Savior Fallacy

Derek Thompson analyzes the “savior fallacy” that drives many NBA teams in the Atlantic . It has several components: Mediocrity is the worst, and mediocre teams stay mediocre, so “tanking” becomes a deliberate strategy; one top draft choice can change a loser into a championship team; so, it’s best to be horrible than mediocre.

It’s wrong at every point. Mediocre teams don’t stay mediocre. Almost no team rises from the basement to the top because of a savior draft pick.  Thompson writes, “Bad teams aren’t one great player away from greatness. They’re one great player away from mediocrity. Almost every championship team going back three decades had not one but three above-average starters. . . . construction: when you bring a successful college player onto a bad pro team, it’s the reputation of the team that stays intact.”

What counts are small, incremental improvements, long-term commitment, patience, resisting the temptation to set up for the big score. Now, can anyone say Spurs?