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R.R. Reno

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The End of Social Democracy

The current Eurozone crisis may end up as a defining moment in post-War European, and indeed American, history. Most of my leftist friends regarded the financial crisis of 2008 as a “market failure” that vindicated their views about the evils of capitalism. The debt crisis in Europe offers no such consolations to modern liberals, who may now be facing their Waterloo.

R.R. Reno That’s because it is very hard to ignore that the Eurozone crisis concerns sovereign debt. Greek bonds have become toxic because of decades of political decisions. Spanish, Portuguese, and Italian bonds may go the same way, and for the same reasons. It is important, therefore, to understand these political decisions, for they have not only created problems in Europe but also here in the United States as well. They can be summed up with a single term: social democracy. Thus at the end of this decade we may find ourselves looking back and summing it up with a single phrase: the end of social democracy.

After the traumas on the Great Depression and World War II, the great imperative in the West was stability. This was perhaps clearest in Italy and Germany, the former Axis countries where, with strong encouragement from the victorious Americans, leaders emerged who were committed to brokering a new social contract that combined the openness of free market capitalism with the encompassing and egalitarian concern for social welfare that made socialism attractive to many.

Fans of Ayn Rand and Friedrich Hayek will certainly decry this system, but I find myself marveling at its achievements. Social democracy’s most important accomplishment was that it made ordinary workers indifferent to the appeals of communist organizers by spreading the wealth of modern industrial society.

Social democracy was and remains organized around the singular goal of creating and sustaining a large and satisfied middle class. This paid dividends when the threat was Soviet dominated communism, but even then there was a management fee, as it were.

Markets provide crucial information. An open employment market would give me accurate information about job opportunities and compensation, allowing me to make choices accordingly. Social democracy has always muted these market signals, using regulations, subsidies, and taxation as it must in order to create the conditions for a large middle class.

Stability is also threatened by the ups and downs of the business cycle. Modern governments organized along the lines of a social democracy adopted large-scale economic policies to meet this threat. The first were Keynesian strategies of stimulus spending to mute these cyclical extremes. Then after the groundbreaking work of Milton Friedman monetary strategies were added to the tool kit and are now used to achieve much the same goal.

Economists argue back and forth about the merits of these macroeconomic strategies, and I don’t have enough expertise to even have an opinion. But one aspect is clear. Both Keynesian and monetary policies have effects similar to regulation, subsidy, and taxation. They mute and distort market signals. For example, the market says that ten year Treasury notes are worth buying if they pay 3 percent interest. Once the Fed gets done injecting billions and billions of dollars into the financial system, the market buys them if they pay 2 percent.

Many commentators have pointed out that exactly these distorted market signals led many Americans to over-invest in the housing market, pushing up prices and creating the bubble that eventually burst. What goes unnoticed is the far greater and far more important effects of this distortion, which as I’ve argued in intrinsic to social democracy.

How important is it for me to work? How much? How long? Where should I live? What kind of training should I seek? Should I get married and have children? It is absurd to imagine that markets signals dictate our answers to these questions. But it is equally absurd to imagine that market signals are irrelevant. And this is at the root of the crisis we face today. The simple fact is that the goal of social democracy—stability in and through policies designed to create and protect middle class life—has for a long time insulated most citizens in Western nations from economic reality.

The most obvious example is globalization. New York is full of very wealthy men and women who work in finance, media, and other new economy jobs. They are exquisitely sensitive to the opportunities presented by globalization. Dearborn, Michigan? Youngstown, Ohio? Decades of policies that are too multifaceted and interlocking to admit of analysis much less summary have been deployed by well-meaning politicians and economic experts to protect them from exactly the market signals that make hedge fund managers rich.

I could give countless other examples, and they point to the same conclusion. The success of social democracy—it really has secured a high degree of social stability organized around middle class life—comes at a price that we are about to pay. After decades of protection the vital center of social democracy is now ill equipped to deal with economic pressures that we are faced with.

The last three decades have exacerbated this problem. Western European and American leaders have largely been organizing economic policies around the goal of exposing just enough of us to market pressures to take advantage of globalization so as to have a pot of wealth to draw upon to subsidize middle class life.

The sovereign debt crisis suggests that this strategy cannot be sustained. Some think we can kick the can down the road by raising taxes on the rich, but eventually the crisis of government debt will require the middle class to pay down government debt, which can be done either by way of taxation, inflation, or default, all of which are ways of harvesting wealth from the middle class.

Our political leaders will find this very hard to do, because it amounts to breaking the post-War social contract. The purpose of social democracy is to protect the middle class, not to burden them. Indeed, the middle class in the West is already profoundly burdened by the economic pressures of globalization. Making them pay for past decades of protection may in fact destroy the middle class, or at least so fatally wound it as to fundamentally change the social character of Western democracies.

I am no more eager to face this future than are the (mostly) honorable but anxious and increasingly disarmed European and American politicians. But I’m afraid you and I must. For the paradoxical legacy of social democracy—its efforts to protect middle class life for the sake of social stability—is the root of our problems today.

R.R. Reno is Editor of First Things. He is the general editor of the Brazos Theological Commentary on the Bible and author of the volume on Genesis. His previous “On the Square” articles can be found here.

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Comments:

11.21.2011 | 1:19am
Michael PS says:
Yet it is Germany, which most enthusiastically embraced social democracy, that remains the strongest of the European economies, even after absorbing the ruined economy of the GDR, as well as many communities of German descent from the Ostlands.
11.21.2011 | 3:23am
edmond says:
Sir, I think your leftist friends are biting their nails as they watch china outdo western capitalism while remaining communist. Then we can safely shrug off the labels and say communism and capitalism are really the same animal with two heads ,each opposing "ideologies". China also now seeks to reduce poverty by re-distributing wealth to the proletariat in the rural areas and moving them up to urban cities. Today, some of the proletariat have motorcycles, celphones and a small flat. Sound familiar?
11.21.2011 | 6:20am
HT says:
Thanks for coming out and saying it, Rusty. What the contemporary Right wants (or at least pretends to recognize ruefully as a quasi-Hegelian "historical necessity") is Total Instability for families. That's what the Culture of Life and the cult of the family is now preaching: you and your children and your parents can expect no inherent stability from the Gods of capitalism. Live with it. That's the price of receiving those precious "market signals". The closet libertarianism that undergirds all Rightist thinking about economics has declared that Instability Is Good For You. (In spite of all of nature's counterindications.)

Think about what all those people who brought the Wall down wanted. Did they want capitalism red in tooth and claw, or did they want West German wirtshaftswunderlich social democracy? The answer is clear.
11.21.2011 | 7:42am
FrCarl says:
Rusty,

I usually agree with you, but it appears that you are celebrating and bemoaning the sucess and failure of "social democracy" without acually touching on the reasons for the same - paying for the benefits of today with the promises of tomorrow. This simple concept of deferring difficult choices is a useful coping mechanism for the "short term", but as an indefinite strategy, leads to the entirely foreseeable extant circumstances.
11.21.2011 | 7:48am
Randy says:
America has a political doctrine that precludes it from becoming socialist, just like the Roman Catholic Church has a religious doctrine that precludes it from becoming a lay democracy, and in both cases the institutions have suffered greatly from poor catechesis. Citizens have to understand that nearly every political decision has long term social and economic consequences. Free lunches still don't exist anywhere. God's grace and a mother's love is free. Everything else comes with a bill...sooner or later.
11.21.2011 | 8:13am
AKO Army says:
"Where should I live? What kind of training should I seek? Should I get married and have children? It is absurd to imagine that markets signals dictate our answers to these questions."

In relation to the entire universe our lives are very small. And yet our relationship to the world around us is the most important thing we have. How we choose to live our lives, what we choose to leave behind, the choices we make impact the world and all around us. The markets may not dictate the answer to the questions above, but they certainly impact them.
11.21.2011 | 9:34am
Dave Eden says:
edmond: China is not out doing western capitalism. China's growth is simply the result of millions of people slowly being allowed to participate in markets, to work and create wealth. The economic growth China is seeing is coming from people participating in a market economy that happens to have communists manipulating things here and there. To paraphrase Milton Friedman, the fall of Soviet Communism wasn't a victory of capitalism over socialism, it was a victory of 50% socialism over 100% socialism. The political leaders in China are very smart, smart enough to lever back on socialism to something less than 100%. As long as the inequalities don't boil over into civil war, China has vast untapped reserves of human potential in the oppressed rural masses. By slowly letting those souls participate in a market economy of sorts, the country can achieve impressive growth. In the West, we are at the moment kind of tapped out. We're starting to really feel the cost of 50% socialism, and we don't have reserves of people who can be liberated from pre-industrial bondage to create economic growth relatively easily.
11.21.2011 | 9:40am
The middle class today in America realize litte benefit from the tax burden they bear. During the Cold War at least they could feel good about their taxes for the benefit of a strong military protecting them and their children from godless communism.

But it's become abundantly clear that the War on Terror doesn't operate like the battles of the past. And social democracy benefits the single mothers and retirees, not the young, healthy, religious families making investments for the future. So now you have the Tea Party, which is rage against taxation but also rage against the fact that the future belongs to single mothers and retirees.

So, as HT says above, the Right preaches Instability as a virtue. They tell each other and their children to get ready for poverty, religious persecution, and bloodshed. They buy seeds and ammunition and pray.

In the old days they probably would have just moved West. Today it's the call to leaven the world and engage it. We've run out of running room.
11.21.2011 | 9:57am
Joe Z says:
@HT, I think it is pretty clear that Reno's point is not to praise instability as a good, but to point out that the insulation of the citizenry from economic processes can't last forever - there's no permanent buffer. Moreover, when that buffer has become part of the social contract, the conditions it made possible will not be given up easily.
11.21.2011 | 10:31am
sallyr says:
It will be interesting to see if a representative democracy can in fact impose burdens on the majority of the electorate in order to pay for past mistakes (rather than for some future good like winning a war or achieving some good like building a railroad or electrifying the country).

If the "super-committee" is any indication, it looks unlikely that politicians are either willing to pay a political price or capable of seriously confronting these problems. Can anyone recall our leaders ever succeeding at addressing such a complex and painful set of problems in the past? I cannot. Even the Great Depression looks straight-forward in comparison.
11.21.2011 | 11:10am
Michael PS says:
Sallyr

Here is a very telling little anecdote: after the Liberation, Michel Debré at first supported the Democratic and Socialist Union of the Resistance, but defected to the Radical-Socialist Party on the advice of General de Gaulle, who reportedly told him and several other politicians, including Jacques Chaban-Delmas, « Allez au parti radical. C'est là que vous trouverez les derniers vestiges du sens de l'Etat » – "Go to the radical party. It is there that you will find the last vestiges of the meaning of the state."

The centre parties everywhere lack the will to discipline the masses to their responsibilities – they have lost all « sens de l'Etat »
11.21.2011 | 12:49pm
Open24 says:
I'm not sure if looks unlikely that politicians are going confront these problems either. These are dark times indeed and the Great Depression is looking at us face to face.
11.21.2011 | 1:00pm
Stephen says:
Social democracies always end up less social and less democratic.

Paul Ryan speaks of the "opportunity society with the safety net."
11.21.2011 | 1:44pm
David Deavel says:
Germany may have the technocratic skills to manage a social democracy since they refused to enact an Obama-style "stimulus," but their fertility rate of 1.41 will catch them eventually.
11.21.2011 | 2:37pm
Torontonians says:
Canadians have done a better job than most, with sound economy born of prudent regulation, providing benefits without indulging in Greek-style fiscal irresponsibility. Here, social democracy works.

How will people in the West afford housing, medical care, education in the future, let alone a comfortable life? Will the middle class disappear into the ranks of the poor, led by an extremely rich upper class? Will their disenfranchisement lead to social upheaval in a violently cyclical economy without "safety nets"?

I'm dying to hear the libertarian/market supremacist answer.
11.21.2011 | 3:45pm
Jane says:
Thanks for this interesting article, which views the US and European crises through the same lens of social democracy. I would agree with Prof. Reno on the many overarching similarities related to the buildup of debt from unsustainable spending, largely due to entitlements (though generally, Americans and Europeans believe they have different economic models and politicians assert different causes to the crises). On both sides of the Atlantic, the postwar middle classes are now facing the same challenges of globalization. This is a topic on which Larry Summers wrote very thoughtfully in the Financial Times and elsewhere in 2007-2008, before he joined the Obama Administration, where he seems to have had no effect... How will we meet this challenge? The answer to our current problems cannot simply be about the level of public spending; it lies in the entire model, combining public policies with the way people privately organize their lives. I think this is where the left-right arguments break down. The left focuses on the distributional issues and need for fairness in the face of rising inequality while the right thinks people should take personal responsibility to organize their private lives to be ready for the rainy day. Still, for the middle class, it may seem like a decade or more of rainy days only temporarily staved off by bubbles or other fixes. But the left's solution of redistribution won't work without growth and a stream of rising revenues to tax. Hence the conundrum.
11.21.2011 | 6:14pm
John says:
All of Western Civilization including all of its religion, especially in the USA is characteristically superficial, materialistic, outward-directed and object directed.

The current civilization constitutes a form of propaganda that has driven humankind to the point of self-destruction. This is particularly evident in the USA where the military-industrial-complex is now the primary cultural influence, the values of which now permeate every fraction of the USA body-politic. As such it is quite literally a "culture" of death.

At the present time there is less and less true civilization left in the world. The truly civilizing principles are, more and more being abandoned for the sake of the "culture" of consumerism in which human beings are now everywhere participating.

The civilizing principles that allow human functioning to demonstrate the inherently moral disposition of prior unity have already been destroyed, especially as a result of the terrible course of the 20th century, and beginning with World War I. World War I and World War II were, effectively, the self-destruction of global civilization - such as it existed.

Now nothing but narcissistic consumer-"culture" remains, and the consequent human devastation.

The human world is now in a state of virtually infinite fragmentation, in which the individual feels powerless and is just thinking of him or her self as some kind of consumer -ego to be titillated and satisfied. This is especially so in the USA where the anti-"culture" of competitive individualism rules, and where the propagandized population is quite literally amusing itself to death. USA culture is now the leading edge example of the dis-topian scenarios described in both Huxley's Brave New World, and Orwell's 1984.

The global state of humankind is thus both absurd and dark.
11.21.2011 | 8:17pm
bt says:
Speaking of "a pot of wealth to draw upon" it seems that some states, like Washington, are considering legalizing marijuana so they can gain more tax revenue. I can only imagine how much more quickly this attempt to save the state would actually destroy it.
11.21.2011 | 9:09pm
Great article and responses.

One of my favorite Hayek quotes: "Put "social" before almost any noun, and the resulting phrase has no meaning."
11.21.2011 | 11:21pm
TeaPot562 says:
The drive of the "Occupy Wall Street" demonstrators to "Tax the Rich" presumably for the benefit of the 99% would have the side-effect of preventing the next Thomas Edison, Henry Ford, Bill Gates or Steve Jobs from the ability to develop his/her insight or new invention. Inventors work long hours, and venture capitalists gamble $ (mostly lose, because few new inventions really catch on!) in the hope of making a real fortune and becoming wealthy.
The poorest 5% of the USA population lives better than about 65% of the seven billion people on this earth.

The practical position of the OWS movement is that no more discoveries or inventions will occur to change our future. Since there will be no more Edisons, or Fords, or Gates’s or Jobs, the government should set policies to prevent anyone from acquiring or owning great wealth.

The Obama administration and others who think that government should control and anoint all future developments fail to understand the historical connection between private property as protected by the US Constitution, the patent laws and the success of inventors of new products in the USA. If we voters and our governments destroy the environment that allows developers of new products to become wealthy, new world-changing products will not be developed here; and our standard of living will inevitably decline toward that of the poorer nations in our world.
TeaPot562
11.22.2011 | 3:23am
edmond says:
Dave, when america transfers its factories to china because labor is, at least to date, the cheapest in the world, america is doing capitalist business with china. When Mc Donald's and KFC broke ground in beijing in the 80s there was capitalism in the form of good ol' fastfood business going on. There was distribution, production and the burgers and wings were openly sold to everybody in the chinese market. If that is not capitalism it must be some new form of communism. The mere fact that Nike, GE, Apple and microsoft have their components at least, made in china means that these companies have surrendered to offshore manufacturing. CHina is succeeding in marketing its cell phone, pc and tablet imitations (not to mention overruns) to the global community, a free market. The strategies are motivated by profit, as US revenues from china currency cannot be repatriated unless it is done in Renminbi. Tell me that there is no such thing as communist capitalism.

We have brainwashed ourselves into believing that the two economic models are mutually exclusive because we constantly stare at purist models of democracy and communism. We created the myth that the two cannot survive in the same space. Watch as the myths are blown away when china appropriates and develops technologies that leave behind the i-pads and the cruise missiles and instead creates its own brands. As for the phrase "outdoing western capitalism" china is america's biggest creditor at the moment, so who got outdone?
11.22.2011 | 9:46am
Dave Eden says:
edmond: I think our main disagreement is about the application of labels. I actually agree that describing China's system as "communist capitalism" is appropriate. Perhaps it would help to distinguish between the economic model and the political model. (I'm probably doing some wheel re-invention here because my relevant background on this issue is pragmatic and from business school, rather than from any depth in political science or political economy.) Market economies can exist under various forms of government, whether democracy, dictatorship or dictatorship of a party such as the Communist Party. There seems to be an affinity between market economies and democracy, and they are often presented as a bundled idea, but they are distinct things that need not always occur together.

Now back to what you were saying. I agree that capitalism can exist in some form under communism, as can be seen in China. Yes, it's a myth that capitalism and communism are incompatible. But communism and democracy are still incompatible. Democracy is imperfect because people are imperfect, but communism is an unqualified evil in theory and practice. To the extent that economic benefits are being created in China, it is in spite of communism. It is because the members of the communist leader class, many of whom received advanced degrees from Western universities, are allowing capitalism to exist because they see the benefits.

Regarding the separate and distinct issues of trade imbalances and outsourcing, this gets into deeper economics than I'm comfortable to comment on much. I would just caution that it can be misleading to view states as people and extrapolate arguments about who is "winning" based on a single measure such as who is the largest holder of another's debt.

Regarding technology, we shall see. The innovations seem to come from freer societies. But if Chinese firms create better technologies, good for them. They can participate in the material betterment of humanity in the same way as innovations from Japan, the US and Germany, for example.
11.22.2011 | 10:05am
Is it 'social democracy' a la nanny state or something much broader (crony patronage in the international ordering of commerce) that constitutes what ails us? "In his own document unveiled during the Nov. 18-20 trip to Benin, the pope asked all members of the church to "work and speak out in favor of an economy that cares for the poor and is resolutely opposed to an unjust order which, under the pretext of reducing poverty, has often helped to aggravate it.""
http://www.catholicregister.org/news/international/item/13384-popes-critique-of-global-economic-system-resurfaces-in-africa
FIAT fractional reserve banking predates the social reconstruction of the post-WWII era - lender of last resort to WWI social de-construction paved the way for instability and global discord, the dollar's hegemony as world reserve currency is a uniquely American "structure of sin"
11.22.2011 | 10:20am
Dave Eden "There seems to be an affinity between market economies and democracy, " er, says who?
Flourishing trade predates the nation state by millenia, human cultures proliferated by diversifying their capacities to sustain life (salt got traded for pine balsam, for instance, the one preserves food from corruption, the other preserves wounds from infection). Consider how folks practice this age old skill set in Bazaaristan:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_market_global_economy?page=full
an upstart entrepreneur evades the public authorities and goes to China to get for himself what his own government n incapable of providing - electricity! And this is happening in oil rich (yet very Dollar-corrupted) Nigeria...
11.22.2011 | 11:46am
Dave Eden says:
Clare Krishan: I agree, and that's what intended in my comment, that market economies can exist under various forms of government. I guess I should clarify that this can also include various degrees of government influence, which would cover the full spectrum from hunter gatherers to ancient empires. To trade is human, we've always done it, and we only stop when an iron fist prevents it. That FP article you linked was very good, thank you. I like FP as a less editorially regimented alternative to The Economist for international content.
11.23.2011 | 1:18am
edmond says:
Dave-"Regarding the separate and distinct issues of trade imbalances and outsourcing, this gets into deeper economics than I'm comfortable to comment on much."

Trade imbalances are only consequences of capitalist ventures or misadventures. Outsourcing is not too profound, it is still ordinary capitalism across the seas.

"The innovations seem to come from freer societies."

Please be careful with such a statement, Dave. The derivatives of wall street infamy are sad examples of such innovations.
11.23.2011 | 7:21am
Thomas says:
"[S]ocial democracy ... has for a long time insulated most citizens in Western nations from economic reality.... Decades of policies ... have been deployed ... to protect them from exactly the market signals that make hedge fund managers rich."

I think time will show that the signals that you take to be real are perverse incentives created through financial engineering or are consequences of that engineering. Hedge funds, investment banks, and political regulators have been operating within a financial environment of their own creation that attempts to overcome reality. Most citizens have not been insulated or protected from reality. Rather, they have only partially participated in the engineered unreality while bearing many consequences of it.
11.23.2011 | 8:37am
Jane says:
China's system is increasingly called "authoritarian capitalism" because it combines an authoritarian political system with the dynamic economic growth achievable only through engagement in markets (global and regional, but increasingly local as well). The good thing is that many millions of people in China have been lifted out of a degrading, dehumanizing level of poverty. The bad thing is that other countries now see this as a good alternative to the democratic capitalist model that in the previous immediate post-Cold War period was seen as the way to growth and prosperity. Fits, starts, and failures of democratic transitions by economically struggling countries with no previous democratic tradition may result in populations willing to embrace authoritarian capitalism (since in any case, most poor countries cannot afford the kinder, gentler version of social democracy, though they try to fund some aspects through development aid). People contrast the seeming order and success of China with the mess in the Middle East. And, many of these other countries do not even have the cultural attributes of China that has make authoritarian capitalism work there (at least over the past two to three decades, which is short in the history of China). For Americans, we should take this time to have a much better public debate about the role of the state in the economy and our private lives going forward. This debate should distinguish between what we want the states, local government, and the federal government to do (the subsidiary principles which are also prevalent in the formation of the EU). And it needs to factor in the reality that we are part of the global economy, which will not go away (barring some kind of catastrophic war, heaven forbid). Unfortunately, this debate is happening, but is mostly seen as just about the 2012 campaign. It should go way beyond the current political cycle into a longer range perspective, in which 2012 would be but the first step. I believe the fundamentals in our Constitution are pretty sound, and every day, we should be thankful for the democracy we have.
11.24.2011 | 5:26am
De Las Casas says:
When one reads read discussions like this, in which otherwise good people either applaud China’s rise or are neutral about it, one’s blood runs cold at the ubiquity of codependence with evil. In many cases economics is discussed with blinders on, as if any linkage to a spiritual dimension is irrelevant. When you buy a less expensive Chinese product you are strengthening an aggressive tyranny. Why give your business to criminals who use their profits to build a war machine to defeat you?

The very small elite who completely control China have personal records of inhumanity and genocide. They are the monsters of the Red Guard, now middle aged. They are at war with us. Therefore commerce with China is deeply immoral. One of many recent books that amply document China’s naked intention to conquer the USA is “Bowing to Beijing: How Barack Obama is Hastening America's Decline and Ushering A Century of Chinese Domination.”

I was told a story, perhaps just a illustrative fiction, about amoral capitalism. It was said that IBM’s Thomas J. Watson, set up an early punched card sorter to aid The Third Reich management of their death camps. It was profitable.

We have fallen deeply in love with an amoral and unpatriotic capitalism at the same time we have fallen out of love with ourselves and with our God.

It is said that generals always fight the last war, especially if they have won it. Our deluded idea of what constitutes contemporary weapons of war amounts to belief in a Maginot Line. I have seen the enemy's face. He is in Walmart buying a weapon for his enemy to use against him. It is a vanity mirror made in China. The face in the mirror is mine.
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