'll run out of OPM before then and thus restructuring of a much more abrupt and worse sort is probable on its heels.

In any likely event, I would not wish to be a holder of muni bonds.

[Michael]

Well, I was arguing, in my earlier post, that those who did propose succh cuts, should ask themselves, if they were ready for the likely consequences

OK, I follow you. Yet nevertheless, I would advocate proposing such cuts, if by asking for a mile, I might obtain an inch. And eventually obtain several hundred yards over time.

But, doubtless we'll run out of OPM before then and thus restructuring of a much more abrupt and worse sort is probable on its heels.

In any likely event, I would not wish to be a holder of muni bonds.

No, I would not like to hold them either.

The PIGS do not have the luxury of a gradual approach, but France has been trying it, starting with pensions reform. Here, in the UK, our own programme of cuts will start to bite this year.

Governments have to worry about resistance from two quarters: the welfare-dependant underclass and its own civil service - the army of administrators and social workers, who administer the welfare state and who are highly unionised.

I am sure you can draw parallels with the US, both at State and Federal level.

We could all be in for interesting times.

[CognitiveDistoibance]

...
Governments have to worry about resistance from two quarters: the welfare-dependant underclass and its own civil service - the army of administrators and social workers, who administer the welfare state and who are highly unionised.

I am sure you can draw parallels with the US, both at State and Federal level.
...

Absolutely. The admin and social workers army has zero interest in eliminating the welfare-dependent underclass. If they did, they would become the welfare dependent underclass.

It's a nice gig. You create/breed a welfare-dependent underclass whose mindless votes you can on, and you create/breed a dependent class of civil servants who actually are counting on the continued existence and expansion of the welfare-dependent underclass.

Works great, as someone on your side of the pond observed, until you run out of OPM.

[Lucius Vorenus]

...I’m not going to trade in Capitol Hill rumors, but whether there is a secret plan or not, the US federal government is in the same position that Germany is with respect to Greece — the creditors (in this case public employee pensions) have to take a massive haircut for the numbers to add up. The delayed effect of the real estate collapse (which is still getting worse) is going to hit local revenues next year due to massive downward adjustment in tax assessments. This is the killer:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-0 ... towns.html

It’s cities, not states, that live off real estate taxes. Local government was riding the real estate boom along with everyone else but it takes a couple of years for the price collapse to work its way through tax assessments. What’s going to happen is two, three, many Harrisburg bankruptcies. The cities will collapse and the states will push them over the edge (like NY State with NYC in 1974). They’ll make a horrible example of a couple of states — California and Illinois — others will hold the line as the cities go down like ninepins...

Nearly 20% of Florida homes are vacant
Les Christie, staff writer
Friday March 18, 2011, 4:14 pm EDT
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Nearly-20-of-Florida-homes-cnnm-2507768369.html

It's not always easy to feel sorry for sunny Florida. But it just got hit with another blow.

On Thursday, the Census Bureau revealed that 18% -- or 1.6 million -- of the Sunshine State's homes are sitting vacant. That's a rise of more than 63% over the past 10 years.

Having this amount of oversupply on the market will keep home prices depressed and slow any recovery...

The inventory overhang has sent home prices plunging. The median price for homes sold in January was just $122,000, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. That was down 7% from 12 months earlier and less than half the price at the peak of the market.

Winzer thinks prices in Florida will drop even more, another 5% in 2011 and 3% in 2012. "Even after that, they're not going to rebound, they'll just sit on the bottom," he said.

Celia Chen, a housing market analyst for Moody's Analytics, is also downbeat in her forecasts for Florida. Not only will prices fall another 11%, she said, but the bottom won't hit until mid-2012, about a year later than the nation as a whole. Some metro areas won't get back to their pre-recession peaks until long after the present owners are old and gray.

She doesn't expect Naples, for example, to come all the way back until the late 2030s. Other Florida metro areas with a 20-year wait or longer include Punta Gorda, Palm Bay and North Port...

[Frodo]

Great article, LV. Thanks. Here's another quote:

The vacancy problem is more dire in Florida than in any other bubble market: In California, only 8% of units were vacant, while Nevada, the state with the nation's highest foreclosure rate, had about 14% sitting empty. Arizona had a vacancy rate of about 16%.

In Florida, the worst-hit county is Collier -- home of Naples -- with a whopping 32% of homes empty. In Sarasota County, 23% of the housing stock sits vacant, while Lee County (Cape Coral) has a 30% vacancy rate. And Miami-Dade County has a vacancy rate of about 12%.

The housing recovery will take years, perhaps many years, to complete, according to Ingo Winzer, a housing market analyst and founder of Local Market Monitor.

Not helping is the the fact that the state's rate of population growth slowed in the second half of the last decade to just 5.7%.

Florida is screwed. If the Federal government will allow a few states to go bankrupt, to scare the other states straight, I bet they'll be Arizona, Nevada and Florida, rather than California. California is in better shape and much bigger.