1. Romney’s lead in the RCP head-to-head average is only .9% but Romney is leading by 2%-3% in five of the last six polls. The IBD/TIPP poll is an outlier. I see no reason to believe they have it right while everyone else has it wrong (I felt the same way when most polls were showing an Obama lead but Rasmussen was showing a tie or Romney lead.) So it looks like Romney is up by 2%-3%.
2. I’m not worried about the swing state polls. If Romney holds on to this lead he wins. If he doesn’t, he doesn’t. Obama is running 2.5%-4% behind his job approval ratings.
3. Obama is running 2.5%-4% behind his job approval ratings. That is a fair number of Obama-approvers who could come home. On the other hand, have we have ever had an incumbent President behind in this many polls, this late, who came back to win?
4. The foreign policy debate was a strategic defeat for Obama. the only way he could have gained from that debate was to make Romney seem scary. For better or worse, hardly anyone cares whether they think Obama will be marginally better at talking to Putin on day one. He needed to freak people out that Romney would start or extend unpopular wars. Didn’t happen. All the stuff about Obama being more “aggressive” in the debate doesn’t matter.
5. As a general rule, the more the Democrats talk about abortion in the final leg of a campaign, the more likely it is that they know they are losing. The body language of the Obama campaign is that they don’t know how to turn this story around. The good news for them is they have a willing news media that is hungry for a change-of-narrative and that wants Obama to win. All they need is a semi-plausible excuse.
6. I’m going to write a little about Caddyshack tomorrow. Any thoughts or suggestions? Keep it PG.