Whether Gen. David Petraeus fainted upon receiving travel orders to Afghanistan—as he did in last week’s Senate hearings—is not clear from the news reports, but President Obama managed a double-whammy by replacing Gen. Stanley McChrystal with the “king of the conservative lecture circuit,” as the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg dubbed the ambitious general.
During the past month Petraeus has addressed annual dinners of the American Enterprise Institute (which gave him the Irving Kristol Award), Commentary magazine (where he fielded softball questions from admirer Max Boot), and the Hudson Institute. He has received resounding endorsements from the commentariat at National Review and Commentary.
And he will dig himself into a hole in Afghanistan. When the enterprise collapses, Obama will say in effect, “What are you complaining about? I sent your guy in, and he screwed up!” Obama is a disaster at foreign policy and economics, but he’s still the spinmaster.
Petraeus became a hero of the American right by turning the Iraqi quagmire into what appeared to be a stalement, by putting 100,000 Sunni gunmen on the payroll of the American army in the celebrated “surge” strategy.
In other words, he did what the derivatives traders of Wall Street did during 2007: front-load the bottom-line revenues and backload the risk. America paid, organized and armed the “Sunni Awakening” to the point that Iraq now has Muslim sectarian militias with roughly equal manpower and armaments, ready to re-enact the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s on Iraqi soil as soon as the Americans leave.
One doesn’t get promoted at the Pentagon, or for that matter on Wall Street, by telling the boss to sacrifice this quarter’s results in order to address a looming disaster in the long term. Petraeus pulled the Bush administration’s chestnuts out of the fire, as well as the reputations of conservatives who signed on to the COIN (for “counterinsurgency”) strategy of turning the American military into a Peace Corps with guns.
Afghanistan is different. Hiring the locals with bags of money is far more difficult for a number of reasons. One is that there is no clear sectarian division; the Iraqi Sunnis had every incentive to take the American paychecks and stockpile weapons for the inevitable confrontation with the Iran-supported Shi’ites. In Afghanistan, tribal leaders will take American money one day and shoot at the Marines the next.
There are several reasons America can’t win the Afghan war. One is that Pakistan’s intelligence services continue to provide refuge and support for the Taliban. America is going to leave, and the Taliban will stay, and they want to keep the fundamentalist thuggery in place as an instrument against India. Threats and bribes can’t persuade Pakistan to stop. The only way to keep Pakistan in line is to terrify it, and the way to do that is to involve India in the Afghanistan campaign in a big way.
There is a way to do it, and it isn’t pleasant. My proposal last December was that a hegemonic United States do several things. First, it should invite New Delhi to increase its role in Afghanistan—which the Russians emphatically support—and make clear to Islamabad that the consequences of a shift toward radical Islam will be to leave Pakistan at the mercy of India. America would also dictate to India a conciliatory policy toward China, including an empty dance card for the Dalai Lama and consideration for Chinese interests in Nepal and Myanmar.
Second, it would persuade China to throw its Pakistani ally under the bus, in return for assurances of Indian good behavior, as well as other incentives (access to U.S. technology, for example). We would assure China that the United States will not take advantage of its troubles with the Uighurs in Xinjiang or any other Chinese ethnic minority—and that it will police such allies as Turkey with respect to such problems.
Third, America would crush Iran’s imperial ambitions in the region, both to protect American allies such as Saudi Arabia and to eliminate a potential existential threat to Pakistan, as well as remove a claim to legitimacy for radical Sunni Islamists. Finally, the country would assure Russia that matters pertaining to its “near abroad” from Ukraine to Kyrgyzstan will be given appropriate consideration.
As the Asia Times’ M.K. Bhadrahumar wrote last October that India
an do a lot to help the U.S. and NATO in such a scenario by training the militia operating under the ‘warlords’ and also providing them with weapons. In sum, without military deployment in Afghanistan, Delhi has the capacity to play a decisive role in crushing the Taliban insurgency, which is what makes the Pakistani military establishment extremely anxious in the developing political scenario on the Afghan chessboard.
The above strategy will not stabilize the region; it will turn the inherent instability of the region to America’s advantage. The keys to success is an alliance with India, the world’s largest democracy, as well as tough unilateralism in neutralizing Iran.
David P. Goldman is senior editor of First Things. His proposal can be found in Life and premature death of Pax Obamicana. Goldberg’s remark can be found in General Petraeus, King of the Conservative Lecture Circuit and Bhadrahumar’s in Pakistan warns India to ‘back off’.
Comments:
Even if this psychotic laundry list bore any real relation to world affairs, it would mean securing US interests at the cost of the very moral legitimacy of US interests.
Goldman is a hack, and I can't figure out why First Things hasn't noticed. At least his worthless remarks on music and poetry don't have the element of moral idiocy one sees here.
It would be a good idea to put some pressure to Israel in order to end the intolerable situation of the people of Gaza.
No Islam => No Islamism => No Taliban => Win! Its even a win-win, because afghan souls are also saved by following Jesus Christ and the country will be civilized in no time.
Why did Goldman ever propose this? Perhaps c) Goldman doesn't mind risking tens of millions of other lives, in defence of Israel?
We should keep in mind, that the reason that suddenly, c. 1980, much of the liberal Jewish community, say (Billy Crystal; Mike Medved; Lieberman) converted from ACLU liberalism, to an arch, militant, warlike conservatism, was probably motivated in large part, by the unstated aim of bringing the US militarily into the Middle East ... to strengthen Israel. With the American military on the ground, Israel's ally, all around Israel, it makes Israel much easier to defend. This in fact is one of the main motivations behind the classic "Neo-Con" position.
But it is time to ask Goldman and others: how many other countries have to be sacrificed, dragged into wars, for the defence of Israel?
First the US was drawn into war in the Middle East, in part to help defend Israel in part; and now India, next?
Or is it time to finally say goodby to Neo-Cons like Goldman? And move on to a saner Middle East strategy? One that does not sacrifice the whole world, for Israel.
As to India being the silver bullet in this situation, give us a break. India is already involved in substantial development work in Afghanistan and is cautiously involved with Secy. Clinton in helping with the counter-insurgency. Given the deep tensions between India and Pakistan/Afghanistan, it would be a disaster to involve India in any large way. Goldman tends to have these simple silver bullet solutions to complex issues. Petraeus and Boot are far more sophisticated in their analysis.
I'm rather pleased with the Petraeus appointment. If anyone could substantially further American interests in this part of the world, Petraeus would be the man. The question is whether the Obama administration will provide him adequate support.
Too bad that so far Obama has punted on the really serious problem in this region, Iran.
Goldman is merely following a path lain down by the founder of FIRST THINGS.
At present Israel is faced with Arab nations and Iran who have made it clear that they wish to annihilate the nation. America should be as concerned with the existential threat to Israel as we were to that of Europe before WWII.
Church of the East member, Fr. Neuhaus was concerned with the threat of Iraq to Middle East stability along with Saddam's crushing brutality. To suggest that his main interest had to with oil is absurd. He, quite understood that since WWII America had a serious obligation to deal strongly with rogue nations in the interests of world order.
Fr. Neuhaus was a student of Reinhold Niebuhr, a realistic Christian thinker, who understood that in the long run peace and order in the world come from credible deterrence that sometimes necessarily involves hard war, something assorted isolationists and pacifists have trouble understanding.
I'm afraid I'm lost, Church of the East. Such considerations are indeed obvious. The world runs on oil and to consider a rogue state cornering a majority share in the supply (in 1990 Kuwait had fallen, Saudi Arabia was iffy) unimportant is lacking in moral seriousness. Saddam Hussein showed no intention of abandoning his efforts come 2003. As to the "No Blood For Oil" chant, I've never understood it. I don't believe the chanters meant to give up transportation of all kinds, but that's implicit in the chant. The question (for the morally seriousness) was always what to do about the situation.
Like I say, I'm lost. I think you may have left a few logical steps out of your critique. Please fill us in.
We need to get out of this mess in Asia and let Asians sort themselves out. We need to concentrate on securing our own energy supplies from home developed or american continent sources.
We, the people of the United States, need to get our government back, we need to stop this imperial meddling and mischief making. For a start we should pull all our military forces out of Asia (and everywhere else), downsize the US Army to a border guard force, disband the US Air Force completely and rely for our defence on a strong Navy, supported by citizen soldiers ready to fight in genuine defence of our people but contemptuous of empire.
Let me be perfectly clear: To wage a destructive war against a nation for the sake of gaining control and access to its oil resources is a murderous and criminal enterprise. The Bush Administration engaged in such murderous criminality, and lied about it for years by claiming motives other than those involving oil in their public discourse, and by denying the oil motive when moral critics of the war raised it.
Richard John Neuhaus, for his part, served as an accomplice both to the murderous criminality, and to the lies and deceit propagated to conceal the baseness of the real motive for these actions. He was a complete hypocrite in adopting a "pro-life" mantle, when the position he enthusiastically supported in connection with the war was so obviously anti-life.
Yes, being deprived of foreign oil would indeed be profoundly serious for the United States. It does not matter; waging a war for oil remains murderous and criminal regardless. By the moral logic that you seem to be advocating, Hitler was in fact perfectly morally justified in seeking "Lebensraum" for the German people, as well as the oil resources of Romanian, the Caspian, etc. For one could make an even stronger case for the desperate dependence of the German people on these resources than for that of the American people on foreign oil.
And yet, I never hear the likes of Neuhaus, Goldman, etc., trying to argue that Hitler's national aggrandizement was morally justified. Why the blatant moral double-standard?
http://www.firstthings.com/blogs/firstthoughts/2010/06/25/pakistan-pushes-u-s-to-make-a-deal-with-the-taliban/
I am proposing a general strategic shift to an alliance with India, as opposed to maintaining balance of power between Pakistan and India. Pakistan is a failed state in the making, and its civilian government can't control its military. So I propose to ditch them and ally with India. That's not a "silver bullet." Whatever we do is going to be a hideous mess. But it is the least bad alternative.
The country should be partitioned into Pashtun and non-Pashtun areas. In the non-Pashtun area we locate secure permanent bases. In the Pashtun area, we back off from military operations and interfere with arms, money and drone attacks as necessary to destabilize local groups who do not respect our limited security interests and support local groups who will respect our interests.



Probably the only winning strategy in Afghanistan, is not to try to take the whole country. But take over a province or two or more, on a permanent basis; as their local American warlord. Maintaining a few valuable bases in-country.