I agree with everything Pete says below: All the polls are tied, except Gallup and one other. Negative for Obama: His approval rating is higher than his one for handling the economy. For Romney: He’s more liked than he was, but still not that much. The “turnout model” is always questionable, and Romney is running better among “likely” voters than registered voters. Upside: The perception is now that the enthusiasm gap now favors Romney. Downside: It’s conceivable that Obama is doing better getting his guys out than the pollsters think. The Intrade suggests that it’s six chances out of ten that Obama wins. I agree, because of the electoral college challenge. But: All the polls out of Ohio in the last couple of days are also basically tied. So this is not something I would bet the farm on either way. So (again) tonight’s debate, which couldn’t possibly move more than a percent or two of the electorate, is actually quite important.
Monday, October 22, 2012, 6:15 AM