An AP “Poll” is out that apparently finds that a plurality of people believe that Obamacare didn’t go far enough, while only 20% want the law repealed. From the story:
Voters who say the new health reform law was too conservative outnumber by 2 to 1 those supporting repeal, according to a poll released Saturday. About 40 percent of respondents said the law was too timid in overhauling the nation’s healthcare system, while 20 percent said they’d like to see it scrapped, according to the survey, commissioned by The Associated Press (AP).
Wow. That sounds serious. Why, people aren’t against the law, they actually want an even more radical overhaul than anyone understood!
But if that were true, wouldn’t Democrats be running on the plank of, “Let’s finish the job?” Instead, they are running away from their health care law as fast as their legs will take them.
Are they that politically dense? Well, close, but not that dumb. If they thought the law was a political winner, they would run on that record.
Oh wait. Ah, I see. The poll is actually an online survey, in which the survey takers apparently decided who to have answer the questions. Here’s how:
The Associated Press 2010 Health Care Reform Survey, by Stanford University with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, was conducted Aug. 31-Sept. 7, based on 1,251 adults. The national survey was conducted online by Knowledge Networks of Menlo Park, Calif., under the direction and supervision of AP’s polling unit.Knowledge Networks initially contacted people using traditional telephone and mail polling methods and followed with an online interview. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free. With a probability basis and coverage of people who otherwise couldn’t access the Internet, the Knowledge Networks online surveys are nationally representative. Results were weighted, or adjusted, to reflect the adult population by demographic factors such as age, sex, region, race and education.
Maybe that’s why it seems to be skewed blatantly toward obtaining a certain result. For example, a recent CNN Poll only gave President Obama a 42% approval, but this survey has “lean favorable” toward Obama at 57%. He hasn’t been that high in reliable polls for at least a year. Hence, I don’t think 40% of the American people really think Obamacare is too timid.
Still, I could be wrong. In fact, I urge those House and Senate members who voted for Obamacare, buck up! The poll survey is on your side! Have courage! Run on the promise of going even farther than you did last year! Run on the promise that you will have the government take over even more of health care. Please do. Pretty please?
September 26th, 2010 | 1:30 am
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Vince Humphreys, Naughty Wicked. Naughty Wicked said: AP “Poll:” Obamacare Didn't Go Far Enough! Really?: … sex, region, race and education. Maybe that's why it seems… http://bit.ly/9wi7kU [...]
September 26th, 2010 | 3:55 am
You misinterpreted the survey’s results. It shows that 37% approve of Obama’s handling of the presidency and 41% disapprove (a result which is consistent with other studies).
57% of those who are “unsure” describe themselves as leaning towards approval. The devil, as always, is in the details.
Other polls have shown results consistent with this survey. A CNN poll in March, for instance, showed that 13% of respondents opposed the legislation (which was then under consideration) because it wasn’t liberal enough. This new poll’s 40% figure includes those who support the bill but wish it went further.
And, in response to the charge that participants were pre-selected in order to produce a desired result, here’s an excerpt from the pollster’s website:
60% of survey participants disapprove of the direction in which the country is headed and 25% strongly disapprove of the Obama presidency (as opposed to 12% who strongly approve). A pre-selected group of liberal voters wouldn’t so accurately reflect the current disenchantment with this administration.
You might also consider going through the entire survey in greater detail. There is a section devoted to public perceptions of Obamacare’s specific provisions. 40% of participants believe the Act requires every American to show a government health care identification card in order to get medical care at a hospital. 39% believe that it “creates committees of people who will review the medical histories of some people and decide whether they can get medical care paid for by the federal government.” Just over a week ago, the venerable WJS, exhumed a (since retracted) falsehood about Obama and real estate tax even though said falsehood had been debunked by snopes.com(!) months earlier. One wonders whether the often touted opposition of “the American public” to Obamacare results partly from this sort of misinformation.
Then there’s the question of why Democratic congressmen seem to be distancing themselves from healthcare reform in spite of the fact that substantial numbers of people support it. Two reasons: First of all (and regardless of how one cuts it or seeks to explain it) more people oppose the legislation (and Congress’ handling of the process) than support it. Secondly there’s the issue of political fervour. To misquote Yeats: Democrats lack all conviction, while Republicans are full of passionate intensity. Liberals who support “Obamacare” generally accept it as a flawed piece of legislation which nonetheless represents an incremental step in the right direction. Many conservatives who oppose it view it as a monstrous aberration, an ideologically motivated jackboot aimed at the neck of American Liberty. “Écrasez l’infâme!” we hear them cry as they storm the citadels of power with torches blazing and their feet pounding to the rhythm of the war chant: “Repeal. Reform. Replace. Defund.”
Democratic congressmen, seeing the flames and the mob’s determination, inevitably entertain thoughts of recantation.
September 26th, 2010 | 4:00 am
Didn’t include a link to the pollster’s website. Here it is.
http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp/index.html
September 26th, 2010 | 11:27 am
Perhaps this is why Republicans plan to repeal the current health care reform bill and replace it with the current health care reform bill.
A “poll” appears to be a poll with results contrary to your beliefs. It is a common tactic to discredit a survey for technical reasons, but as Raven Chukwu convincingly demonstrated, this survey appears valid.
More from the Wyoming News you referenced: No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause results to vary more than plus or minus 3.9 percentage points from the answers that would have been obtained if all adults in the U.S. were surveyed.
Although it doesn’t fit the media narrative (the folks hate Obama because of his radical attempt to remake America), it seems illustrative to ask citizens why they are unhappy with President Obama. I, for one, AM unhappy because he hasn’t gone “far enough”. Our health care system will have to revisited until we have a streamlined single-payer system.
You are to be commended for tackling this new and troubling survey, and especially for posting Raven’s thorough rebuttal of your efforts.
September 26th, 2010 | 1:50 pm
Raven Chukwu is right on target, but like the healthcare law, he hasn’t gone far enough. I listened to Fox News the other day and they had 6 commentators discussing the healthcare reform bill. The show’s host, abetted by most of the guests, vigorously asserted the “fact” that 61% of Americans want the law repealed and shouted down the only voice that objected. Raven has already addressed this foolishness.
In the Republican’s Pledge to America they refer three times to “job-killing” Democratic legislation that they would repeal, healthcare included. Will the American people actually “buy” their argument that the Democrats want to kill jobs (and raise unemployment) so that they can get re-elected? Perhaps the Democrats are taking political risks because they have the best interests of the country at heart and aren’t simply, like the Republicans, seeking every advantage through innuendo and misrepresentation that they think might get themselves elected.
Is it possible that after 80 years of trying to get some sort of healthcare reform passed to bring America into the 21st century, Americans would want to dump it in the trash heap? The Republicans claim that they would replace it is almost silly – they made no efforts in this regard when they were in power and have done everything they can to stymie the current Administration’s efforts to bring long-range planning to bear on rising health-care costs. (And, ironically, rejected out of hand the Democratic efforts to curtail subsidies which add to Medicare Advantage costs and riciculed as “Death Panels” efforts to counsel elderly persons regarding their options beside expensive hospitalization.) Amazing! What will they come up with next?
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 26th, 2010 at 3:21 pm
John Swaney: Welcome to SHS.
I think the “poll” fails for several reasons, and I think Raven’s critique is not compelling. First, it is “adults,” which doesn’t even mean citizens much less voters. These are the least reliable. Second, if adults “chosen” to be in the poll were pre screened, that also affects the reliability. Third, I chose “leans” favorable or unfavorable to highlight because that does away with nuances. The country does not lean favorably toward Obama at this point by any other reliable poll of which I am aware, much less to a 57%. Also, the actions of the Democrats clearly indicates that their polling isn’t showing this kind of result, or as I wrote, they would be running against Republicans as impeders of completing the job the way the American people want. Bill Clinton, one of the best political minds of our times, says he was mistaken in thinking the law would become more populare.
But as I said, those who think this poll is reliable, should use it to craft their campaign strategies. I hope they do because it will increase the size of the drubbing that pro Obamacare Democrats seem likely–at least at this point–to experience. That’s why some Democrats up for reelection brag that they voted against the bill, not because it did too little but just the opposite.
September 26th, 2010 | 2:02 pm
Wesley:
Although I don’t necessarily accept the results of the poll, I’m with Raven in that its methodology appears sound. It looks like a standard random sampling of households with the actual survey conducted online instead of by mail or phone.
(I’ll admit it seems weird that they gave non-Internet-enabled households laptops and Internet access instead of mailing them a paper survey or calling them, but it’s just a longer journey to the same result.)
I know that there are some folks who are unhappy with the bill for not going far enough (they’re thick on the ground here in Madison), but it remains to be seen how many. Still, the bill looks to have made everyone mad and is increasingly looking like a very, very serious legislative blunder.
Raven:
“Democratic congressmen, seeing the flames and the mob’s determination, inevitably entertain thoughts of recantation.”
Don’t you think that this is a bit, just a bit, overwrought? Obamacare was a messy compromise forced through via sheer parliamentary weight. It’s unpopular for a variety of reasons, and the Democrats’ reluctance to stand behind the bill doesn’t need threats of Republican violence to explain it.
September 26th, 2010 | 2:39 pm
[...] [...]
September 26th, 2010 | 5:18 pm
Mum needs transplants of adult stem cells , but insurance won’t pay for them.
RX’s don’t help pain.
Help Fight those big bullies, not the tortured who must escape all the likes of them.
September 26th, 2010 | 6:43 pm
If the poll supported Wesley’s position he’d be shouting the results from the rooftops. Since it doesn’t he’s trying to debunk it. How typical.
September 26th, 2010 | 8:49 pm
This reminds me of an old sitcom bit. Kid walks into a music store and slaps a record down on the counter, and says, “I want to return this record, it’s defective.” The clerk says, “I’m very sorry. In what way is the record defective?” Kid replies, “I don’t like it.”
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 26th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
Well, if he was forced to buy it by the proprietor, perhaps he has a point.
September 26th, 2010 | 8:51 pm
“Wes”: “Bill Clinton, one of the best political minds of our times…”
Wes, somebody hacked your blog. Better change the password. The hacker’s been putting up some pretty embarrassing stuff. ;)
Wesley J. Smith Reply:
September 26th, 2010 at 10:07 pm
I have to call them as I see them, padraig. He is a brilliant politician.
September 27th, 2010 | 2:10 am
Wes: “First, it is adults, which doesn’t even mean citizens much less voters. These are the least reliable.”
One would have thought that a survey which captured the views of American adults rather than “likely voters”, while being less likely to predict the results of an election, would better represent the “will of the people”. (and, anyway, there was probably a screening question to determine if the participants were at least eligible to vote).
“Second, if adults “chosen” to be in the poll were pre screened, that also affects the reliability.”
All reliable surveys have some kind of screening to ensure that the sample derived is in fact representative of the population from which it is drawn. If the general population is 36% Democrat, pre-screening ensures that the interviewed sample has a similar proportion. “Pre-screening” ensures that the participations represent a demographically balanced cross-section of the whole country and dramatically improves the reliability of surveys such as these. There is no screening based on opinion.
“Third, I chose leans favorable or unfavorable to highlight because that does away with nuances. The country does not lean favorably toward Obama at this point by any other reliable poll of which I am aware, much less to a 57%”
The 57% figure doesn’t represent the percentage of the country that leans towards approval of the Obama administration. It represents (as I pointed out earlier) the percentage of those who neither approve nor disapprove of the Obama presidency who could be described as leaning towards approval. This is not a question other pollsters routinely ask.
“Also, the actions of the Democrats clearly indicate that their polling isn’t showing this kind of result, or as I wrote, they would be running against Republicans as impeders of completing the job the way the American people want.”
First of all, a significant number of those who think the legislation didn’t go far enough do not think the Democrats acquitted themselves creditably through the process. Secondly comparable numbers think the legislation went too far (though only 20% would go to the extent of favouring its repeal). Due to the “enthusiasm gap” that currently exists between liberal and conservative voters, the average politician who chooses to distance himself from “Obamacare” would probably gain more votes than he would lose.
The bottom line, Wesley, is that you refuse to accept the results of a poll because it happens to be inconsistent with your preconceptions and with a narrative you’ve been trying to construct.
September 27th, 2010 | 8:02 am
Raven Chukwu says:
“The bottom line, Wesley, is that you refuse to accept the results of a poll because it happens to be inconsistent with your preconceptions and with a narrative you’ve been trying to construct.”
Wesley, on these issues outside your primary focus (global warming, health care reform) I suggest you ponder whether you wish to be a propagandist or an intellectual contributor. Just because you express your opinion on your blog doesn’t exempt you from criticism.
You describe yourself as a former “MLK Liberal”. Reverend King stated, “Of all the forms of inequality, injustice in health care is the most shocking and inhumane.” Do you now believe the Reverend was wrong? You suggest that liberalism has changed, but liberals, including Dr. King, have long supported universal and just healthcare.
I’ve asked before and will t
September 27th, 2010 | 2:32 pm
Really Wes, I hope you have a good chiropractor, the way you’ve been bending over backwards to avoid reality on this poll, and on the success of the Canadian health care system in paying for that woman’s radical surgery.
I’ve found myself in your sort of position in the past on issues, and when I’ve found myself twisting myself out of shape to support a position, that position usually turns out to be wrong. That’s how I became a non-atheist, for one thing.
I think it’s time you seriously reconsider your position on “Obamacare” and possibly even acknowledge that, however awkward, it is a positive step forward in making health care more available to more Americans.
September 28th, 2010 | 10:49 am
[...] I posted about a survey taken under the AP’s auspices that showed 40% wanted even more government control over health care, while only 20% opposed it and wanted repeal. I don’t trust the survey for reasons I mentioned. I still think that, and have taken the careful responses from those who disagree–which I appreciate–into consideration. [...]
November 2nd, 2010 | 5:02 am
In my opinion, the real problem with Obama’s plan for health care reform is there are bigger issues to deal with at the moment. Our economy is in dire straights, and urgently needs the help of our government to get back to where it should be, and at least put a dent in our $13.6 Trillion debt. Yes, the latest reports indicate our economy is on the uptake, but those same reports also say it’s a much slower increase than we’ve had after previous recessions, and has a long way to go before it’s back to normal.
Get the economy under control first, THEN tackle the health care issue. I will readily admit the health care system is broken, and needs reform, but to try and fix it by increasing government spending when we’re already in such debt, and only paying the interest on it is nothing short of, well… shortsighted.
I think the only reason Obama is stressing the health care reform in the face of a sluggish economy is that he’s under the delusion that by passing the health care reform bill, he will get more favor from the citizens in the polls, get re-elected, and then tackle the economy (or maybe he hopes it will just fix itself. who knows?).
And this is the first poll I’ve seen in a long while that shows citizens ARE supporting the health care reform bill. Most people I talk to seem to want the health care reform, and think it will be good for the U.S. but granted, most of those people have (what I think) are some misconceptions of what ObamaCare really means.
Every news program and site I see shows Obama’s polls are down, and yet he still pushes for health care reform. I would beg him personally if I could to just deal with the economy first. Put a dent in our debt, get Americans believing in our economy again, THEN try and tackle our health care system.
(For any who care to see the health of our economy, see http://www.usdebtclock.org/ )
November 2nd, 2010 | 2:36 pm
“Obamacare” only moved us from the “absolutely and most utterly right-wing health care system in the industrialized world” to the “slightly-less absolutely and utterly right-wing health care system in the industrialized world”.
If you disagree, your argument must start with pointing which industrialized nation has a more right-wing system than we do.
Hint: There isn’t one, but Singapore and Switzerland are probably the closest.
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