"The Most Consequential Blow Israel Has Sustained in the Past Decade": Turkey

[Spengler]

"The Most Consequential Blow Israel Has Sustained in the Past Decade": Turkey on the Spengler Blog


by David P. Goldman


My friends at The Tablet, a Jewish-interest webzine, are running a week-long series on Turkey's ominous shift to Islamism. The editors write:

The transformation of Turkey from close military and strategic ally to bitter public enemy may be the most consequential blow Israel has sustained in the past decade: Unlike the Second Lebanon war, Operation Cast Lead in Gaza, or last summer’s flotilla incident, the recent shift in foreign relations is not just a public relations disaster but a fundamental change in the regional order, which has turned a powerful friend into a determined enemy.

[frank]

Turkey wanted to be a part of Europe; Europe is disintegrating a little bit at the moment, because of the desaster of the banking crisis and because of european brussellain cleptocracy; we have no strong Europe now, there are two financial mentalities: the southern and eastern money printing and robbery and the northern financial sustainability; they don`t fit together; Probably we will have more nationalism, more nation state for the time to come. The European project is dead for the moment.
So, where belongs Turkey? At the moment it belongs nowhere. It behaves chaotic, that is normal. It could behave like an Ottoman empire but maybe within Turkey there are more national problems than we may imagine. And there are more problems for Turkey to the asian east and south.

I wish for good and longstanding relations and friendship between Jews and Germans,
greetings,
Frank Dethloff

[ellens]

Frank makes a good point here. Turkey wanted to be part of Europe for decades. Nowadays, being part of Europe doesn't look like the great benefit and status symbol that it once was, and in any case, the Europeans have mostly rejected Turkey's inclusion anyway.

As the result of both of these two facts, Turkey seems to be reconsidering its role in the MidEast where long-dormant Ottoman ambitions may now be resurfacing. Given that, as discussed on another thread, Israel and Turkey are the only stable and viable national states in the Near East, it isn't all that surprising that they would end up as rivals rather than friends, as the Arab states continue on their path toward disintegration. Also, Israel's long-standing ties and sympathy for the Kurds rankles the Turks, no doubt.

Israel needed its alliance with Turkey when the Arab states to its east and west were actively involved in military campaigns against Israel, and Turkey was the only potential friend in the neighborhood. Now that the Arab states themselves are falling to pieces, Israel doesn't need friends in the neighborhood, it needs accomplices who can be bought or coerced into "alliances". That is the way things have always been done in the MidEast. Forget about friendship.

[Pastaneta]

Israeli papers mention that now Greece is taking the role of Turkey in Israel... Also CNN

http://insidethemiddleeast.blogs.cnn.co ... key-cools/

[Spengler]

The trouble is that Turkey is about seven times the size of Greece, and has a real military -- the Greeks are a joke. Turkey had a thin secular elite and a mass of ignorant and impoverished peasants. The system never quite worked. Erdogan is a populist and has succeeded brilliantly, at least for the moment (I have my doubts about the viabiliity of the Turkish economy in the medium term).

[Pastaneta]

There were and still are a lot of problems inside Turkey. For instance one of the reasons Erdogan succeeded was that the entrepreneurial class which is more devoted than the old elites didn't have access to good universities for their children. I am not sure he has succeeded in solving this kind of problem.

Nationalism has always been a refuge of the failures so I am not sure how much he has succeeded...

[Frodo]

Spengler, the neocons really screwed things up.

The situation in Iraq, including the threat of civil war, which could spread instability to the neighboring countries, has spurred Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey to set aside their differences. They've come to realize that they have much to gain from working together and everything could fall apart if they work against each other. The trauma of the last twenty years is in some ways similar to how Western Europe was left after two World Wars -- after 1945, another war between Germany and France was unthinkable.

Israel loses in all of this. They liked how things were in the 1980s, with Saddam, the Saudis and Khomeni all thinking that they could be top dog and scheming against each other. Now, leaders in the region have looked in to the abyss.

I doubt that there will be a major war over the next few years. However, it is likely that Israel's strategic environment will weaken.

[ellens]

Not at all. The Saudis and the Iranians are enemies til the death of either or both (most likely outcome). Saudi Arabia has been supporting all of Israel's actions against Iran and they aren't even discrete about it. Meanwhile in Bahrain the Iranians are stirring up trouble with the majority Shiite population just as they are in Yemen and in Iraq. This is all aimed at destabilizing Saudi Arabia, in the long run, as Iran makes its play for the Arabian peninsula, as well as for control of Iraq. Turkey and Iran are natural rivals in competing for domination of the disintegrating Arab states in between their territories, most of which were, at one time or another, parts of the Persian or Turkish Empires.

People always tend to forget that there have never been independent states in the territories where Syria, Jordan and the Gulf States now lie. These territories were always parts of someone's empire. Creating independent states in places where no one has ever managed to sustain such states before is historically ludicrous, even if it weren't demographically and economically ludicrous (which it is, as well). The neocon error was in thinking that Iraqis view themselves as a nation, when clearly they don't. Neither do the Syrians, the Lebanese, the Saudis or even the Bahrainis. 60 years of independence has not created a sense of national identity in any of these places. The one Arab country that has created a modicum of national identity in this region is Jordan, due to the deftness and decency of its Hashemite rulers, and strong support from a variety of international actors. The others have not made any headway at all in 60 years.

[Frodo]

Not at all. The Saudis and the Iranians are enemies til the death of either or both (most likely outcome).

Not according to this article in Haaretz.

Saudi Arabia has been supporting all of Israel's actions against Iran and they aren't even discrete about it.

They used to. Not anymore.

Meanwhile in Bahrain the Iranians are stirring up trouble with the majority Shiite population just as they are in Yemen and in Iraq. This is all aimed at destabilizing Saudi Arabia, in the long run, as Iran makes its play for the Arabian peninsula, as well as for control of Iraq.

Again, this is how things used to be. They've cut a deal. You ought to read the article.

Turkey and Iran are natural rivals in competing for domination of the disintegrating Arab states in between their territories, most of which were, at one time or another, parts of the Persian or Turkish Empires.

You're living in the past. Turkey has moved on. Turkey is making ties to Iran.

People always tend to forget that there have never been independent states in the territories where Syria, Jordan and the Gulf States now lie. These territories were always parts of someone's empire. Creating independent states in places where no one has ever managed to sustain such states before is historically ludicrous,

Tell that to George Washington.

even if it weren't demographically and economically ludicrous (which it is, as well). The neocon error was in thinking that Iraqis view themselves as a nation, when clearly they don't. Neither do the Syrians, the Lebanese, the Saudis or even the Bahrainis. 60 years of independence has not created a sense of national identity in any of these places. The one Arab country that has created a modicum of national identity in this region is Jordan, due to the deftness and decency of its Hashemite rulers, and strong support from a variety of international actors. The others have not made any headway at all in 60 years.

It's amazing that impossible countries have lasted for so long.