So Flagg Taylor of RICOCHET fame writes in response to my dissing of his very pro-Romney election prediction:
I love that I am now lumped in with Mr. Barone. The only way most of these state polls can be accurate is if the electorate looks like it did in 2008. I’m betting more like 2010. And Romney’s winning independents handily, and he’s close with women. Young people ain’t coming to the polls like they did in 08. And even if O’s margin with Blacks is the same, will they turn out in similar numbers as 08? Where are O’s margins in all of these state polls coming from?
It is possible that most polls are so wrong on their turnout models that Romney is being significantly lowballed. It’s also possible that we’re fooling ourselves if we believe that so many polls are so wrong. We’ll see. I’m hoping Flagg is right.
UPDATE: On the other hand, I go over to RICOCHET to get a heaping helping of their hope, beginning with the Paul Rahe landslide for Mitt hypothesis. Paul has a link in a thread that he says shows that Romney (according to Rasmussen) is up 5 in Michigan. Click on the link and the actual study shows Obama up 5. And I also learned that even Dick Morris is fearful that this last weekend might have been for Obama something like the last weekend in 1992 was for Clinton. So, to repeat, we really don’t know, and everyone drink some of whatever they’re drinking at RICOCHET and get out to vote.
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