1. Romney has reached the arbitrary but psychologically significant (for me and maybe only for me) lead of 1% in then RCP average. That is his biggest lead since October 13. More importantly, Obama’s average job approval is down to 48.3%. That is the lowest his job approval has been since his bounce from the Democratic National Convention. This is a much worse sign for Obama (if it holds up) than the head-to-head.
2. The stuff about “Romnesia” ain’t getting it done. Is the median voter out there thinking “You know, I’d vote for Obama again, if he would only sound more like a snide, but dim twelve year old. ”
3. The pro-Obama videos aren’t getting any less creepy. What is interesting is that this video isn’t really about changing anyone’s mind. There are too many left-leaning in-jokes about “fixing” gays, and killing polar bears, and too much political junkie stuff about Congress going home early. That stuff is meaningless to the medium information persuadable voter. It is more a preemptive abomination of the country in the case of an Obama defeat. It is also an unconscious self-satire of the hysteria, self-righteousness, and obliviousness of some Obama supporters. Come to think of it, the video is an abomination all by itself. The only good news is that it wasn’t put out by the Obama campaign.
4. I heard some of Obama’s New Hampshire speech today. He went on a long speech about how Romney had increased user fees in Massachusetts (the horror, the horror.) That is piddling stuff by itself, but I guess it could have formed part of a a compelling story that included Mediscare and Romney’s tax cut plan and stuff. You had to hear Obama’s tone of voice to really get a sense of his performance. The scorn and hostility undermined what he was trying to get across. He isn’t acting like a man who buys Nate Sivler’s analysis. And neither do I. Though I’m still expectiing a very narrow Obama win unless his average job approval ratings stays below 49%. I just don’t think Obama’s chances are nearly as strong as Silver suggests.
October 27th, 2012 | 5:58 pm
What I struggle with most about Governor Romney and these men he endorses for high office. Is that if asked, they truly would like to end ALL abortion by legislation. And they say things like if you are raped they don’t want you to terminate the pregnancy because it is ‘God’s will’.
And these SAME people say the will repeal Obamacare because they don’t want Government in ‘their’ (tax payer paid for) health care.
It truly is maddening ignorance.
October 27th, 2012 | 6:19 pm
Chas, “Is that if asked, they truly would like to end ALL abortion by legislation.” Can you point to me where Romney came out in favor of banning abprtion in cases where the mother’s life is in danger? Then the Obama campaign would like to get their hands on that smae information. You might even make some money on the deal.
“And they say things like if you are raped they don’t want you to terminate the pregnancy because it is ‘God’s will’.” Could you point to where Romney ever made a such a theodicy-oriented argument about God’s will as related to rape? He has made the argument that the fetus is a human life that ought not be destroyed.
If you are truly worried that a Romney administration will lead to the banning of abortions in the case of rape, then you are worried about an absurdly low probablity event. The very best case medium-term pro-life scenario is the overturning of ROE and the banning of later term abortions in most states and the banning of of first trimester abortions (with rape and life of the mother-type exceptions) in a few states. I consider even this more unlikely than not by a large margin (and am not happy about it.)
If you “struggle” with voting for a party whose coalition includes many people with pro-life political commitments, then you ought to consider the alternative of voting for a party where some significant fraction of the party’s base believe that it should be legal and government subsidized to deliver the majority of a third trimester fetus and destroy that child’s brain before the delivery is complete, and do so on demand. Such practices are actually far more likely to return in the case of one more Supreme Court Justice appointed by Obama than any banning of abortions in cases of rape under any imaginable set of circumstances. It should of course be noted that abortion on demand in the second and third trimester is still legal (though the specific practice of partial birth abortion is not.)
October 27th, 2012 | 6:30 pm
This is not the behavior of a campaign that thinks it is either winning or even capable of winning. This is the behavior of a campaign trying to do nothing more than stir up its partisans, and that has completely given up on independents or undecideds. One shudders to think how nasty they’ll still get in the remaining ten days…
October 27th, 2012 | 6:42 pm
Or, conversely, its the bahavior of a campaign that has convinced itself that it can do an end around conventional campaign math:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-in-ohio-magic-gone-the-president-grinds-it-out/article/2511690
Either way, it screams desperation.
October 27th, 2012 | 10:55 pm
Counting electoral votes is all that matters, but I maintain there’s just no way to lose the popular vote by 3-4 points, as seems entirely likely, and win. It’s just not going to happen.
October 27th, 2012 | 11:27 pm
Pete, that RCP average is one I watch, too. Finally!
Job-approval-wise, Gallup now has Obama down to 46%. http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-obamas-job-approval-drops-7-points-3-days
October 28th, 2012 | 10:14 am
Carl, part of my reticence to feel really, really good about Obama’s job approval decline is a sense that Gallup is skewing the average a little. I’d like to see if the Gallup number holds up and if more polls show job approval below 49%.
October 28th, 2012 | 4:52 pm
I concur with you that the “Imagine America” video is aimed at the wrong crowd. It is aimed at the utopian socialists; and they should already be a lock for Obama. I’m not sure why someone would make this video, except they are trying to chastise Americans for voting Republican. I contend that the Democrat Party splits after the shellacking they are going to get on November 6.
October 28th, 2012 | 5:18 pm
Though the drop does correspond nicely with the Obama Campaign’s recent vulgarity offensive.
It would be ironic if it turns out that they succeed in bringing out the slacker college student vote only to alienate themselves from all the adults in the American Electorate who actually will be the ones who determine the next POTUS.
I do so love a good ironic ending.
October 28th, 2012 | 5:53 pm
The numbers are all over the map, pun intended and all…
I cannot fathom how one can augur anything at all the polls numbers the media, the campaigns, and the average person are throwing around.
Though I appreciate PoMoCon’s election year coverage on this issue- this obsession with the job approval rating is a strange fetish.
Maybe it is ugly and cynical to point out, but the job approval ratings number is precisely the sort of stat that would be OVERRATED for Obama because people are uncomfortable saying something negative about America’s first black president. It, along with personal likability polls, would be where there may be an overcompensation because of a discomfort over America’s racial problems.
If I were mistaken, wouldn’t we assume the polls should show a correlation with Democratic enthusiasm and likely voters which would mirror the job approval/likability ratings (especially this late in the game?) They simply don’t.
So even though I don’t believe Romney has this wrapped up at by any stretch; you fine PoMoCon gentlemen seem a bit reticent over the most imprecise and confounding stat being tossed our way; and it isn’t making much sense to me.
So when I hear a job approval of 49%; I, very arbitrarily and in the most unscientifically biased manner, would say the real number may be 5 to 6% lower than that. And a job approval rating in the low to mid forties (maybe even as low as the upper thirties) would not portend well for the President.
October 28th, 2012 | 7:03 pm
“but the job approval ratings number is precisely the sort of stat that would be OVERRATED for Obama because people are uncomfortable saying something negative about America’s first black president.” I wouldn’t assume that. His approval rating had fallen as low as 44% a couple of years ago and he would be toast now if his approval rating was 44%. I don’t know why 4%-5% of the electorate would start lying within the last 24 months – especially to robopolls. If Obama’s “real” job approval rating was in the low to mid 40s and with Romney not being an obvious joke candidate, you would expect a 1980-style 40 state sweep by Romney. But instead, the Electoral College map looks a lot closer than that. In fact, it looks (in its closeness if not its geographical distribution) like the elections of 1976 and 2004 when you had an incumbent president of similarly marginal approval ratings.
October 28th, 2012 | 8:08 pm
MPB, compared to his posts up until this last week, Pete’s comments above are practically giddy in their optimism for Romney. And I suppose it’s for good reason since credibility is important in his line of work. The rest of us can just come up with another lame pseudonym when our prognostications come up rediculously short.
I do agree, however, that conservatives do have a certain pessimistic mindset that perhaps makes them a little too ready to be dissapointed.
A good case in point is AEI’s (short for American Eor Institute) recent panel on the election this last week. Only Michael Barone offered the possibility of maybe Obama not winning. It’s worth watching if one has an hour of kitchen cleaning or jogging or something.
http://www.aei.org/events/2012/10/25/aei-election-watch-2012-session-6-down-to-the-wire/
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