The brinksmanship in Washington over the federal debt ceiling caused me to think about our current difficulties. By and large liberals see in the present crisis images of dolorous unemployment lines and want more government spending; conservatives see a bankrupt banana republic and want cuts in spending. Whose vision is clearest?
The liberals have history on their side. The 1930s gave us pictures of men waiting at factory gates, groups idling on street corners, and tent cities of transients despairing of ever finding work. Unemployment—and with unemployment the threat of destitution, abject poverty, and angry rebellion—emerged as the dark, threatening motif of the era.
Those unemployed men could easily be given a hammer or sickle, as the upsurge in socialist and communist ideology in the 1930s demonstrated. Or they could put on the brown shirt of a fascist. Unemployed men in working class neighborhoods were the dry tinder of revolution.
As James Kurth points out in a lucid and insightful comparison of economic crises over the last hundred or so years (A Tale of Four Crises: The Politics of Great Depressions and Recessions, Orbis, Summer 2011), to a large extent the New Deal policies of the 1930s, whatever their economic value, were directly keyed to the social and political threats of unemployment. They amounted to a substantial revision of the social contract in America, interposing the federal government into the give-and-take of private economic relations, both as the (supposedly) disinterested coordinator (regulator) of competing interests, and as the reliable spender of last resort.
For the most part liberals today want to deal with the economic crisis by doubling down on government. It’s an entirely understandable political judgment. Work is fundamental to human dignity, as well as economic growth. And for most of us work is the source of our incomes, and thus our financial wellbeing, which is no small thing. So why not more spending to stimulate the economy?
But many of the political and cultural victories of liberalism have made employment less politically, socially, and culturally important than it was in the early decades of the twentieth century. As a result, today’s crisis isn’t the same as earlier ones.
Most importantly, unemployment is no longer a synonym for destitution. Unemployment insurance softens the blow. Welfare programs put a floor on how far one can fall. The entrance of women into the workforce over the last half-century means that many households now no longer depend on a single income. Unemployment is a terrible blow, but it’s not nearly as likely to be financially fatal as it was in 1932.
Then there are more subtle changes. In the earlier decades of the century, industrialization was highly focused: steel in Pittsburgh, textiles in New England, cars in Detroit. Moreover, plants employed great numbers of workers who lived in concentrated neighborhoods near their workplaces. Ethnic ties, ward bosses, and union organizers could transform despair into political anger.
Today, unemployment is often suburban and dispersed, largely lacking in the conditions for becoming an organized political force. Neighborhoods are not organized around workplaces anymore, and strong traditions of union membership and white collar presumptions of life-time tenure at a single employer have given way to a much more fluid approach to the way we earn our livings. In America today, animal rights activists and anti-globalization groups are far more likely to take to the streets than unemployed workers.
Unemployment remains a personal tragedy and a crippling economic experience. It is something families suffer, often acutely, but it has not yet threatened to reshape public life as it did in the 1930s. That may change if the crisis deepens, but I think not, again, precisely because of the successes of liberalism. The modern welfare state functions as a collective savings bank or insurance policy. If we add the indirect subsidies of the welfare state such as tax-favored retirement savings and home ownership, then a very comprehensive system comes into view, one that embeds the traumas of unemployment in the larger, collective system.
As a result, it’s the bankruptcy of the larger system—one in which government plays a central role—that now threatens us. Liberalism put the financial muscle of government at the center of economic life. This implicates government in the crisis we are now experiencing, as anxiety in financial markets about problems in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and other potentially insolvent governments suggests.
This crisis of sovereign debt has only been contained by the supremely credit-worthy reputations of the United States and German governments. Not surprisingly, therefore, it was this reputation—put simply the capacity of the United States to sustain its current trajectory of taxing, borrowing, and spending—that is now being heatedly debated. And in this debate American liberals fail to see that 2011 is not 1932. We can’t expand the already expanded state to deal with a crisis in which the financial role of the state itself—it’s capacity to tax, borrow, and spend in a way that promotes economic growth—is at the center.
The 1930s saw a crisis of capitalism, one that called for rescue by government. Are we now experiencing a crisis of government? It’s overreach? It’s profligacy?
I’m no libertarian. St. Paul was clear that government is ordained by God, and St. Thomas helps us see that a robust public sphere protects us from the consequences of our sinfulness, as well as helping us achieve the goods only possible in community. However, as Yuval Levin recently argued in National Affairs, at this juncture of history, if we care about preserving the goods of government, then we need to recognize the limits of government—and we need to gather the political will to impose those limits.
After he was invited to speak at Catholic University last spring, Catholic academics wrote a letter denouncing John Boehner’s efforts to reign in government spending. Perhaps Boehner’s ideas about tax policies are mistaken. Perhaps his spending priorities are misguided. Perhaps everything about the Republican Party’s economic analysis misses the mark. Prudent, reasonable people can disagree. But the Catholic academics who signed the letter failed to recognize that an insolvent government, however large and well meaning, can do very little good for it’s citizens. Today that’s not an insignificant danger.
R.R. Reno is Editor of First Things. He is the general editor of the Brazos Theological Commentary on the Bible and author of the volume on Genesis. His previous “On the Square” articles can be found here.
RESOURCES
James Kurth, A Tale of Four Crises
Yuval Levin, Beyond the Welfare State
Comments:
FDR was a Progressive: he believed that the role of government is to perfect the polity. Classic liberals do not believe that; they believe in a society based in individual freedom.
I believe that our Constitution was divinely inspired. Many of us "average Americans" still believe as citizens (as well as Christians or Jews) the motto: IN GOD WE TRUST.
I cannot believe that God wants us to tolerate a progressive government, one that seeks to smother our freedom of choice. I do not want the progressives to tell me what is right and what is wrong.
At this point we have bigger worries. That one of the major parties is now on record as being wiling to inflict damage on the nation in order to get its way on taxes has undermined both the nation's and the world's confidence in the US government. We'll be paying for that.
Both government and markets are blunt instruments, and with globalization, the opportunity arises further for owners of capital to exploit cheap labor, as Rachel notes. However, human nature means that big labor also pursues its own interest at the expense of other interests, including the public interest, as the auto workers unions and now public employee unions have have shown. This is a persistent problem in Europe - many workers enjoy a lot of protections, at the expense of others outside the established job market (see the recent Economist article on "Turning Japanese"). If we want growth, ultimately, the market will win out, whether we like it or not, and the alternative - a state-run economy, is not a pleasant one either. Hence, an informed consensus is needed about the balance of big complex forces - role of government, role of markets, exposure to globalization. This is very challenging for a big, diverse country such as the USA to forge.
Unfortunately (and this is not a topic that is normally accepted among the economists I work with) I believe that the very divisive social issues in our country have a spillover to the economic front. People on the left who suspend disbelief on the value of human life and then advocate high taxes and big federal programs have zero credibility with those who continue to respect human life and traditional values. And vice versa. This debate is the real one, unfortunately, and will continue to play out in the drama about the role of the state. While groups like the Tea Party continue to say they are all about fiscal conservatism, not social conservatism, no one on the left believes this, as they are seen as part of the same (often southern) culture that spawns the religious right and strikes such fear into the hearts of cosmopolitan left leaning people. On the left, there is tremendous faith in politicians and bureaucrats to get policies right, to fine-tune the big blunt instrument of government and government regulation - a faith that on the right is seen as ludicrous. Catholics are traditionally a swing group here, as they have often extrapolated Catholic social teaching to the welfare state and pro-unionism. But, they are uneasy with the left wing social agenda that tends to come with big government.
Ideally, we would regain some consensus in this country about core issues such as the value of human life and the responsibilities of people, communities, and governments, balancing material and spirtual imperatives, and then forge a public policy that supports these core values. But, of course, this will not happen in the current crisis, so we will not get optimal policies. Perhaps our only hope over the long run is to reach a shared vision of American values.
Oh please. You seriously think that S&P wouldn't have dropped the bond rating if Obama had just gotten his way and raised taxes? And what do you think that would have done to businesses that are already fearful of this Administration?
And here is the exact language from S&P regarding the real threat to our financial well-being:
“The plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.”
Fun time is over. Entitlements have to be drastically reformed.
Chart:
http://www.heritage.org/budgetchartbook/runaway-spending-tax-revenue
You say: "The government is not insolvent....".
I don't know if you have been following the economic figures over the last decade or so, because that statement is totally incorrect. If government is unable to meet future obligations based upon promissory notes already signed now, that is the very definition of insolvency. This is the case as we speak with social security and Medicare. There simply is no feasible way to continue funding them at present levels of growth without either cutting benefits for everyone, or raising taxes or both.
If what you meant was that government cannot be insolvent because it has unlimited capacity to sustain current spending by raising taxes, then again you would be wrong, at least historically. Choosing between the devil of higher taxes and the deep blue sea of spending cuts will continue to be the bone of contention between both political parties for the forseeable future, but whatever the case, it is a safe bet that the US in 2020 will be a completely different country from today
First, let me say that, like you, I am dismayed by the exportation of jobs to places like Mexico and China (which has embraced a form of state capitalism) from this country, an exportation that was encouraged by politicians such as Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. They seem to believe in a "new world order," in a global economy overseen by the UN and in a global government, from which there would be no escape.
Anyway, you speak in abstractions. Capitalism is an economic system; workers are individual human beings, most of whom do not wish to belong to a union. I assume, then, that you refer to capitalists, those who adhere to the capitalist system? In what sense should a capitalist be loyal to a worker? In what sense should Jane Boss be loyal to Joe Worker?
Yes something has to be done, long term, about the debt. That's common ground. And yes that will require looking at entitlement programs. That too is common ground. But any serious reform will include increased revenue as well. That the Republican leadership was unable to negotiate in good faith on that point out of fear of the Tea Party is clear. That the same wing of the GOP openly threatened to push the country into default on that issue is clear. That even when it came down a crisis point the leading GOP presidential candidates opposed the only plan on the table to prevent a default was explicit. These things do not inspire confidence.
Big government equals a big den of thieves, to paraphrase Augustine.
Actual revenue increases (and history proves it) are the product of economic growth, the product of a rising GDP and people getting private-sector jobs--not tax increases. So the important question, always, is how do we encourage economic growth? It's not by raising tax rates. It's not by funneling more money into government projects. Liberal politicians know this, and they don't care. Their goal is not revenue--it's political power--and that political power comes from creating more federal dependents, rich and poor. If you want to find an honest politician, find one that not only says they want smaller government, but acts that way in practice. There are very few. None on the Left. Reagan's tax cuts energized the economy, and increased federal revenue dramatically, but Congress was able to increase spending even faster. Presidents get too much credit and too much blame for tax policy and its effects. It's really the work, or the dereliction, of Congress. Presidents can only nudge one way or the other.
If the government were insolvent, people fleeing the stock market today wouldn't be going into treasury bills.
The United States was downgraded from AAA to AA. Here is S&P's explanation of those two ratings:
AAA: An obligor rated 'AAA' has extremely strong capacity to meet its financial commitments. 'AAA' is the highest issuer credit rating assigned by Standard & Poor's.
AA: An obligor rated 'AA' has very strong capacity to meet its financial commitments. It differs from the highest-rated obligors only to a small degree.
If the government were insolvent, it would deserve a rating far below AA.
The current "crisis" is manufactured. Medicare is projected to become insolvent in around 2024. In 2037, if things continue, Social Security will be unable to pay full benefits.
You say: "Liberal politicians know this, and they don't care. Their goal is not revenue--it's political power--and that political power comes from creating more federal dependents, rich and poor."
This is an argument on a par with the one that the Catholic Church opposes abortion because it wants more members. Liberals and conservatives have very different political philosophies. If the right declares the left of bad faith, or the left accuses the right of bad faith, there is no hope of problems being solved. I say this as a liberal who is having a very hard time at the moment *not* slipping into the mindset that Republicans (and particularly the Tea Party) care nothing about the country and are just trying to do whatever damage they can in the hopes that it will be blamed on Obama. But that kind of thinking will only make matters worse. At least allow the possibility that the people you disagree with are in error but not acting in bad faith with evil ulterior motives.
I pose the question that way not to jeer, but to note that invoking noble principles does not get us past constraints that cannot be ignored.
Unless you get sick. One serious illness or injury can bankrupt you these days, even if you have health insurance. If you don't, well...
I agree that the government is not currently insolvent, going by the technical definition of insolvency, nor is it likely to be anytime soon, because there is too much riding on the government's ability to honor its obligations. (I also agreed with John McCain when he said in 2008 during the financial crisis, that the "fundamentals of our economy are strong". We all know where that assessment got him).
However that is too narrow a view of insolvency as it relates to the average man on the street, who will be the ones that will be most affected, so we have to consider it from his perspective, since the effect will be the same as a full-blown insolvency. Even without being insolvent, by the year 2020, the US economy will meet almost every other yardstick of insolvency.
Why 2020? Because this will be around the time when baby boomer retirement will peak, and the bills will become fully due for social security and medicare as the older members of that generation begin to require more expensive care. These figures are already known. What is unknown right now is the full extent of other government's obligations, especially over the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which have already been incurred, but which will be paid over time. (To use the unfortunate example of the 22 Navy SEALS who died over the weekend in Afghanistan, the government pays out $11 million immediately to their families in death benefits, and over the rest of the lifetimes of their spouses and children, at least another $100 or more million to cover spousal benefits, healthcare and tuition - these figures are not known yet).
What yardsticks will be met? Unknown to most people who believe in government benevolence, governments have a very potent and highly effective tool to avoid insolvency. This is by confiscating the assets of its citizens by printing money. This process ensures that the government pays its bills, but creates inflation, sometimes even hyperinflation. It has been successfully used in many African and Latin American economies at the behest of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Technically many of those countries avoided insolvency, but the populations paid dearly for the profligacy of the ruling class. Economic growth was wiped out, unemployment shot through the roof, social welfare and entitlement programs were drastically cut or eliminated and prices of goods skyrocketed, resulting in food riots. Beginning to sound familiar?
You complain about the billions of dollars in remittances back home by immigrants, who "have a home and family to go back to when things turn sour".
Your opinion reminds me of the story of Sandra Laing, the daughter of white parents in South Africa during apartheid in the 60s and 70s. As a teenager, she gave up all the opportunities afforded to her by her privileged background, broke up with her parents and eloped with a black man to live in the poverty-ridden black homesteads. When things go wrong he turns against her, becomes physically abusive and blames her for all his woes, telling her that "afterall you can always go back home, but I have nowhere to go".
However, I disagree with the analysis of the issue. The issue is not insolvency of big government vs. a smaller government. The issue is whether we as a nation (or our governing power brokers) will balance our accounts on the backs of the poorer and elderly (like Mr. Ryan's budget plan does) by cutting social programs, or on the backs of those who have more money by increasing taxes on those who can afford them.
Will we be a nation that invests in its future and the well-being of its citizens, or a nation which lends the markets and moneymakers even more power and lets them determine the well-being of our citizens?
As you say, history is on the side of those who bank on the common good being in the hands of just government, not gambling on the free market.
Bingo. Paying off your debts by printing money until your currency is a bad joke is virtual default. As far as your creditors and citizens are concerned, it is also theft.
As far as liberal vs. conservative goes, I think they each have a part of an honest effort to deal with our problems. The liberals are right: we have to raise revenues through increased taxation, expecially on groups that are conspicuously undertaxed, like the rich. The conservatives are right: we must cut expenditures deeply enough and long enough to effect a real amelioration of our massive obligations.
Problems abound even with these two parts of a large and multifarious puzzle. For one, people do not trust their leadership to spend increased revenue wisely, for very good reason, and for another, cutting spending will hurt if it is widely and deeply applied. I am not a prophet or economist, but I can't imagine a way out that doesn't involve sacrifice and discipline. I just don't know if we're up to it.
I am sure of this: if we don't minimize blame laying and the "not in my back yard" syndrome, we are in for a rough time. If we are sufficiently truculent and stupid we can have real ugliness. The nightmare scenario is a country that dissolves into a many sided civil war. The prospect is so horrible that it blights even the imagination. I trust American decency enough to doubt that worse will come to worst.
I think we will muddle through this and be a better country at the end. That, at least, is my prayer.
Best,
Richard
Certainly modern government as well as churches and family members must help worthy poor including widows and orphans; however much of the present poverty in America stems from loose divorce law and sexual morals that result in single mothers raising families abandoned by callous men.
Truth to be told, the main reason for our presently parlous condition is a result of Rock and Roll morality and Christian churches that for the most part have caved to secularism. WW's I and II were merely a prelude to our present social and political Armageddon.
First Things is a marvelous antidote to all of this, though unfortunately it is whistling past the graveyard.
No one regards insolvency as the only sign of debt problems, but to say the United States is insolvent when it is not is a false statement.
In the spirit of "shared sacrifice" that encourages liberals to increase taxes on the "rich", let me suggest a TEN PERCENT CUT in the salaries, pensions and disability incomes of the civilian employees of the Fed. Govt, excluding those such as the FBI and Secret Service whose function requires a high standard of physical fitness and carrying arms; and excluding judges who by the Constitution are not to have their pay reduced during their time in the judiciary.
The ten percent reduction would roughly compensate the rest of us for the ten percent unemployment that we have - a risk that federal employees do not share.
TeaPot562
Rachel comments, or rather laments the evils of capitalism. Her premise is wrong if she is speaking about the present monetary system of America. We do not live in a capitalist society! That has long since been dead. Its official death was in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve, a cartel of private bankers that now had the power to issue money away from a commodity standard and with debt attached to it. The system we have today, the America today, is a Corprofascist State, where a small group of giants in any industry use the vehicle of government to impose self written regs, punish/push out competitors, and make entry into the market so expensive and time consuming that new companies rarely emerge to outcompete the mega, multinational corporations. To phrase it another way, what is the merger of state and corporate powers? Answer, Fascism. What system do we have in America? Answer, that one.
If our Federal Goverment was forced to live within the confines of the limits of taxation for revenue we would not have a government problem of this magnitude. But instead we have a Central Bank that allows Leviathon to grow at will. But the growth of the federal government comes with a high price. It widens the gap between the haves and have nots and erodes the value of the currency through inflation which crushes the poor as what little money they have has its value destroyed.
Our Federal Goverment has been the slave of the banksters, the money masters for almost 100 years now. And over that time we have had endless war and welfare, boom and bust, and 97% erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar. All made possible by the Corprofascist, money destroying, federal government enabling Central Bank. Remember...
The love of money is the root of all evil...
No connection to government, whatsoever.
In Plato's Republic, the guardians assumed power upon the age of thirty, or thereabouts. As someone in his thirties approaching the age of governance -- i.e., it's up to us to preserve the republic, our elders are slipping out of their prime, are we ready? -- I can appreciate the non-partisan diagnosis by Sen. Rubio (age 40) even while he openly advocates partisan solutions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_68GjR6V6zI
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/program/RubioR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-nj2H7ALzg
We all need Rubio's approach. Those of us who are beginning to feel our responsibility keenly -- despite "Generation X" never being a key demographic between boomers and millennials -- are lying awake nights and are consumed during the day by this awesome moral trust fund from to which we will soon be asked to add to and of which we will soon become custodians.
In other words, the parties and their posturing do not interest us. The parties play a role in our politics whether George Washington liked them or not, so they will be around. But politicians will consign themselves to oblivion if they do not find a way to transcend the hand-to-hand quarreling and behave strategically.
Thank you for the sobering pep-rally in the key of Rubio.
(P.S. Please change "reign in" to "rein in" in the final paragraph in your next edit.)
From out of Argentina, the spectre of "Que Se Vayan Todos" - They must all go - is beginning to seriously haunt the ruling class.
Talleyrand was right, when he said "governing has never been anything other than postponing by a thousand subterfuges the moment when the mob will hang you from the lamp post, and every act of government is nothing but a way of not losing control of the people."



These are big differences, but it does no good to mis-represent what the differences are.