According to Real Clear Politics, the average of the presidential head-to-head is tied at about 47% each (it is Obama +.2% but close enough.)  Obama’s job approval average is still between 49% and 50%.  This time in 2004, George W. Bush  had the exact same job approval average but was running almost three points ahead of John Kerry in the head-to-head.  Bush ended up winning by 2.4%.  Gerald Ford’s last two job approval ratings were 44% and 47% . He ended up getting 48% of the vote and losing by 2%.

So let’s make the unlikely assumption that nothing changes between now and election day.  We have the candidates tied and 6%-7% of the likely voter pool that claims to be undecided.  My gut tells me that the undecideds should break for Romney.  On the other hand, just over 49% of the public think that Obama is doing a good job as President.  How many of them are going to vote Romney?  Or put it this way, which do you think would be a bigger group on election day, Obama approvers who vote for Romney or Obama non-approvers who stick with the President?  I think both groups will be fairly small, but that the latter would be bigger than the former.  The head-to-head points (slightly) to a Romney win.  The job approval number points to an Obama win.

Articles by Pete Spiliakos

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