Very quickly: Three new polls on RCP. All say it’s a tie. The Gallup is most encouraging in showing a Romney trend.

Romney is also up to 235 on the no-ties electoral college board. He’s escaped from the McCain box and is on the march. But it’s clearer than ever he can’t win without Ohio and might lose anyway.

If the election were over today, the most astute bet would be Romney a narrow victor in the popular vote, but a clear—if narrow—loser in the electoral vote.

Early voting might now be good for Romney, of course.

All in all, we’re back where we started before the conventions, and the ground game—together with the remaining debates—are more important than they should be. Soon the president will know whether he was right not to dump Biden.

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