Pete Spiliakos

1. Romney’s lead in the RCP head-to-head average is only .9% but Romney is leading by 2%-3% in five of the last six polls. The IBD/TIPP poll is an outlier. I see no reason to believe they have it right while everyone else has it wrong (I felt the same way when most polls were showing an Obama . . . . Continue Reading »

that is made up of people who went to bed early or watched Monday Night Football instead of seeing the debate (I went to bed early btw.) Did anyone see anything that will change anybody’s mind? Did anybody see anything that will get undecided voters to finally make up their minds? Here is . . . . Continue Reading »

According to Real Clear Politics, the average of the presidential head-to-head is tied at about 47% each (it is Obama +.2% but close enough.)  Obama’s job approval average is still between 49% and 50%.  This time in 2004, George W. Bush  had the exact same job approval average . . . . Continue Reading »

1. There is some good news for Romney in the coming foreign policy debate. The expectations for Romney’s performance among the political class are as low as they could be. The Libya thing ironically helps here. People are expecting the love child of Inspector Clouseau and Buck Turgidson, so . . . . Continue Reading »

1. So I was right about everything . The questions leaned farther left than would have been likely if Crowley had to take full responsibility for what was asked. Crowley spent a lot more effort interrupting Romney even though Obama was doing more talking. Crowley even intervened in the conversation . . . . Continue Reading »

I remember Mitt Romney’s town hall debate against Ted Kennedy in 1994. It seemed like most of the questions were premised on the desirability of state expansion. When one questioner asked a question that was critical of Kennedy, the other “undecided” voters hissed and groaned. . . . . Continue Reading »

As Rich Lowry points out over at National Review, Obama’s job approval is down to 48% in both the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls. His RCP job approval average is 49% which is at the low end of where he has been since the Democratic convention (though the movement has been within a very, . . . . Continue Reading »

1. Any outcome that wasn’t an unspinnable defeat was good for the Obama campaign. Ever since the first presidential debate, the Obama campaign has suffered from the media interpreting everything they do as a desperate and probably misguided attempt to deal with the consequences of . . . . Continue Reading »

Obama supporters have been whining that Romney “lied” his way to victory during the debate. It hasn’t stemmed the Romney “bounce” from the debate and that shouldn’t be a surprise. The lie gambit is lousy politics and lazy analysis. Saying that your guy lost the . . . . Continue Reading »

1. So Romney is now .7% ahead of Obama in the RCP average. By way of comparison, John Kerry (who was running to unseat an incumbent of comparable job approval ratings) never led and never got closer than 1.7% to Bush in the post convention period. Bush ended up winning the popular vote by 2.4%. . . . . Continue Reading »