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I think the answer is very, very, likely yes and before the Iowa Caucuses (not that he’ll drop out, just that he will have substantially lower support than now.)  There was this time during the Cain boom when he had just spent the section of a debate dealing with criticism of 9-9-9 by crouching in a fetal position and chanting “you haven’t read the analysis, you haven’t read the analysis” (rhetorically of course) and the sexual harassment stuff came out.  For a while he seemed to defy gravity.  The whole bold businessman/outsider/real conservative-being-wronged-by-the-liberal media narrative seemed to overwhelm any criticism aimed his way.  But he fade.  It just takes time for the criticism to sink in (or in some case even be heard most people aren’t focused on the race.)  Right now the “brainy, bold Newt launches miracle comeback” narrative is seeming to overwhelm any criticism.  It won’t last.  If the Iowa Caucuses were being held next week he could survive any attack on the strength of narrative and momentum.  As it is, his rivals (especially Bachmann and Romney) have the incentive to go at him and a lot of material to hit him with.  The wheel of not-Romney isn’t done spinning yet.  Or I could be wrong.

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