1. Romney has reached the arbitrary but psychologically significant (for me and maybe only for me) lead of 1% in then RCP average. That is his biggest lead since October 13. More importantly, Obama’s average job approval is down to 48.3% . That is the lowest his job approval has been since his bounce from the Democratic National Convention. This is a much worse sign for Obama (if it holds up) than the head-to-head.
2. The stuff about “Romnesia” ain’t getting it done. Is the median voter out there thinking “You know, I’d vote for Obama again, if he would only sound more like a snide, but dim twelve year old. ”
3. The pro-Obama videos aren’t getting any less creepy. What is interesting is that this video isn’t really about changing anyone’s mind. There are too many left-leaning in-jokes about “fixing” gays, and killing polar bears, and too much political junkie stuff about Congress going home early. That stuff is meaningless to the medium information persuadable voter. It is more a preemptive abomination of the country in the case of an Obama defeat. It is also an unconscious self-satire of the hysteria, self-righteousness, and obliviousness of some Obama supporters. Come to think of it, the video is an abomination all by itself. The only good news is that it wasn’t put out by the Obama campaign.
4. I heard some of Obama’s New Hampshire speech today. He went on a long speech about how Romney had increased user fees in Massachusetts (the horror, the horror.) That is piddling stuff by itself, but I guess it could have formed part of a a compelling story that included Mediscare and Romney’s tax cut plan and stuff. You had to hear Obama’s tone of voice to really get a sense of his performance. The scorn and hostility undermined what he was trying to get across. He isn’t acting like a man who buys Nate Sivler’s analysis. And neither do I. Though I’m still expectiing a very narrow Obama win unless his average job approval ratings stays below 49%. I just don’t think Obama’s chances are nearly as strong as Silver suggests.