Financial professionals continue to be targeted

[Ehud]

Simple Minded,

I read Neil Howe years ago and his arguments have always stayed in the back of my mind. I never considered myself much of a gold bug or a fan of Ron Paul, but in my study of James Grant's the Money of the Mind I can see how these cycles of credit boom and bust have reoccurred since the nation began peeling away the discipline of the gold standard. The only difference between the S&L crises and today's is that it is exponentially larger. The only way it could have become that much larger is with further loosening of credit standards which requires an inflating of the monetary system. We are living out the consequences of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 and Nixon's breaking of the last vestige of the gold standard. What that means in reality is something we'll have to live through, but S. America has provided us with plenty of examples of financial folly. Their examples are worth studying.

Ehud,

I think Prechter is a good observer of social trends/zeitgeist, but what is the cause, and what is the effect is always arguable. I also think the Neil Howe's description of a four generational cycle, and the collective personalities of each generation area also interesting. The other multi-generational theme that comes to mind is the concept of the jubilee, of which I have only sparse knowledge.

But being the Simple Minded person that I am, I think it is easily explained by the death of personal responsibility, and the prevalence of the entitlement mentality. Two side of the same coin really. Again which is cause and which is effect? IMO, it is occurring thru out the Western Hemisphere, is it just "spoiled bratness" for lack of a better term. What is harder for wealthy parents than to instill a work ethic in their children?

When a large percentage of the population has been trained to believe in "square circles" and "free lunches," sustainability of anything is in doubt. Bank balances, credit, etc are only symptoms of the larger delusion.

Diana West's book The Death of the Adult comes to mind.

I work for AREVA, positioning yourself next to a nuclear plant is a good idea. The rural areas will remain civilized much longer than the urban areas. Zeitgeist will determine the value of a Mercedes or a Rolex more than anything else.

[Simple Minded]

Ehud,

Agreed. In a nutshell, cheap money and lack of discipline cause lots of problems. "Man seems bettter able to endure adversity than prosperity." I have read some of his works and listened to several hours of Neil Howe interviews. His verbal summaries make a lot of sense to me.

As for insulating people from the effects of their bad decisions.... we all know that score.

I screwed up the title of the book..it is The Death of the Grown Up. Very timely. Mark Steyn's observations and a quic mention of Diana West's book:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/01/28/is-n ... allowance/

If you google ferFAL you will find a running blog of one person's experiences in Argentina. When the stuff hits the fan, high population density areas will be nasty.

Which nuclear sites are you near?

[Simple Minded]

Ehud,

Any new thoughts on this topic?

People seem a little more complacent now, the calm before the third wave down storm?

[Ehud]

Just get out of debt and buy as much precious metals and precious metals stocks as you can get.

Ehud,

Any new thoughts on this topic?

People seem a little more complacent now, the calm before the third wave down storm?

[lzzrdgrrl]

Is copper a precious metal? I think I got part of a sterling silver placesetting someplace.........

[Michael]

Is copper a precious metal? I think I got part of a sterling silver placesetting someplace.........

The Romans thought so - the committe in charge of the mint wer called tresviri aere argento auro flando feriundo (The three men in charge of striking and casting copper, silver and gold [coins understood]) I just love the name and couldn't resist quoting it!

[total issues]

Is copper a precious metal? I think I got part of a sterling silver placesetting someplace.........

The Romans thought so - the committe in charge of the mint wer called tresviri aere argento auro flando feriundo (The three men in charge of striking and casting copper, silver and gold [coins understood]) I just love the name and couldn't resist quoting it!

Well no, but wiring up China and India and all those electric motors across the world is placing massive strain on supply. Mining companies are chasing new projects, but the quality of ore does not match up to established big mines such as Chuquicamata and Andina in Chile, or Bingham Canyon in the US. Some new project ore grades are as low as 0.5% Cu. I would be wary of investing, though- prices are already high. You could have a punt at junior mining project equity, but there are a lot of duff projects out there and it is not for the faint hearted.

[Ehud]

Obama joins Wisconsin's budget battle, opposing Republican anti-union bill

MADISON, WIS. - President Obama thrust himself and his political operation this week into Wisconsin's broiling budget battle, mobilizing opposition Thursday to a Republican bill that would curb public-worker benefits and planning similar protests in other state capitals.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 05494.html

Well it seems my post 13 months ago is on target. We'll have to see if the Republicans can force budget cuts deep enough into Social Security and Medicare to affect the outcome or whether it will be QE to infinity.

Simple Mind,

I think you underestimate the true breadth of the power struggle involved. Now that municipalities and state are going bankrupt (California is Greece X 4) the lack of resources going to nurture and sustain public employees (ie, the Democratic Party base) will force political parties into mutually exclusive camps. Democrats will want to protect their base by shielding them from economic realities through increasing taxes on the productive sector. Republicans will grow more and more as the party of the private sector whose purpose is to protect business and individuals from Government predations. I conclude that this situation will foster only gridlock and the path of least resistance will be the same conclusion as what has existed until now. Pile up more debt while the Fed continues to devalue.

This suits the banks just fine. The broker-dealers get to broker US Treasuries while their debts are inflated away and the middle class sees their standard of living fall steadily throughout the next decade.

So in all actuality, except for a few instances, it will be the bankers at the top of the food chain and ironically the public employees unions will be their brownshirts.

From a previous email discussion with friends:

The power struggle may have just begun. Does Obama pull a Clinton and triangulate towards the center, or does he double down and push harder? Should get even more interesting. It won't surprise me a bit to see the masks and the kid gloves come off soon.

Previously we talked about generational change, if we are seeing a repeat of the 1930s zeitgeist, Ken's take is the Bankers/Wall Streeters will be the new persecuted class and my take is the unions will be the new brown shirts.

Obama himself said that "people see me as a Rorschach Test, they project whatever they want onto me." A very good thing when times are good, a very bad thing when times are bad!

I'm sticking with my earlier assertion, candidates/presidents are merely indicators, zeitgeist is the engine of change.

Obama won MA by 26 points, Brown won by 5 on the eve of Obama's first anniversary. The late night comedy shows are now mocking Obama (Elliott Wave indicator). He has fallen from grace and the MSM that created him is starting to taste blood in the water.

As Eric Hoffer predicted in the The True Believer, the more rabid/evangelical the supporters, the more viciously they will turn on their Annointed One when proves to be only human, and they perceive him to be selling out to the old guard.

Interestingly enough, Obama himself said he "chose his friends carefully in college" to avoid being perceived as a "sell out." He understands the mindset. Obama has allied himself with some very intense people over the last two decades. People who play hardball. He has thrown more than a few of them under the bus in the last 18 months.

I know more than a few intelligent, otherwise rational people who were swept away by the zeitgeist and convinced that all that was wrong in the world was Bush's fault and the Obama would be a panacea. As the campaign hit evangelical fervor, and his supporters/MSM declared him to be a deity (another EW indicator), I observed that when "Obama gets hamstrung by the political establishment/institutional checks and balances, he will be perceived as a "sellout" by his former supporters. Voter backlash and his political opponents will be then be the least of his problems."

The MA election and his one year anniversary may have indicated that Obama's honeymoon is now over. If the less enthusiastic in the Dem party decide he doesn't have the horsepower to get the job done, they will abandon him. His more rabid. long term supporters have a lot more invested in Obama. They may decide that since "we created his presidency, we can destroy his presidency."

Politcal relationships are fragile, emotional, and ephemeral. Simple observation of history and human nature.